Radtechwxman Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Made a little skew-t tonight of that insane supercell that had an incredible signature near Purdum, NE. My 0-6km looks a scosch on the small side compared to RUC/Mesoanalysis, but ive checked it like 3 times. 1km: 170 at 15kts 6km: 289 at 49kts how did you make that? that is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 how did you make that? that is awesome Well, I got the sounding from RUC Soundings (just google that). I added the 0-1SRH to the hodo by getting the direction and speed of the storm from GRLevel2AE. I then went and got the sfc data from mesowest, and you can modify the soundings (input temp, dewpoint, and pressure). I then calculated the 0-1 and 0-6 shear vector values by doing some calculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Well, I got the sounding from RUC Soundings (just google that). I added the 0-1SRH to the hodo by getting the direction and speed of the storm from GRLevel2AE. I then went and got the sfc data from mesowest, and you can modify the soundings (input temp, dewpoint, and pressure). I then calculated the 0-1 and 0-6 shear vector values by doing some calculation. very impressive man. i need to start doing that to refresh my math skills. it has been so long since i had my last math class for the major. so easy to forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 very impressive man. i need to start doing that to refresh my math skills. it has been so long since i had my last math class for the major. so easy to forget Yeah, I'd like to calculate the helicity in my shaded region, but im not sure how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Yeah, I'd like to calculate the helicity in my shaded region, but im not sure how. i learned this cool trick where you make a grid on the hodograph and count the boxes. and i think it is like 25 for every box that falls into the shaded region. cant remember the exact value. it was something Jon Davies invented. i will see if i can find it sometime. the actual calculation for helicity is rather complex. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Bah winds. At least the tornado threat is low today and the NAM came in a little more tame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 From Tonite...note the bolded. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0922 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 767... VALID 120222Z - 120315Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 767 CONTINUES. INTENSE SUPERCELLS HAVE PRODUCED SEVERAL TORNADO REPORTS ON THE TAIL END OF THE SEVERE QLCS MOVING INTO NRN NEB THIS EVENING. NORTH PLATTE VWP INFORMATION UPDATED WITH ESTIMATED STORM MOTION VECTOR OF 315 AT 34KT RESULTS IN 0-1KM SRH NEARING 700 M2/S2 ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE THREE OR FOUR TAIL-END SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING INTO A ZONE WHERE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA. THUS...WOULD EXPECT A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES...DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES...TO CONTINUE...PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS OF TORNADO WATCH 767 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 08/12/2011 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42940275 42989834 41719834 41720203 41970202 41990267 42940275 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 From Tonite...note the bolded. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0922 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 767... VALID 120222Z - 120315Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 767 CONTINUES. INTENSE SUPERCELLS HAVE PRODUCED SEVERAL TORNADO REPORTS ON THE TAIL END OF THE SEVERE QLCS MOVING INTO NRN NEB THIS EVENING. NORTH PLATTE VWP INFORMATION UPDATED WITH ESTIMATED STORM MOTION VECTOR OF 315 AT 34KT RESULTS IN 0-1KM SRH NEARING 700 M2/S2 ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE THREE OR FOUR TAIL-END SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING INTO A ZONE WHERE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA. THUS...WOULD EXPECT A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES...DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES...TO CONTINUE...PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS OF TORNADO WATCH 767 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 08/12/2011 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42940275 42989834 41719834 41720203 41970202 41990267 42940275 I believe this event and 4/27 are the highest in regards to 0-1km SRH that ive seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennyc50 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Enough helicity to make the Eye of Sauron appear within the hook. From Tonite...note the bolded. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0922 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 767... VALID 120222Z - 120315Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 767 CONTINUES. INTENSE SUPERCELLS HAVE PRODUCED SEVERAL TORNADO REPORTS ON THE TAIL END OF THE SEVERE QLCS MOVING INTO NRN NEB THIS EVENING. NORTH PLATTE VWP INFORMATION UPDATED WITH ESTIMATED STORM MOTION VECTOR OF 315 AT 34KT RESULTS IN 0-1KM SRH NEARING 700 M2/S2 ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE THREE OR FOUR TAIL-END SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING INTO A ZONE WHERE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA. THUS...WOULD EXPECT A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES...DAMAGING WINDS... LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES...TO CONTINUE...PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS OF TORNADO WATCH 767 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 08/12/2011 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42940275 42989834 41719834 41720203 41970202 41990267 42940275 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Enough helicity to make the Eye of Sauron appear within the hook. Haha, welcome to the boards my friend. Yes, that eye feature was crazy. A miso-scale Eye Of Sauron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I believe this event and 4/27 are the highest in regards to 0-1km SRH that ive seen. We were just talking about that at the office tonite. Right up there with the crazy storm environments of 4/27 in terms of low level shear/helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I believe this event and 4/27 are the highest in regards to 0-1km SRH that ive seen. I've seen some higher helicity values in wintertime, with lesser instability values of course. From what I recall Super Tuesday had some outrageous values when the AL EF4's hit in the morning. But of course, for August, 700 m2/s2 is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Also, welcome bennyc50 to the boards. http://www.americanw.../6044-bennyc50/ I have tried to get him posting for almost a year now. We can add another Grand Forks, ND met to the list. Kick butt severe weather/chaser/researcher who also graduated from UND with me. Now he is a meteorology programming nerd. Friend him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Also, welcome bennyc50 to the boards. http://www.americanw.../6044-bennyc50/ I have tried to get him posting for almost a year now. We can add another Grand Forks, ND met to the list. Kick butt severe weather/chaser/researcher who also graduated from UND with me. Now he is a meteorology programming nerd. Friend him. Done. Also, day 4-8 hinting at something next week... DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011 VALID 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... WITH THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE ERN U.S. PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DAY 4 /MON. 8-15/ -- AND THUS LIKELIHOOD FOR ONLY LIMITED SEVERE STORM THREAT...MAIN CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE N CENTRAL CONUS. HERE...MODELS FORECAST SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE FEATURES TO CREST -- AND EVENTUALLY SUPPRESS -- THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS...A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD /DAY 4 TO DAY 6 -- MON. 8-15 THROUGH WED. 8-17/ OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT. ATTM HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM HIGHLIGHTING ANY SPECIFIC THREAT AREAS...