am19psu Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Obvious question- if 92L and 93L both do develop, will 93L surpress the track of 92L and vice versa, and the automatic fish has a shot at the Caribbean and the 'favored' Caribbean storm goes North of the Caribbean? IF they are close enough for binary interaction, yes, but that would require both of them developing rather quickly. As modeled, 92L should race ahead of 93L by Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 IF they are close enough for binary interaction, yes, but that would require both of them developing rather quickly. As modeled, 92L should race ahead of 93L by Saturday. They're already far enough apart that we don't have to worry about binary interaction. This still has fish written all over it. As the trough moves off the Eastern Seaboard next week, 92L could affect Bermuda as it is transitioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Looking good... coud get a possible cherry out of this in the next TWO update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 An invest mission Saturday is tasked to 92L, but with that looking fishy, if my 94L can get better, maybe they'll be a change of plans. 94L will be closer to the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 92L is looking much better on visible and convectional IR satellite loops this afternoon, with one consolidated area of convection with a distinct mid level rotation evident. While extremely grainy, the most recent microwave image does not show conclusive evidence of any kind of surface circulation yet. It also does not show a particularly large area of deep convection, and ASCAT from this morning just missed the system to the west it appears, but does not show conclusive evidence of anything other than an open wave it this point either: In addition, 92L, per shear analysis, has moved north of the upper level anti-cyclone it was under and is being impacted by about 20 knots of shear along with some (but not severe) SAL: Low level vorticity is also rather weak with this system, which will make it difficult for a surface circulation to spin up extremely fast in the short term. However, the 12z GFS shows the system developing rather rapidly in the short term, and shows a nice anti-cyclonic upper level wind pattern around the invest developing in a couple of days. This should favor gradual development. The GFS is the only model that in its most recent run spunup 92L extremely fast. The 0z CMC eventually develops it into a powerful system, but not for 4-5 days. The 0z Euro did not show much if any development. Given the current lack of low level circulation and some shear/dry air, I do not think this will develop extremely fast. However, a much more consolidated area of convection along with what appears to be a nice midlevel vortex developing in combination with gradually decreasing shear/dry air over the weekend should make future development likely, although the reliable global models are not in agreement on when and to what extent this development will occur. Based on the above combination of factors, the NHC may increase probability of tropical cyclone formation to 50% by the 2pm or 8pm update, but I would see no reason to rush this to cherry until a surface circulation has formed or appears to be forming. Although the –NAO has finally gone away (or is in the process of doing so), model ensembles continue to show below normal heights over Alaska and off the western US coast over the next week. This forces a ridge over the central US and continues to favor more transient troughs over the eastern US and off the east coast, meaning timing would have to be perfect for one of these Cape Verde storms to make it to the US coastline. The 0z ECM ensembles show this well, with a trough moving off the east coast in 4-5 days. At this point it is likely that 92L will be some sort of tropical cyclone north of the Greater Antilles and east of the Bahamas, and in a position to be picked up by this trough which will extend fairly far south. This makes it highly probable that 92L will recurve off the US eastcoast, I’d give it about a 98% shot at occurring, especially given its current latitude. This system may come close to Bermuda in about 5-6 days if it evolves as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 92L's circulation is looking great on the last few frames of the visible, if only a bit more convection would pop around the center... perhaps tonight's diurnal max might see something? The dry air certainly doesn't have me super confident on that, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 We may see Franklin... THE DEPRESSION IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IS MOVING TOWARD COOLER WATERS. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 6-12 HOURS. THEREFORE...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE DEPRESSION MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HR...AND THIS COULD EVEN OCCUR EARLIER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS INTENSE THAN THE FORECAST OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. Correct me if i am wrong but that applies to the depression that was 95 L ...not to Invest 92 L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Correct me if i am wrong but that applies to the depression that was 95 L ...not to Invest 92 L You are correct...too many invest out there...post deleted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 The GFS 500 MB streamline at hour 96 shows depicts a trough and asssociated area of low pressure passing off the NE Coast of the US significantly affecting Invest 92L with the model plot showing the disturbnce already north of Bermuda well out on its way out to sea. I disagree with the model output. While the timing of the trough may verify, I dont think that 92 L will be far enough west at hours 48, 72 and 96 repectively to interact with the low pressure system as depicted by the models. Now with that being said, I still like the idea of a storm for the Fishies... a recurve is eminent. It is just the timing that I question. I think a recurve is more likely after hour 120 with 92L getting much closer to the EC than what the model output is predicting. My analysis/ reasoning for this is that if you look at the overall pattern in the tropical atlantic this season thus far, the westward movement of tropical disturbances has been much slower than predicted model plots. Just look at Emily meandering around southeast of hispanola while model output depicted it well on its way to north. As long as 92L remains weak, look for it to be "in play" well in to next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Meh... Disagree with this guidance ... see my post above. The pattern is too slow to see that kind of westward motion of 92L in the next 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Latest IR shows a decently organized 92L, maybe future Harvey. Could have 3 named storms declared in less than a week (4 if you're smoking the NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 92L is getting a little close to TD7 eh? It will be interesting to see the interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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