Invest 92L

[Riptide]

This looks like the first legit Cape Verde TC of the year. Supposedly, it has a defined LLC and persistent convection.

[Scorpion]

Won't develop til after 50W so not til after Thursday. Long time to wait

[Riptide]

Won't develop til after 50W so not til after Thursday. Long time to wait

Probably, there is alot of dry air in the way. Mabye it will break the pattern and develop early.

[GaWx]

Will this ever have a shot at making it to the east coast should it survive? The current solid -NAO pattern would need to change drastically to give it a decent shot. Past US major H hits from MDR storms (those that become TD's before 50W) suggest that a sig. rise from a -NAO at genesis to either a slightly -NAO or a +NAO within 7-10 days or so increase the chance. There are some model hints of this for around 8/20, but would that be in time or would that be a little too late?Regardless, MDR storms (those that become TD's by 50W) have only about a 20% chance of reaching the states due to most recurving and some either dissipating or going too far south. So, obviously a lot has to go "right" (or "wrong depending on one's desires) for them to reach the states. So, Its best shot may be if it doesn't become a TD by 50W and instead becomes one just E of the L.A.'s.

[HurricaneJosh]

We've had lots of discussions Re: Cape Verde hurricanes in the past...

The bottom line is that, regardless of year, pattern, or any other factors, the chance of any single Cape Verde system making it to the USA is always very small. It is never something to bet on. I think there's a perception that they make it to the USA more often than they really do because some of the East Coast's most significant 'canes were CV cyclones, and those ones stick in our memories.

Sorry to be such a buzzkill.

[MJW155]

We've had lots of discussions Re: Cape Verde hurricanes in the past...

The bottom line is that, regardless of year, pattern, or any other factors, the chance of any single Cape Verde system making it to the USA is always very small. It is never something to bet on. I think there's a perception that they make it to the USA more often than they really do because some of the East Coast's most significant 'canes were CV cyclones, and those ones stick in our memories.

Sorry to be such a buzzkill.

Yea until I moved to Florida I always assumed CV hurricanes hit the US frequently.

Anyone know the chances of 1 hitting the US? 1 in 100? Higher? Lower?

[k***]

It's better than one in a hundred.

[Ed Lizard]

Wishing I could see the early guidance...

[Riptide]

It's better than one in a hundred.

What's brewing Kush?

[Riptide]

This is what the 12z GFS does with it.

[stormtracker]

We've had lots of discussions Re: Cape Verde hurricanes in the past...

The bottom line is that, regardless of year, pattern, or any other factors, the chance of any single Cape Verde system making it to the USA is always very small. It is never something to bet on. I think there's a perception that they make it to the USA more often than they really do because some of the East Coast's most significant 'canes were CV cyclones, and those ones stick in our memories.

Sorry to be such a buzzkill.

This would have been a great topic to ask Bill Read about. I should have!

[GaWx]

Yea until I moved to Florida I always assumed CV hurricanes hit the US frequently.

Anyone know the chances of 1 hitting the US? 1 in 100? Higher? Lower?

20% for a TC that forms (i.e. TD+) east of 50W to make it to the states.

[GaWx]

We've had lots of discussions Re: Cape Verde hurricanes in the past...

The bottom line is that, regardless of year, pattern, or any other factors, the chance of any single Cape Verde system making it to the USA is always very small. It is never something to bet on. I think there's a perception that they make it to the USA more often than they really do because some of the East Coast's most significant 'canes were CV cyclones, and those ones stick in our memories.

Sorry to be such a buzzkill.

This. However, the discussion about the NAO state is relevant as the chances are better with a +NAO if and when it gets to the western part of the basin vs. if a -NAO persists.

[rainstorm]

http://www.atmos.was...latest.cgi?ir-e

that picture tells alot about the future of 92L. huge low still anchored in the nw atlantic(bad), large trough south of the low(bad). another front moving off the coast(bad). what this doesnt show is all the dry air in the atlantic. another point of interest is emily's fate. similar to last season conditions close to the US are horrid for development. i compare that to alex of 2004 which became a strong cane as it developed in close to NC.

all signs right now point to 92L recurving should it develop. lets look and see if that nw atlantic low can be replaced with a high.

*once again checking the 384 gfs it shows a complete opposite pattern with high pressure in the nw atlantic. we all know its too far out to hang a hat on, but its a good sign.

[PDIII]

I am new to this... What type of overall pattern are we looking for so a TC either strikes the EC or recurves somewhere between the EC and Bermuda? It seems that storms either take the atlantic track and recurve or keep going west in to the gulf of mexico...Is there something to look for in the teleconnection patterns that causes a storm to make the turn north? Does it have something to do with where it initiates or its intensity? Any help would be great.

[Ed Lizard]

GFS recurves it, but also has a cyclone by 30ºW.

Still think, however, that the time for a US landfall is more likely by 'Gert' than 'Franklin'.

[rainstorm]

I am new to this... What type of overall pattern are we looking for so a TC either strikes the EC or recurves somewhere between the EC and Bermuda? It seems that storms either take the atlantic track and recurve or keep going west in to the gulf of mexico...Is there something to look for in the teleconnection patterns that causes a storm to make the turn north? Does it have something to do with where it initiates or its intensity? Any help would be great.

if someone can post the 384 12z gfs here you will see perfection in the pattern for EC hits.

[Amped]

if someone can post the 384 12z gfs here you will see perfection in the pattern for EC hits.