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARD TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES -- AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PATTERN EVOLUTION. NONETHELESS...EXPECT THREAT AREAS TO BE ADDED TO OUTLOOKS NEARER IN TIME TO THE ANTICIPATED EVENTS...AS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ON ONE OR MORE OF THESE DAYS. ..GOSS.. 08/12/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Video of the Wood Lake tornado last evening from severestudios.com They called in reports to us last nite (jeff Gonzales). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Monday night and Tuesday are looking quite interesting up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 TOG southwest of Freeport, IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 TOG southwest of Freeport, IL. Hope that's not from our old friend Matt lol. Can see the tops of that storm from here. Pretty sweet looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Heading west on 72 to make a play on this thing. Cell seems to be holding together although the parameters that do exist drop off as it heads east. We'll see . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 0622 PM TSTM WND GST PRATT 37.65N 98.74W 08/12/2011 E80 MPH PRATT KS PUBLIC 0611 PM TSTM WND GST 1 W PRATT 37.65N 98.75W 08/12/2011 M80 MPH PRATT KS EMERGENCY MNGR 0607 PM TSTM WND GST 5 W PRATT 37.65N 98.83W 08/12/2011 M75 MPH PRATT KS EMERGENCY MNGR 0601 PM TSTM WND GST 3 ENE CULLISON 37.64N 98.85W 08/12/2011 E65.00 MPH PRATT KS PUBLIC 0545 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SSW HAVILAND 37.60N 99.12W 08/12/2011 E75 MPH KIOWA KS PUBLIC THREE INCH TREE LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN. 0542 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W HAVILAND 37.62N 99.14W 08/12/2011 E70 MPH KIOWA KS STORM CHASER TREES BEING TORN APART, AIRBORN DEBRIS FROM FARM HOUSE UP THE ROAD - SPOTTER NETWORK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 544 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... BARBER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS... PRATT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT * AT 540 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WELLSFORD...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CROFT... CULLISON... SUN CITY... COATS... LAKE CITY... IUKA... PRATT... SAWYER... MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF BARBER AND PRATT COUNTIES. AT 5:41 PM CDT...A STORM CHASER REPORTED 60 MPH WIND GUSTS 2 MILES WEST OF CULLISON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE SEEK A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Hope that's not from our old friend Matt lol. Can see the tops of that storm from here. Pretty sweet looking. You never know... It has yet to be logged in LSR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Video of the Wood Lake tornado last evening from severestudios.com They called in reports to us last nite (jeff Gonzales). Spectacular tornado. Monday night and Tuesday are looking quite interesting up here. Yeah was looking at that, with an impulse and associated vort max ejecting ahead of the main trough and enough instability to possibly get something to going. The hodos/skew-t aren't bad on both models with solid veering with height. This is also considering that you haven't gotten much in the way of severe weather this summer up there with it mainly staying south of the border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 So was any damage found in the survey today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 All going to depend where the front is when we get convection to fire around or after 18z or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Watch to be issued soon. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN IL...SERN WI...NRN IND...SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON VALID 131645Z - 131745Z A WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED SOON. AS THE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE AND EMBEDDED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER DIGGING ACROSS IOWA. AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING DEVELOPS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 18-20Z...STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEST AND SOUTH OF CHICAGO...THROUGH THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT MODEST...BUT A BAND OF 30-40 KT FLOW IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. IT PROBABLY IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY FROM A MORE SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS...WHICH MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 20-21Z SOUTH AND EAST OF CHICAGO THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND MODESTLY LARGE CAPE /ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO INCREASING LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IN STRONGER STORMS UNTIL THEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Hey LAF guys, no mention of the fact that you're in the bullseye of a slight risk today? 30% on wind. It could get interesting later this afternoon for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Watch is out. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 775 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTHERN INDIANA SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FAR NORTHWESTERN OHIO LAKE MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1215 PM UNTIL 700 PM CDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLOOMINGTON ILLINOIS TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL NEWD INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THEY ENCOUNTER A WARMING AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. COLD AIR ALOFT FAVORS SOME STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL...THOUGH THE GREATER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORM OUTFLOWS CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR MCS WITHIN THE DEEP AND MODERATELY STRONG WLY TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 3 miles west of downtown Woodstock. Had heavy rain and a short burst of pea size hail. Wind gusts maxed around 35 mph. Good luck down stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Bud Billiken back to school parade on Chicago south side. 500,000 crowd was expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.