Riptide Posted August 8, 2011 Author Share Posted August 8, 2011 Thread lock? Why? Whenever NHC officially deactivates this...it looks like they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 8, 2011 Author Share Posted August 8, 2011 Everyone gets burned by their first girlfriend. You will be okay. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Whenever NHC officially deactivates this...it looks like they will. There is an FTP page for that, you know. ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ Good practice for the upcoming 93L, no doubt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Kind of a slow start to the season, but the climo peak is still over one month away.....it's tough, but folks should not lose sight of that. Hang with 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 not every swirl erupts into a palmtree bender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 While you guys are focusing on whether or not 92L has been deactivated, I think it is more important to look at the overall picture using satellite imagery. Note that in the visible loop below that this tropical wave has a fairly large envelope with a broad circulation stretching from 5N all the way up to 15N. This large circulation has will have two major impacts on the future identity of 92L. First, this has allowed the dry air located north of the system to at least somewhat affect the convective activity of the system. This is why we see reduced convection today as dry air has at least had some impact on the center. Second, the large storm circulation will mean that is has a much better shot at persistence in the long term. This large circulation allows the system to persist in an environment of higher Rossby Radius of Deformation (which indicates the radius at which rotation becomes more buoyancy for maintenance of a vortex). In essence, we should see this system persist for quite some time even under less than favorable conditions currently (dry air and SAL) In addition, look at the most recent TPW animation over the East Atlantic. While there is an expansive areas of dry air in this area, note the surge in higher TPW that just emerged off the coastline of Africa. While a punch of dry air has affected this system over the last 24 hours, it hasn't enveloped the circulation completely. Thus as long as the upper level winds remain favorable, we should continue to see convective bursts as inflow from the south continues to supply the circulation with a fetch of warm moist air from the ITCZ. The bottom line is don't give up on 92L yet... it still has a few things going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Kind of a slow start to the season, but the climo peak is still over one month away.....it's tough, but folks should not lose sight of that. Hang with 'em. Lol! A slow start with 5 named storms already. Colin dissapated today in 2010. We are actually well ahead for it being only early august. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Lol! A slow start with 5 named storms already. Colin dissapated today in 2010. We are actually well ahead for it being only early august. Seriously, the 5 storms we've already seen have sucked. Last year we had a storm like Alex already, which was a strong cat2 and could see power in the future on the models.Not saying we won't, but lets cross our fingers for better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Seriously, the 5 storms we've already seen have sucked. Last year we had a storm like Alex already, which was a strong cat2 and could see power in the future on the models. I remember the models being dead last year at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Seriously, the 5 storms we've already seen have sucked. Last year we had a storm like Alex already, which was a strong cat2 and could see power in the future on the models.Not saying we won't, but lets cross our fingers for better. From what I remember, the models were dead last year until around Aug 15-20. (Danielle developed on the 21st.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Euro develops 92l near the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 9, 2011 Author Share Posted August 9, 2011 Very encouraging changes on the euro, I wonder what 12z will bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 http://oiswww.eumets...FRICA/index.htm New Invest Number??? or another one day wonder???? 1800 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 9, 2011 Author Share Posted August 9, 2011 I can see why you're interested in this one, Doorman. The organization is excellent and it appears there are two separate systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 fishies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Lemon http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Lemon http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp your graphics really bring nothing to the table. Where are your discussions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 your graphics really bring nothing to the table. Where are your discussions? Meh. It's usually easy to tell what DM's thoughts are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 your graphics really bring nothing to the table. Where are your discussions? What is there to discuss? "What a low level circulation on that storm right now!" This is a boring season right now. Everyone has said the same thing over and over again for the past 4 days. Your post brought nothing to the table IMO. Whats the harm in posting what the NHC thinks the percentage is on those clusters? For a person that doesn't have time to search around the web for a while, I think that is a good post. This is almost as bad as when someone posted a satellite image of Emily (In the Emily thread), and another poster responded "where is your analysis" lol What are we supposed to say when were monitoring a cluster of thunderstorms 100 miles from Africa? K*** says "fishies" in a post, but you pick on the guy that actually posted something that had to do with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 your graphics really bring nothing to the table. Where are your discussions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 I wish people would stop the bickering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 http://www.americanw...post__p__870717 Actually the disturbance SE of the Cape Verde Islands has a much better low level rotation. That may well be future 93L if it is not absorbed into a slower moving 92L. There are areas of multiple vortisity along the ITCZ/monsoonal trough. We will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 I wish people would stop the bickering. Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Actually the disturbance SE of the Cape Verde Islands has a much better low level rotation. That may well be future 93L if it is not absorbed into a slower moving 92L. There are areas of multiple vortisity along the ITCZ/monsoonal trough. We will see... ty Srain not much space to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Actually the disturbance SE of the Cape Verde Islands has a much better low level rotation. That may well be future 93L if it is not absorbed into a slower moving 92L. There are areas of multiple vortisity along the ITCZ/monsoonal trough. We will see... Thanks for making sense of that mess out there; can't wait to see what it looks like tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 I wish people would stop the bickering. Ya. Its like people are applying for mod positions (Srain I'm looking at you). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cypress Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 http://oiswww.eumets...FRICA/index.htm New Invest Number??? or another one day wonder???? 1800 Z good call, like the sat shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 good call, like the sat shot Hiya Tex http://oiswww.eumets...FRICA/index.htm lets see who makes the call on a 93L thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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