Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 ^ why is the hebert box demarcated on that spaghetti plot? I don't know. South Florida Water Management District. Can't figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Lost all of its convection during the daylight hours. Edit: Also a low level cloud swirl NW of the Canary Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Lost all of its convection during the daylight hours. Edit: Also a low level cloud swirl NW of the Canary Islands. Great loop. 95% of the waves that come off Africa lose steam when they hit the water. It's still has a fair amount of spin,though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 When was the last time they fired up an invest w/o a lemon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Lack of lemonization, not really complaining, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Lack of lemonization, not really complaining, actually. What do you mean by Lemonization? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 What do you mean by Lemonization? When a tropical wave has a low chance of developing it gets lemonized with a yellow circle.. Oranginized (lol) would be a medium chance Cherryized (lol) would be a high chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 What do you mean by Lemonization? The NHC 48-hour formation potential map depicts areas of interest with three levels of concern of TCgenesis: low (yellow), medium (orange), and high (red). People like to call low-risk areas "lemons" because lemons are yellow, medium "oranges/mandarins", and high "cherry". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 http://www.atmos.was...latest.cgi?ir-e that picture tells alot about the future of 92L. huge low still anchored in the nw atlantic(bad), large trough south of the low(bad). another front moving off the coast(bad). what this doesnt show is all the dry air in the atlantic. another point of interest is emily's fate. similar to last season conditions close to the US are horrid for development. i compare that to alex of 2004 which became a strong cane as it developed in close to NC. all signs right now point to 92L recurving should it develop. lets look and see if that nw atlantic low can be replaced with a high. *once again checking the 384 gfs it shows a complete opposite pattern with high pressure in the nw atlantic. we all know its too far out to hang a hat on, but its a good sign. I agree with your thinking on 92L, but I'd say that if a positive nao develops then chances go way up for a landfall. Right now the ecmwf has more ridging from 72-168 hours then the gfs within the western Atlantic west of 60, so I'd expect looking at things at face value that this system shall move west-northwestward through the next 72 hours, but with slow development as the trough at 30-40 west may provide shear over it throughout the next 36 hours with strong easterly shear at the low levels. I wouldn't expect much development for the next 36-48 hours until it gets to around 40-45 west...Afterwards the gfs and ecmwf build more ridging to the north of this system and steer it west-northwestward to at least 60-65 west...216-240 hour time frame appears to be a toss up as models show some troughing within the area, but if we can get a positive nao that may change. Both Ike, Isabel got pretty far north before a ridge built and pushed them westward. (15-18 north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I agree with your thinking on 92L, shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 shocking Why shocking? There has been a trough off the east coast all this season and models right now show that remaining so as this system gets into the central and western Atlantic. Seriously, I'm agreeing with rainstorm as the odds as they stand right now is for it to recurve, but I'm also saying that if a positive nao can develop then more ridging may do a Isabel, ect like set up. What doesn't make any sense to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Why shocking? There has been a trough off the east coast all this season and models right now show that remaining so as this system gets into the central and western Atlantic. Seriously, I'm agreeing as the odds as they stand right now is for it to recurve, but I'm also saying that if a positive nao can develop then more ridging may do a Isabel, ect like set up. you're up rainstorm's butt 24/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 The NHC 48-hour formation potential map depicts areas of interest with three levels of concern of TCgenesis: low (yellow), medium (orange), and high (red). People like to call low-risk areas "lemons" because lemons are yellow, medium "oranges/mandarins", and high "cherry". Thanks... I noticed that NHC doesn't have a lemon yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 you're up rainstorm's butt 24/7 What do you seriously disagree with? I've went against rainstorm a lot of times. I think the east coast could get hit this season and rainstorm doesn't. I've been rainstorms friend for over a decade and I'd like you to tell me what do you disagree with? Seriously what do you disagree with in a pattern sense of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 . I think the east coast could get hit this season and rainstorm doesn't. Joseph D'Aleo also seems to agree... he points to the fact that when the AMO is positive and the PDO is negative, you generally get East Coast storms. The warm Atlantic and cold Pacific usually mean an east coast landfall. The analogs and model forecasts suggests the trough which has been off the east coast moves inland far enough to threaten trouble for the east coast. These troughs amplify than lift out leaving a weakness a storm in the waters off the east coast can penetrate. The Carolinas and the coast further north including New Jersey and New York are vulnerable. This region is is overdue. This summer was a lot like the 1954 and 1955 summers. Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Joseph D'Aleo also seems to agree... he points to the fact that when the AMO is positive and the PDO is negative, you generally get East Coast storms. Larry Cosgrove says the same thing on Facebook. He thinks the Carolinas north are ripe for a landfall this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Larry Cosgrove says the same thing on Facebook. He thinks the Carolinas north are ripe for a landfall this year. Yep... the years that D'Aleo mentioned as analogues as part of the pattern that we are currently experiencing had a lot of East Coast landfalls. Hurricane Carol, which made landfall in E. LI as a Category 2 Hurricane, Hurricane Edna passed just to the east of North Carolina before making landfall in New England as a Category 1 Hurricane, Hurricane Hazel hit the Carolina coastline, as a Category 3 Hurricane, Hurricane Connie in 1955, Hurricane Diane in 1955, The East Coast is due for a major storm, and this year might just give that overdue storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 There's no such thing as "overdue". