Invest 92L

[Riptide]

I think this thread is "overdue". Overdue to get back on track talking about Invest 92L.

I know, right. It needs to start bursting convection again first.

[Mencken_Fan]

There's no such thing as "overdue".

TROLL

[gil888]

In a similar fashion, the history of dice rolls have no impact on future dice rolls. So if you roll 28 9's in a row, you have no greater chance of rolling a 9 on the next roll. Even if south FL were to not see even tropical storm force winds in a centuries time, there is no greater chance the next season for a storm to strike there. Overdue is not something that works when talking about weather.

Overdue is a flawed concept, but your analogy only works if you think the all hurricane tracks have equally likely chance of occurring. Clearly that's not the case, as the Big Bend of Florida has a much lower risk of a hurricane than south Florida. Hurricanes are not dice and they have favored paths.

[Riptide]

TROLL

I disagree, his arguments regarding probability are completely sound. Seasonal patterns are cyclical while weather events of any given nature are periodic and that includes hurricanes, snowstorms, etc.

[k***]

<font size="3">TROLL</font>

The king of flawed overdue arguments has arrived.

[Riptide]

If I recall, there was a period in the late 1800's with 5+ east coast landfalls within a period of 20 years? There are dead and active periods for sure in regards to East Coast Hurricanes

[Juliancolton]

If I recall, there was a period in the late 1800's with 5+ east coast landfalls within a period of 20 years? There are dead and active periods for sure in regards to East Coast Hurricanes

1893 had at least three as I recall.

[Ed Lizard]

TROLL

So you're arguing 'overdue' is an appropriate word, and this being 20 years since Bob, we will have an SNE landfall?

[Mencken_Fan]

Those tracks are not the best source of historical data-- they're don't reflect the latest reanalysis research.

Based on the most-recent research done by the most-reputable experts on Atlantic 'canes:

Carol was a Cat 3 in NY & RI (and a Cat 2 in CT & MA).

Edna was a Cat 3 in MA (and a Cat 1 in NY & RI).

Hazel was a Cat 4 in NC (and a Cat 3 in SC).

A discussion of historical hurricanes in the Wilmington newspaper reveals many great hurricanes have been written about here since 1791 but none matched the ferocity of Hazel.

While multiple seaside communities suffered 90% or greater destruction, there are coastal "wind reports" ranging from 125-150mph.

Wilmington airport reported only 98mph but our airport is situated on a filled-in swamp just inland of the city ; moreover, there are rolling hills on the immediate seaside edge of the airport (which provide a good overlook for air shows.) The city of Wilmington itself resides on well-elevated area between the Cape Fear River and the Atlantic. The land here slopes gently downwards as one heads towards the ocean.There is probably no worse location for recording wind speeds from coastal storms than our well-protected airport.

On another note, Hazel's timing was most unfortunate - striking on the day of the highest lunar tide of the year. Surges ranged from 12 to 18 feet.

The record shows how truly rare Cat 4s are at this latitude, and it may or may not be a long time until the next one.

[gkrangers]

We're overdue for some weenie tags.

[HurricaneJosh]

A discussion of historical hurricanes in the Wilmington newspaper reveals many great hurricanes have been written about here since 1791 but none matched the ferocity of Hazel.

While multiple seaside communities suffered 90% or greater destruction, there are coastal "wind reports" ranging from 125-150mph.

Wilmington airport reported only 98mph but our airport is situated on a filled-in swamp just inland of the city ; moreover, there are rolling hills on the immediate seaside edge of the airport (which provide a good overlook for air shows.) The city of Wilmington itself resides on well-elevated area between the Cape Fear River and the Atlantic. The land here slopes gently downwards as one heads towards the ocean.There is probably no worse location for recording wind speeds from coastal storms than our well-protected airport.

On another note, Hazel's timing was most unfortunate - striking on the day of the highest lunar tide of the year. Surges ranged from 12 to 18 feet.

The record shows how truly rare Cat 4s are at this latitude, and it may or may not be a long time until the next one.

Take all wind readings from the 1940s, '50s, and early '60s with a grain of salt. Seriously, every d*mn 'cane produced reports of 150-mph winds, and there's never any info Re: the station, the instrument, the height, and so on. It was ridiculous, and it makes doing research on cyclones from this time period frustrating-- you just don't know which readings to take seriously.

That having been said, I agree with the rest of your post. Modern researchers have affirmed Hazel's Cat-4 status in NC, although they put it at the low-end of the range (115 kt). Assuming that finding holds with the NHC, that makes Hazel the only known Cat 4 to hit NC or anywhere to the N. Like you suggest, Cat-4 landfalls are exceedingly rare anywhere above 30N.

