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August 12-? Severe Weather


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how did you make that? that is awesome

Well, I got the sounding from RUC Soundings (just google that). I added the 0-1SRH to the hodo by getting the direction and speed of the storm from GRLevel2AE. I then went and got the sfc data from mesowest, and you can modify the soundings (input temp, dewpoint, and pressure). I then calculated the 0-1 and 0-6 shear vector values by doing some calculation.

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Well, I got the sounding from RUC Soundings (just google that). I added the 0-1SRH to the hodo by getting the direction and speed of the storm from GRLevel2AE. I then went and got the sfc data from mesowest, and you can modify the soundings (input temp, dewpoint, and pressure). I then calculated the 0-1 and 0-6 shear vector values by doing some calculation.

very impressive man. i need to start doing that to refresh my math skills. it has been so long since i had my last math class for the major. so easy to forget

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Yeah, I'd like to calculate the helicity in my shaded region, but im not sure how.

i learned this cool trick where you make a grid on the hodograph and count the boxes. and i think it is like 25 for every box that falls into the shaded region. cant remember the exact value. it was something Jon Davies invented. i will see if i can find it sometime. the actual calculation for helicity is rather complex. lol

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From Tonite...note the bolded.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0922 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 767...

VALID 120222Z - 120315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 767 CONTINUES.

INTENSE SUPERCELLS HAVE PRODUCED SEVERAL TORNADO REPORTS ON THE TAIL

END OF THE SEVERE QLCS MOVING INTO NRN NEB THIS EVENING. NORTH

PLATTE VWP INFORMATION UPDATED WITH ESTIMATED STORM MOTION VECTOR OF

315 AT 34KT RESULTS IN 0-1KM SRH NEARING 700 M2/S2 ALONG AND AHEAD

OF THE THREE OR FOUR TAIL-END SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS CONTINUE

SPREADING INTO A ZONE WHERE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA. THUS...WOULD EXPECT A HIGH

PROBABILITY OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES...DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE

HAIL...AND TORNADOES...TO CONTINUE...PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND

ERN AREAS OF TORNADO WATCH 767 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 08/12/2011

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 42940275 42989834 41719834 41720203 41970202 41990267

42940275

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From Tonite...note the bolded.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0922 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 767...

VALID 120222Z - 120315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 767 CONTINUES.

INTENSE SUPERCELLS HAVE PRODUCED SEVERAL TORNADO REPORTS ON THE TAIL

END OF THE SEVERE QLCS MOVING INTO NRN NEB THIS EVENING. NORTH

PLATTE VWP INFORMATION UPDATED WITH ESTIMATED STORM MOTION VECTOR OF

315 AT 34KT RESULTS IN 0-1KM SRH NEARING 700 M2/S2 ALONG AND AHEAD

OF THE THREE OR FOUR TAIL-END SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS CONTINUE

SPREADING INTO A ZONE WHERE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA. THUS...WOULD EXPECT A HIGH

PROBABILITY OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES...DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE

HAIL...AND TORNADOES...TO CONTINUE...PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND

ERN AREAS OF TORNADO WATCH 767 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 08/12/2011

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 42940275 42989834 41719834 41720203 41970202 41990267

42940275

I believe this event and 4/27 are the highest in regards to 0-1km SRH that ive seen.

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Enough helicity to make the Eye of Sauron appear within the hook.

From Tonite...note the bolded.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0922 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 767...

VALID 120222Z - 120315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 767 CONTINUES.

INTENSE SUPERCELLS HAVE PRODUCED SEVERAL TORNADO REPORTS ON THE TAIL

END OF THE SEVERE QLCS MOVING INTO NRN NEB THIS EVENING. NORTH

PLATTE VWP INFORMATION UPDATED WITH ESTIMATED STORM MOTION VECTOR OF

315 AT 34KT RESULTS IN 0-1KM SRH NEARING 700 M2/S2 ALONG AND AHEAD

OF THE THREE OR FOUR TAIL-END SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS CONTINUE

SPREADING INTO A ZONE WHERE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA. THUS...WOULD EXPECT A HIGH

PROBABILITY OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES...DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE

HAIL...AND TORNADOES...TO CONTINUE...PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND

ERN AREAS OF TORNADO WATCH 767 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 08/12/2011

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 42940275 42989834 41719834 41720203 41970202 41990267

42940275

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I believe this event and 4/27 are the highest in regards to 0-1km SRH that ive seen.

I've seen some higher helicity values in wintertime, with lesser instability values of course. From what I recall Super Tuesday had some outrageous values when the AL EF4's hit in the morning.

But of course, for August, 700 m2/s2 is very impressive.

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Also, welcome bennyc50 to the boards. http://www.americanw.../6044-bennyc50/

I have tried to get him posting for almost a year now. We can add another Grand Forks, ND met to the list. Kick butt severe weather/chaser/researcher who also graduated from UND with me. Now he is a meteorology programming nerd. Friend him.

