ORH_wxman Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Many a Nina autumn starts warm. I don't see a huge reason that this one will be any different. September 2010, 2008, and 2007 were all torches and happened in La Nina, the cooler Septembers of 2009 and 2006 were El Nino Septembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Many a Nina autumn starts warm. I don't see a huge reason that this one will be any different. September 2010, 2008, and 2007 were all torches and happened in La Nina, the cooler Septembers of 2009 and 2006 were El Nino Septembers. If and when the NAO goes positive after this upcoming storm, we should definitely see a warmer regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 If and when the NAO goes positive after this upcoming storm, we should definitely see a warmer regime. It actually looks like it wants to go back negative again too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I don't think the NAO will have much affect on us over the next month unless its quite potent....when we transition from early summer to late summer and autumn, the NAO becomes its least influential out of the year. That said, if you get a perfect block close by, then it can be of large influence. Just as an example, last year we had a -NAO in September and torched, while in 2009 we had one of the few big +NAO months recently and it was cool. In October, the NAO really begins affecting us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 I guarantee you MRG has been above average for his location for this month and last just like everyone else. To claim it's been cool is nonsense. What does this have to do with my post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I don't think the NAO will have much affect on us over the next month unless its quite potent....when we transition from early summer to late summer and autumn, the NAO becomes its least influential out of the year. That said, if you get a perfect block close by, then it can be of large influence. Just as an example, last year we had a -NAO in September and torched, while in 2009 we had one of the few big +NAO months recently and it was cool. In October, the NAO really begins affecting us again. It really hasn't influenced the summer-time troughing that some were hoping for, but that's probably because of the nuclear ridge that we've had over the last two summers. At least this year, we've had fronts penetrate into SNE, but last year had so many of those 85-90 post fropa airmasses, near sea level. I think there is a correlaition to the AMO and ridging across the southeast into Atlantic...although the AMO is lower than is was last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 What does this have to do with my post? He is old and senile... He forgets things Pete will claim it has been cool all summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 He is old and senile... He forgets things Pete will claim it has been cool all summer It certainly hasn't been an exceptionally warm summer. Yet another cool August day here @ 2k. Very Very nice. Where is all the heat and humidity these warministas having been touting. Hot August phail, Dry August phail.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 It certainly hasn't been an exceptionally warm summer. Yet another cool August day here @ 2k. Very Very nice. Where is all the heat and humidity these warministas having been touting. Hot August phail, Dry August phail.lol Currently 70.7F at the abode... scorcha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I'm not a torch mongerer by any means...just statin' the facts. Your time will come...your first frost seems to occur around mid to late September. Typically around the 15th. The last few years it has been 15th to 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 What does this have to do with my post? About as much as your reply did to mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 He is old and senile... He forgets things Pete will claim it has been cool all summer I do get brain fog. They started work on your 4-pack at WaWa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 It certainly hasn't been an exceptionally warm summer. Yet another cool August day here @ 2k. Very Very nice. Where is all the heat and humidity these warministas having been touting. Hot August phail, Dry August phail.lol I can't wait for winter to get here that way everybody wants it to be below normal so that it can snow early. All this denying of the cool and wet summer is starting to take its toll. Ill admit there seems to have been more days above the normal average but it has not been anything that will be remembered as a hot summer it will be remembered as that average wet summer with a week or so of very hot temps with the century mark being cracked a few times. I just dont see this summer as anything more than warm at best. Torch fail, dry fail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Typically around the 15th. The last few years it has been 15th to 19th. I had mine around the 9th-10th of Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I had mine around the 9th-10th of Oct. The elevated valleys like where Pete is, defintely get to freezing much faster before any of us. Your first frost data is ahead of Kevin, but that's because TAN can radiate like the moon, with sandy soils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I do get brain fog. They started work on your 4-pack at WaWa! My memory has gone down the toilet the past 5 years or so... maybe having kids does it to you??? Had not looked much at the Wachusett site, but that is good to hear. How is the patio thing going? (Deck?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I can't wait for winter to get here that way everybody wants it to be below normal so that it can snow early. All this denying of the cool and wet summer is starting to take its toll. Ill admit there seems to have been more days above the normal average but it has not been anything that will be remembered as a hot summer it will be remembered as that average wet summer with a week or so of very hot temps with the century mark being cracked a few times. I just dont see this summer as anything more than warm at best. Torch fail, dry fail... Mostly true, though "wet" doesn't apply to slightly droughty central Maine (and doesn't suffice for N.Maine, where "drowned" might be a better fit. They've had enough rain to float Vim Toot's tugboat.) June, and so far in August, haven't been that abnormal for temp, but that "week or so of very hot temps" combined with a scarcity of cool wx (few strong arctic highs, no rainy cool spells) to give many NE/MA locations a top 10 July for temp. For PWM it was #1. 