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 There's no such thing as "overdue". That's interesting, the dictionaries have a word that you claim does not exist... b : delayed beyond an appointed time <an overdue train> <overdue library books> Not having a major storm impacting the entire East Coast for at least 50 years is considered to be "overdue" in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Yep... the years that D'Aleo mentioned as analogues as part of the pattern that we are currently experiencing had a lot of East Coast landfalls. Hurricane Carol, which made landfall in E. LI as a Category 2 Hurricane, Hurricane Edna passed just to the east of North Carolina before making landfall in New England as a Category 1 Hurricane, Hurricane Hazel hit the Carolina coastline, as a Category 3 Hurricane, Hurricane Connie in 1955, Hurricane Diane in 1955, The East Coast is due for a major storm, and this year might just give that overdue storm. Those tracks are not the best source of historical data-- they're don't reflect the latest reanalysis research. Based on the most-recent research done by the most-reputable experts on Atlantic 'canes: Carol was a Cat 3 in NY & RI (and a Cat 2 in CT & MA). Edna was a Cat 3 in MA (and a Cat 1 in NY & RI). Hazel was a Cat 4 in NC (and a Cat 3 in SC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 That's interesting, the dictionaries have a word that you claim does not exist... Not having a major storm impacting the entire East Coast for at least 50 years is considered to be "overdue" in my book. I meant in a meteorological sense. We go over this ad infinitum every season. There is no such thing as overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I meant in a meteorological sense. We go over this ad infinitum every season. There is no such thing as overdue. Okay, that's fine if you think that. I will rephrase my statement for you: "this year will bring an east coast storm that hasn't happened for around 50 years." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 That's interesting, the dictionaries have a word that you claim does not exist... Not having a major storm impacting the entire East Coast for at least 50 years is considered to be "overdue" in my book. In tropical meteorology, there is no such thing as "overdue". It is a fictitious and irrelevant concept when discussing return periods for hurricanes in specific locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Okay, that's fine if you think that. I will rephrase my statement for you: "this year will bring an east coast storm that hasn't happened for around 50 years." That's an even more ridiculous assertion. Go back a couple days to when the D'Aleo article was being discussed around here...no need to rehash how loltastic his claims are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 In tropical meteorology, there is no such thing as "overdue". It is a fictitious and irrelevant concept when discussing return periods for hurricanes in specific locations. That really applies to any event in meteorology. Anytime you hear anything about something being a once is so many years event, that's just a way of conveying the year-to-year probability of it occurring, not that it will actually happen once every so many years. For instance, if some says that the 4/27 outbreak in AL was a once in 10,000 year outbreak (not sure if that's the return rate but it's probably not terribly far off) for the state, then the year-to-year probability of it occurring is 0.01%, but the probability of it happening again next year will be the exact same as the probability of it happening 10,000 years from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 That's interesting, the dictionaries have a word that you claim does not exist... Not having a major storm impacting the entire East Coast for at least 50 years is considered to be "overdue" in my book. Mother nature doesn't owe anyone crap Yes if it's been snowing for 48hrs hrs on the east coast your due for the snow to end. But that has to due with the evolution cycle of an extratropical cyclone. They weaken or move after 48 hrs. Hence the longer it snows the more likely it is the snow will end. Your due for some cold weather in January and warm weather in July, There's a physical reason for that as well. But you're never overdue for a Hurricane or a HECS, they are random, not periodic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Okay, that's fine if you think that. I will rephrase my statement for you: "this year will bring an east coast storm that hasn't happened for around 50 years." There is no such thing as "overdue." (in a meteorological sense, to be PC about it) There is only "statistically more/less favorable" based on what little we know of the climatology. While the current long-term pattern may be more favorable for an EC landfall, the chance of occurrence remains independent on a case-by-case basis. To rephrase, just because we've had no EC landfalls in X years does not make it any more or less likely that we'll have one any given time in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 You can't use the word "overdue." It implies you are owed something. New York isn't owed a hurricane. Just like you are not owed a "heads" after you flip a "tails" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I think this thread is "overdue". Overdue to get back on track talking about Invest 92L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dolebot_broward_nw Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 In tropical meteorology, there is no such thing as "overdue". It is a fictitious and irrelevant concept when discussing return periods for hurricanes in specific locations. In a similar fashion, the history of dice rolls have no impact on future dice rolls. So if you roll 28 9's in a row, you have no greater chance of rolling a 9 on the next roll. Even if south FL were to not see even tropical storm force winds in a centuries time, there is no greater chance the next season for a storm to strike there. Overdue is not something that works when talking about weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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