Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 NWS Lincoln is already hinting toward a Friday severe weather threat in the Midwest: http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=IL&prodtype=special Also hints of such a threat being indicated in the SPC's Day 4-8 outlook: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted August 10, 2011 Author Share Posted August 10, 2011 Large slight risk on the new Day 3 (Friday) from the Northern/Central Plains down into the Lower/mid-Mississippi Valley: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 204hrs on the 12z GFS would be fun around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Although we are still far out, parameters are looking pretty nasty next week (particularly the 174 hr GFS) into the Northern Plains (mainly SD) into Minnesota, with an impulse ejecting eastward ahead of the main Canadian trough along with some really nice theta-e and 35-50 kt southwesterly/westerly flow at 500mb feeding into the area. A warm EML layer may easily disrupt this like the previous several in the Northern Plains, however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Although we are still far out, parameters are looking pretty nasty next week (particularly the 174 hr GFS) into the Northern Plains (mainly SD) into Minnesota, with an impulse ejecting eastward ahead of the main Canadian trough along with some really nice theta-e and 35-50 kt southwesterly/westerly flow at 500mb feeding into the area. A warm EML layer may easily disrupt this like the previous several in the Northern Plains, however... too early to get into details about wind speeds at 174hr..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Yeah I guess I'm beginning to realize that nothing is remotely easy to predict that far out at this time of year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I'd be watching good ole Cherry county NE tomorrow if I were out chasing, just glancing at the 0z runs. A nice WNW mid-level jet around 40kts or so and the LLJ gets cranking after 0z which helps to low-level shear. Anything can stay discrete till that gets going, it might be worth the trip for anyone out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Once again right in baro's backyard, wonder if he'll make the trip... Edit: New day 1 agrees with you, rather large 5% tornado/30% wind/30% sig-hail across NE and SD. Also, look at this... DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2011 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID-LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... VORT MAX NOW OVER WA STATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE N-CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST FROM SERN STATES WNWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND OK/KS. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MS VALLEY AREAS... RESERVOIR OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NWD AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES SELY EAST OF CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH. WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN EML PLUME WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE-STRONG MLCAPE FROM NRN OK THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MS VALLEY. PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE LIKELIHOOD ONGOING STORMS FRIDAY MORNING...AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS NORTH OF FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON NOSE OF SSWLY LLJ FROM ERN NEB THROUGH A PORTION OF ERN KS AND MID MS VALLEY. DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AND REDEVELOP ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL JET ALONG BASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS EVOLUTION INTO MCS CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING. ..DIAL.. 08/11/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 yeah not fond of the Day 2. It's weird having T-storms in August anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Once again right in baro's backyard, wonder if he'll make the trip... Edit: New day 1 agrees with you, rather large 5% tornado/30% wind/30% sig-hail across NE and SD. Also, look at this... Working. It will be another busy day of severe weather tomorrow... Tonight was a little surprise in terms of the severe activity across the northern portion of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I'd be watching good ole Cherry county NE tomorrow if I were out chasing, just glancing at the 0z runs. A nice WNW mid-level jet around 40kts or so and the LLJ gets cranking after 0z which helps to low-level shear. Anything can stay discrete till that gets going, it might be worth the trip for anyone out. Tomorrow is going to be very interesting. For Nebraska looks more like an April/May setup than late August with the afternoon dryline bulge. In all honesty, I think the late arriving upper wave will keep dryline activity isolated...combined with the relatively low LCL-LFC RH's expected. Looks to ramp up during the evening as the aforementioned upper wave begins to eject and large scale forcing for ascent/increasingly divergent straight jet max combines with nocturnal cooling to support a decent nocturnal/dynamic LLJ. Ongoing DMC will likely develop into organized clusters with the inverted V low levels. Big hailers will likely transition to more of a wind threat although the supercells will also likely yield possible significant wind. Effective shear will be pretty darned impressive...in excess of 55-60 knots. Significant instability (2000-2500 MLCAPE) combined with the impressive shear yields a nice Bulk Richardson number tomorrow. Going to be an interesting day. Personally I am getting sick of severe weather, but I am interested in seeing how the events of tomorrow unfold. Like any severe event there will be surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Kind of a strange pattern for the Central/Southern Plains in Mid August, I have to say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 For Thursday: For Friday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 For Thursday: For Friday Sigtor looks interesting tomorrow. Big question will be if cells initiating along the dryline and/or terrain of the Black Hills/northern NE make it into that favorable low LCL environment. Storm motions looks to be slow and will favor strong right turning supers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 New Day 2 has a hatched area in much of central/eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma--and introduces the severe risk here in central Illinois just in time for the start of the Illinois State Fair here in Springfield: http://www.spc.noaa....k/day2otlk.html Two years ago the Wednesday of the State Fair--Aug. 19, 2009--was the day of the EF3 Williamsville tornado (and I vividly recall reports of the funnel clouds which eventually spawned that storm to be briefly over the State Fairgrounds on the north side of Springfield). Also Manchester (Morgan County south of Jacksonville) and Loami (southwest of Springfield) were among those hit--Loami for the second time in 2009 (they had also been hit that Mar. 8) and the third time since 2006 (they were also hit hard in the March 12, 2006 tornado outbreak which eventually slammed the south and east parts of Springfield). Lincoln NWS writeup