1st frost IMBY has been in Sept. 13 straight years, and has ranged from 1st to 30th, avg is 17th. In Farmington, the median date is 9/19. They've had 1st frost in Sept in 90% of yrs 1893 on, Oct. 7%, August 3%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 My memory has gone down the toilet the past 5 years or so... maybe having kids does it to you??? Had not looked much at the Wachusett site, but that is good to hear. How is the patio thing going? (Deck?) Still working on it. Time has not been on my side. Digging is not fun. Hopefully i can get a full day on it tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Mostly true, though "wet" doesn't apply to slightly droughty central Maine (and doesn't suffice for N.Maine, where "drowned" might be a better fit. They've had enough rain to float Vim Toot's tugboat.) June, and so far in August, haven't been that abnormal for temp, but that "week or so of very hot temps" combined with a scarcity of cool wx (few strong arctic highs, no rainy cool spells) to give many NE/MA locations a top 10 July for temp. For PWM it was #1. 1st frost IMBY has been in Sept. 13 straight years, and has ranged from 1st to 30th, avg is 17th. In Farmington, the median date is 9/19. They've had 1st frost in Sept in 90% of yrs 1893 on, Oct. 7%, August 3%. Lucky for you guys up in Maine. Defining frost as 36F and lower (using NCDC standards), the 1981-2010 average for BDR is Oct. 17 with 1-in-10 years not reaching that temperature until November. Only three times since 1948 (9/21/56, 9/24/63, and 9/28/57) has BDR had its first frost before October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Lucky for you guys up in Maine. Defining frost as 36F and lower (using NCDC standards), the 1981-2010 average for BDR is Oct. 17 with 1-in-10 years not reaching that temperature until November. Only three times since 1948 (9/21/56, 9/24/63, and 9/28/57) has BDR had its first frost before October. Not to be picky, but that defintiion applies more to rural areas where they radiate much better. Chances are at BDR..if they are 36, the ground level temp won't be too far from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Not to be picky, but that defintiion applies more to rural areas where the radiate much better. Chances are at BDR..if they are 36, the ground level temp won't be too far from there. Agreed, and I initially used 35 as the threshold, just to be on the safe side, but I figured I might as well stick with the official thresholds since the occurrence of frost isn't recorded as part of the climate record. Using 35F as the frost threshold, the average date moves up from 10/17 to 10/20. If I use 34F, the average date increases to 10/23, so it's about a three day increase in the average date of first occurrence per degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Agreed, and I initially used 35 as the threshold, just to be on the safe side, but I figured I might as well stick with the official thresholds since the occurrence of frost isn't recorded as part of the climate record. Using 35F as the frost threshold, the average date moves up from 10/17 to 10/20. If I use 34F, the average date increases to 10/23, so it's about a three day increase in the average date of first occurrence per degree. I just keep it simple and go 32F. If you start getting all cute with this, then it becomes more confusing and variable from location to location. I do understand how you can be like 35F at the shelter level, and 32 at ground level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 75.8F for a high so far... currently 73F/60F Not bad for mid August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I just keep it simple and go 32F. If you start getting all cute with this, then it becomes more confusing and variable from location to location. I do understand how you can be like 35F at the shelter level, and 32 at ground level. Just to be clear, the data I quoted for Farmington and MBY is all based on 32F at the instrument. KISS principle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Just to be clear, the data I quoted for Farmington and MBY is all based on 32F at the instrument. KISS principle. But isn't that a freeze? How do you define frost which can occur at 2-meter temperatures above 32? If you're the NWS running a frost/freeze program, how do you differentiate a frost from a freeze for those with agricultural interests? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 But isn't that a freeze? How do you define frost which can occur at 2-meter temperatures above 32? If you're the NWS running a frost/freeze program, how do you differentiate a frost from a freeze for those with agricultural interests? Do they issue frost warnings at 36F and freeze at 32? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Do they issue frost warnings at 36F and freeze at 32? Not sure. Don't think it's a hard and fast rule, but frost advisories seem to start when lows are forecast in the mid-30s. NCDC also uses the 36/32/28 thresholds when publishing frost/freeze probabilities which I assume is their frost/freeze/hard freeze levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I can't wait for winter to get here that way everybody wants it to be below normal so that it can snow early. All this denying of the cool and wet summer is starting to take its toll. Ill admit there seems to have been more days above the normal average but it has not been anything that will be remembered as a hot summer it will be remembered as that average wet summer with a week or so of very hot temps with the century mark being cracked a few times. I just dont see this summer as anything more than warm at best. Torch fail, dry fail... It really is.lol Where are the record highs? Where are the heat advisories and ozone alerts?lol There was a predictable warm spell at the end of July but other than 2-3 days there has been nothing even remarkable. There'll be a last hurrah around Labor Day and then game over. That's my take on things at least. Meanwhile, another beautiful day in the low 70's with low dp's goes in the record book as we move closer and closer to our snowy fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 We might not hit 90 here again until next year!! Fall is coming Summer isnt that bad anymore though considering i work in one of the largest freezers in the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 66/56, a high of 73 (70 @ 2k), Just a spectacular day start to finish. Top 10 of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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