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Also, welcome bennyc50 to the boards. http://www.americanw.../6044-bennyc50/

I have tried to get him posting for almost a year now. We can add another Grand Forks, ND met to the list. Kick butt severe weather/chaser/researcher who also graduated from UND with me. Now he is a meteorology programming nerd. Friend him.

Done.

Also, day 4-8 hinting at something next week...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0338 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...

WITH THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE ERN U.S. PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING

OFFSHORE DAY 4 /MON. 8-15/ -- AND THUS LIKELIHOOD FOR ONLY LIMITED

SEVERE STORM THREAT...MAIN CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED

TO THE N CENTRAL CONUS.

HERE...MODELS FORECAST SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE FEATURES TO CREST -- AND

EVENTUALLY SUPPRESS -- THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS...A

SEVERAL DAY PERIOD /DAY 4 TO DAY 6 -- MON. 8-15 THROUGH WED. 8-17/

OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT.

ATTM HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM HIGHLIGHTING ANY SPECIFIC THREAT

AREAS...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARD TO TIMING AND INTENSITY

OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES -- AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PATTERN EVOLUTION.

NONETHELESS...EXPECT THREAT AREAS TO BE ADDED TO OUTLOOKS NEARER IN

TIME TO THE ANTICIPATED EVENTS...AS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE

WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ON ONE OR MORE OF THESE DAYS.

..GOSS.. 08/12/2011

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0622 PM TSTM WND GST PRATT 37.65N 98.74W

08/12/2011 E80 MPH PRATT KS PUBLIC

0611 PM TSTM WND GST 1 W PRATT 37.65N 98.75W

08/12/2011 M80 MPH PRATT KS EMERGENCY MNGR

0607 PM TSTM WND GST 5 W PRATT 37.65N 98.83W

08/12/2011 M75 MPH PRATT KS EMERGENCY MNGR

0601 PM TSTM WND GST 3 ENE CULLISON 37.64N 98.85W

08/12/2011 E65.00 MPH PRATT KS PUBLIC

0545 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SSW HAVILAND 37.60N 99.12W

08/12/2011 E75 MPH KIOWA KS PUBLIC

THREE INCH TREE LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN.

0542 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W HAVILAND 37.62N 99.14W

08/12/2011 E70 MPH KIOWA KS STORM CHASER

TREES BEING TORN APART, AIRBORN DEBRIS FROM FARM HOUSE UP

THE ROAD - SPOTTER NETWORK

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

544 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

BARBER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

PRATT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 540 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP

TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN

EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WELLSFORD...AND

MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CROFT...

CULLISON...

SUN CITY...

COATS...

LAKE CITY...

IUKA...

PRATT...

SAWYER...

MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF BARBER AND PRATT COUNTIES.

AT 5:41 PM CDT...A STORM CHASER REPORTED 60 MPH WIND GUSTS 2 MILES

WEST OF CULLISON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE

SEEK A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS

PASSED.

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Video of the Wood Lake tornado last evening from severestudios.com

They called in reports to us last nite (jeff Gonzales).

Spectacular tornado.

Monday night and Tuesday are looking quite interesting up here.

Yeah was looking at that, with an impulse and associated vort max ejecting ahead of the main trough and enough instability to possibly get something to going. The hodos/skew-t aren't bad on both models with solid veering with height.

This is also considering that you haven't gotten much in the way of severe weather this summer up there with it mainly staying south of the border...

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Watch to be issued soon.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1145 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN IL...SERN WI...NRN IND...SWRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 131645Z - 131745Z

A WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

AS THE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY

ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES

REGION...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY

INTENSIFYING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN LOWER

MICHIGAN. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND

DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE...NOW OVER

SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE

IMPULSE AND EMBEDDED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER DIGGING ACROSS IOWA.

AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING DEVELOPS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH

18-20Z...STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEST AND SOUTH OF

CHICAGO...THROUGH THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA AND ADJACENT

NORTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT MODEST...BUT A

BAND OF 30-40 KT FLOW IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER MAY ENHANCE

CONVECTION...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN WITH

HEATING OF THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. IT PROBABLY IS

STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY FROM A MORE SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR

POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS...WHICH MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL

AFTER 20-21Z SOUTH AND EAST OF CHICAGO THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA.

HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND

MODESTLY LARGE CAPE /ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ MAY BE

CONDUCIVE TO INCREASING LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IN STRONGER STORMS

UNTIL THEN.

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Watch is out.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 775

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS

NORTHERN INDIANA

SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN

FAR NORTHWESTERN OHIO

LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1215 PM UNTIL

700 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF

BLOOMINGTON ILLINOIS TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON MICHIGAN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL NEWD INTO SRN LAKE

MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE

AFTERNOON HOURS AS THEY ENCOUNTER A WARMING AND DESTABILIZING AIR

MASS. COLD AIR ALOFT FAVORS SOME STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL...THOUGH

THE GREATER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORM

OUTFLOWS CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR MCS WITHIN THE DEEP AND MODERATELY

STRONG WLY TROPOSPHERIC WINDS.

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