below: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/?n=19aug09 Here's the link to Eastern's coverage of the Aug. 19, 2009 Midwest tornado outbreak--including Williamsville and Loami in central Illinois: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/203626-819-severe-weather-threat/ Then severe weather/heavy rain hit again last year on the Friday nights of the State Fair too--washing out the Lady Antebellum concert that was heavy hyped and promoted for that first Friday night. I only wonder what 2011 has in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Two years ago the Wednesday of the State Fair--Aug. 19, 2009--was the day of the EF3 Williamsville tornado (and I vividly recall reports of the funnel clouds which eventually spawned that storm to be briefly over the State Fairgrounds on the north side of Springfield). Also Manchester (Morgan County south of Jacksonville) and Loami (southwest of Springfield) were among those hit--Loami for the second time in 2009 (they had also been hit that Mar. 8) and the third time since 2006 (they were also hit hard in the March 12, 2006 tornado outbreak which eventually slammed the south and east parts of Springfield). Lincoln NWS writeup below: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/?n=19aug09 Here's the link to Eastern's coverage of the Aug. 19, 2009 Midwest tornado outbreak--including Williamsville and Loami in central Illinois: http://www.easternus...weather-threat/ I saw that tornado, not till it was near Elkhart though, did pretty major damage to a families barn and house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 New Day 2 has a hatched area in much of central/eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma--and introduces the severe risk here in central Illinois just in time for the start of the Illinois State Fair here in Springfield: http://www.spc.noaa....k/day2otlk.html Two years ago the Wednesday of the State Fair--Aug. 19, 2009--was the day of the EF3 Williamsville tornado (and I vividly recall reports of the funnel clouds which eventually spawned that storm to be briefly over the State Fairgrounds on the north side of Springfield). Also Manchester (Morgan County south of Jacksonville) and Loami (southwest of Springfield) were among those hit--Loami for the second time in 2009 (they had also been hit that Mar. 8) and the third time since 2006 (they were also hit hard in the March 12, 2006 tornado outbreak which eventually slammed the south and east parts of Springfield). Lincoln NWS writeup below: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/?n=19aug09 Here's the link to Eastern's coverage of the Aug. 19, 2009 Midwest tornado outbreak--including Williamsville and Loami in central Illinois: http://www.easternus...weather-threat/ Then severe weather/heavy rain hit again last year on the Friday nights of the State Fair too--washing out the Lady Antebellum concert that was heavy hyped and promoted for that first Friday night. I only wonder what 2011 has in store. I remember that event very well, we were at the fair. As for tomorrow, I hope we can get a nice soaking rain, the soybeans need it bad around here. Don't need the severe though because the corn is 10ft tall and it would all go down with a little wind. It does look like our best chance for rain in three weeks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Different configuration on the Day 2. Mentions wind damage and possible tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 766 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 310 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 140 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PHILIP SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WEST CENTRAL SD...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE LOW LEVEL JET IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN /30 KT AT KLBF RDA/ AND THIS IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO LIFT NWD INTO SRN SD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER WITH HEIGHT PROVIDING A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE AND FORM INTO A SEWD MOVING BOWING QLCS BY THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025. ...WEISS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Possible couplet on the discrete storm to the southwest of the line. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 231 PM MDT THU AUG 11 2011 SDC033-047-103-113-112115- /O.CON.KUNR.SV.W.0352.000000T0000Z-110811T2115Z/ SHANNON SD-PENNINGTON SD-CUSTER SD-FALL RIVER SD- 231 PM MDT THU AUG 11 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN FALL RIVER...EASTERN CUSTER...SOUTH CENTRAL PENNINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MDT... AT 228 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DANGEROUS AND EXTREMELY LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RED SHIRT...OR 29 MILES NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN HOT SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ROCKYFORD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weunice Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Yeah in the severe weather statement issued after the warning they went up from ping pong sized hail to softball sized hail with that one as well. EDIT: Now down to Tennis Ball sized ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I bet this supercell is a beauty in person as it is on radar. extremely elevated as of now though with 88/59..thats like a 1900m LCL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Edit: Nvm, here's the watch... URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 767 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 435 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 435 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. SEVERAL TORNADOES SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL ISOLATED HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF MULLEN NEBRASKA TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ONEILL NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 766... DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SD...AND WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MEANWHILE...INCREASING CU FIELD MAY ALSO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO FORM OVER NORTHERN NEB THIS EVENING. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND AMPLE CAPE WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DURING THE EVENING ALSO INDICATE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 The storms in South Dakota are in one of those frustrating radar holes at the moment. They're on the edges of some of the surrounding 88D sites, but too far away from all of them to get a good scan on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Tornados are devloping on the SW part of the Bow Echo in north central Nebraska. Parameters actually look good if they stay discrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Tornado warned supercell just about to exit Cherry Co. Nebraska. Reports of confirmed tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 TOG for the last 10 minutes on this cam. http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=jeffrey.gonzales&uid=270 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 A nice white tube! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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