[Amped]

We're overdue for some weenie tags.

And another big bang And another World War.

Hurricanes along the east coast North of Florida tend to hit after August. Bob and the Great Colonial Hurricane are rare counter examples.

It's hard for Amplified patterns to develop until Canada starts cooling off. Most big ridges start off as Canadian highs that move offshore and trigger a strong return flow.

[rainstorm]

JB tweeted this looks like 1954 so far. we all know what happened then.

[Ginx snewx]

Take all wind readings from the 1940s, '50s, and early '60s with a grain of salt. Seriously, every d*mn 'cane produced reports of 150-mph winds, and there's never any info Re: the station, the instrument, the height, and so on. It was ridiculous, and it makes doing research on cyclones from this time period frustrating-- you just don't know which readings to take seriously.

That having been said, I agree with the rest of your post. Modern researchers have affirmed Hazel's Cat-4 status in NC, although they put it at the low-end of the range (115 kt). Assuming that finding holds with the NHC, that makes Hazel the only known Cat 4 to hit NC or anywhere to the N. Like you suggest, Cat-4 landfalls are exceedingly rare anywhere above 30N.

Josh! I had a great talk with a guy who lived through Hurricane Hortense in Guanica PR in 1996. His story was so colorful I felt like I was there, lost his home. I had forgotten how powerful that was in PR.

[#NoPoles]

for the love...i bet we could get TC development over MA right now this dewpoint is just ridiculous!!!

[GaWx]

Hurricanes along the east coast North of Florida tend to hit after August. Bob and the Great Colonial Hurricane are rare counter examples.

In GA and lower SC, Aug and Sep. have had about the same level of activity over the last 200 years overall. Sep. dominated in the early to mid 1800's followed by Aug. in the late 1800's through 1952 followed by Sep. from 1959 through Hugo and Gaston. A few sig. Oct. storms were in the 1890's as well as in 1947. Are we soon going to be going back to domination by Aug. for these areas or is Sep. going to continue to dominate for a while longer?

[Ed Lizard]

JB tweeted this looks like 1954 so far. we all know what happened then.

There They're going to 5 post you again. Especially another JB 1954 tweet.

[Mencken_Fan]

There is no such thing as "overdue." (in a meteorological sense, to be PC about it)

There is only "statistically more/less favorable" based on what little we know of the climatology. While the current long-term pattern may be more favorable for an EC landfall, the chance of occurrence remains independent on a case-by-case basis. To rephrase, just because we've had no EC landfalls in X years does not make it any more or less likely that we'll have one any given time in the future.

You're getting there. While scientifically there is no such thing as being "overdue" for a hurricane, everyone knows the application is a normal part of our vernacular. The only question then is - how anal do we want to be about it?

Common sense comes into play; that is, no one in their right mind would bet a body part that a hurricane will arrive in any given year but if a frequently hit location has been dry for a while, a small cash wager would not be particularly outrageous.

That a small few here berate others to the point of beating a dead horse when we know they're speaking our common vernacular when using the term "overdue" and not taking a meteorological exam is both unnecessary and irritating. Yes this is a science board but it's also a social board; who's membership includes everything from the casual and curious to the sage experts to the sociopaths who dot the landscape.

By the way - guess what the locals in N.C. are saying about this summer - yep, you guessed it - "we're overdue for a hurricane" LOL.

Cheers...from an ex-Germantowner ('95-'02)

[Mencken_Fan]

So you're arguing 'overdue' is an appropriate word, and this being 20 years since Bob, we will have an SNE landfall?

No...I said "troll" because instead of passing over posts most of us would, Kush never fails to criticize others or post something he knows will start an argumentative discussion.

When someone states they're "overdue" for a hurricane they're simply using our common vernacular. That it's technically incorrect is obvious to effectively everyone. No one with a shred of common sense would place a serious wager on such a proposition; and even an idiot who keeps saying the same thing year after year will figure out that it's not necessarily so.

There is much to discuss in life (here and elsewhere); this "overdue" business speaks more about posters themselves than it does anything else. I find it a psychological curiosity - hence my comments - and little more.

[Mencken_Fan]

Take all wind readings from the 1940s, '50s, and early '60s with a grain of salt. Seriously, every d*mn 'cane produced reports of 150-mph winds, and there's never any info Re: the station, the instrument, the height, and so on. It was ridiculous, and it makes doing research on cyclones from this time period frustrating-- you just don't know which readings to take seriously.

That having been said, I agree with the rest of your post. Modern researchers have affirmed Hazel's Cat-4 status in NC, although they put it at the low-end of the range (115 kt). Assuming that finding holds with the NHC, that makes Hazel the only known Cat 4 to hit NC or anywhere to the N. Like you suggest, Cat-4 landfalls are exceedingly rare anywhere above 30N.

Yes, accuracy fades with time, whether it be weather, human history or whatever. We just have to do our best and make due with what we have. And one can only imagine how many instruments have failed under the onslaught of a major hurricane!

Fortunately though, life for most of us isn't about small details; it's the big picture that counts.

Have a great season...and send me a Cat 1 while you're at it.

[Thunder Road]

You're getting there. While scientifically there is no such thing as being "overdue" for a hurricane, everyone knows the application is a normal part of our vernacular. The only question then is - how anal do we want to be about it?

Common sense comes into play; that is, no one in their right mind would bet a body part that a hurricane will arrive in any given year but if a frequently hit location has been dry for a while, a small cash wager would not be particularly outrageous.

That a small few here berate others to the point of beating a dead horse when we know they're speaking our common vernacular when using the term "overdue" and not taking a meteorological exam is both unnecessary and irritating. Yes this is a science board but it's also a social board; who's membership includes everything from the casual and curious to the sage experts to the sociopaths who dot the landscape.

By the way - guess what the locals in N.C. are saying about this summer - yep, you guessed it - "we're overdue for a hurricane" LOL.

Cheers...from an ex-Germantowner ('95-'02)

So what you're saying is, since people have done it wrong for so long...it has become right? The word Overdue is not part of the vernacular on this board, and with a little luck, people will someday become smart enough to eradicate it from their speaking (at least in this sense, anyway)

Thanks for playing though, we have some lovely parting gifts for you!

[Ellinwood]

You're getting there. While scientifically there is no such thing as being "overdue" for a hurricane, everyone knows the application is a normal part of our vernacular. The only question then is - how anal do we want to be about it?

Common sense comes into play; that is, no one in their right mind would bet a body part that a hurricane will arrive in any given year but if a frequently hit location has been dry for a while, a small cash wager would not be particularly outrageous.

That a small few here berate others to the point of beating a dead horse when we know they're speaking our common vernacular when using the term "overdue" and not taking a meteorological exam is both unnecessary and irritating. Yes this is a science board but it's also a social board; who's membership includes everything from the casual and curious to the sage experts to the sociopaths who dot the landscape.

By the way - guess what the locals in N.C. are saying about this summer - yep, you guessed it - "we're overdue for a hurricane" LOL.

Cheers...from an ex-Germantowner ('95-'02)

I call BS

Overdue implies that we're more likely to get something because it hasn't happened in X number of years. The original post mentioned how we are, paraphrased, overdue for an EC landfall, and it's in that context that we are discussing why it should not be used. I would never bet on one year over another unless I knew the long-term pattern that would help/hinder the chance for an EC landfall.

Forgive us for trying to inform someone of their misuse of probability with respect to hurricane landfalls. Yes, there are plenty of "casual" people on the board, but those who are knowledgeable in the subject matter should correct mistakes when mistakes are made, otherwise no one would learn and this board would become a weenietown of meteorologically-uneducated, misinformed yahoos.

[am19psu]

Looks like I missed out on a great discussion while I was gone...

Let's get this back on track for 92L. If you want to discuss the science of return periods, start a new thread.

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011080800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

gfs doesnt show much as far as 92L is concerned. weak ridging and another front headed off the coast. still looks like recurve if anything even develops.

[Riptide]

We needed a calamity loop...

[Ed Lizard]

If the ftp site hasn't updated in almost a day, is this a passive/aggressive way of deactivating 92L?

[Ed Lizard]

If the ftp site hasn't updated in almost a day, is this a passive/aggressive way of deactivating 92L?

OK then, next!

[Riptide]

That's ridiculous, why would they deactivate this. It was a bad idea to make this an invest without lemonizing it first.

Mods, please lock this thread.

[Ed Lizard]

That's ridiculous, why would they deactivate this. It was a bad idea to make this an invest without lemonizing it first.

Mods, please lock this thread.

Thread lock? Why?

[k***]

That's ridiculous, why would they deactivate this. It was a bad idea to make this an invest without lemonizing it first.

Mods, please lock this thread.

Everyone gets burned by their first girlfriend. You will be okay.