I think GFS 384 still has the troff too far NE

Sept 2003 had a great pattern most of the month

Another faily decent pattern in 2006 too bad ernesto was week

http://www.meteo.psu...2006/us0901.php

Hurricane Fran

http://www.meteo.psu...1996/us0905.php

Floyd bent right

http://www.meteo.psu...1999/us0915.php

Gloria

http://www.meteo.psu...1985/us0927.php

Hugo

http://www.meteo.psu...1989/us0921.php

Positive height anomolies in Eastern New England every time. You can see that with the naked eye.

Edit: Except Ernesto.

[icebreaker5221]

Will this ever have a shot at making it to the east coast should it survive? The current solid -NAO pattern would need to change drastically to give it a decent shot. Past US major H hits from MDR storms (those that become TD's before 50W) suggest that a sig. rise from a -NAO at genesis to either a slightly -NAO or a +NAO within 7-10 days or so increase the chance. There are some model hints of this for around 8/20, but would that be in time or would that be a little too late?Regardless, MDR storms (those that become TD's by 50W) have only about a 20% chance of reaching the states due to most recurving and some either dissipating or going too far south. So, obviously a lot has to go "right" (or "wrong depending on one's desires) for them to reach the states. So, Its best shot may be if it doesn't become a TD by 50W and instead becomes one just E of the L.A.'s.

Last night's deterministic 00Z ECMWF was the first run in a very long time to bring the NAO to neutral, even slightly positive by hr 216/240. However, it may have just been a fluke, as the vast majority of the ensemble members, as well as the mean, were still slightly negative.

Waiting on the 12Z.

[Marion_NC_WX]

if someone can post the 384 12z gfs here you will see perfection in the pattern for EC hits.

I know analyzing these long range maps are rediculous but to me, I think the pattern not only supports more of an east coast threat but also a possible Caribbean threat that goes due north into the Northern Gulf instead of west towards Mexico/South Texas...

Day 14...

Day 15th...

Day 16...

[rainstorm]

I think GFS 384 still has the troff too far NE

Sept 2003 had a great pattern most of the month

Another faily decent pattern in 2006 too bad ernesto was week

http://www.meteo.psu...2006/us0901.php

Hurricane Fran

http://www.meteo.psu...1996/us0905.php

Floyd bent right

http://www.meteo.psu...1999/us0915.php

Gloria

http://www.meteo.psu...1985/us0927.php

Hugo

http://www.meteo.psu...1989/us0921.php

Positive height anomolies in Eastern New England every time. You can see that with the naked eye.

Edit: Except Ernesto.

cant argue with that. positive height anomilies have been absent from new england for a long time.

[Riptide]

92L Model Plots

[HurricaneJosh]

Fish.

[Riptide]

Fish.

I hope this hurricane season isn't fish-city.

[HurricaneJosh]

I hope this hurricane season isn't fish-city.

I don't think it will be. But specifically with Cape Verde cyclones, that is statistically always the better bet-- any year.

As someone who obviously craves landfalls, I really don't hang my hopes on CV stuff-- it's always a heartbreaker. Yeah, once or twice a decade, you get a Hugo, but all the other times... ugh.

[Ed Lizard]

92L Model Plots

Finally. I thought 92L would the invest w/o a lemon or model suites.

[k***]

Finally. I thought 92L would the invest w/o a lemon or model suites.

your life is now complete now that you got the BAMs and the CLP5

[k***]

^

why is the hebert box demarcated on that spaghetti plot?

[LongIslandHurricanes]

Yea until I moved to Florida I always assumed CV hurricanes hit the US frequently.

Anyone know the chances of 1 hitting the US? 1 in 100? Higher? Lower?

Not sure what the odds are of ALL CV storm that make landfall.But a few years ago i did some research on storms that were named(or reach TS) before 40w and made it to 60w without recurving.

30 storm meet this criteria(1900-present).Of the 30, 23 have made landfall which equals 76.6%

as for US landfalls 15 of the storms have hit the US which equals 50%

Storms that were named before 40w and made it to 60w with out recurving(1900-present)

YEAR STROM REACHED TS AT LANDFALL WHERE

1915----- Storm #2---------------29.6w----------------------YES------------Carri,Hati,Jamaica,TX

1928----- Storm #4 ------------- 20.4w----------------------YES------------Carri,PR,Bah,Fla

1938----- Storm #4---------------21.5w----------------------YES------------Long Island

1947----- Storm #4---------------20.1w----------------------YES------------Bahamas,Florida

1948----- Storm #6 --------------19.7w-----------------------NO--------------X

1953----- Carol --------------------37.7w----------------------YES------------Maine

1960----- Donna-------------------26.9w----------------------YES------------Florida,East Coast US

1961----- Esther-------------------36.7w----------------------YES------------Nantucket,Maine

1966----- Faith----------------------28.0w----------------------NO--------------X

1979----- Frederic-----------------36.0w----------------------YES------------Leeward,PR,DR,Cuba,Missi

1981----- Dennis-------------------31.3w----------------------YES-----------Carribean,Jamaica,Cuba,Fla

1985----- Gloria---------------------28.3w---------------------YES------------NC,Long Island

1989----- Hugo----------------------29.2w---------------------YES------------Leeward,PR,SC

1995----- Felix----------------------36.5w----------------------NO--------------X

1995----- Luis-----------------------29.0w----------------------YES------------Nothern Leeward Islands

1996 -----Bertha--------------------39.0w----------------------YES-----------Antigua,NC

1996----- Edouard-----------------31.6w-----------------------NO-------------X

1998----- Goerges-----------------31.3w----------------------YES------------Leeward,PR,DR,Cuba,Miss

1998----- Danielle------------------37.9w----------------------NO--------------X

1999----- Gert-----------------------31.9w----------------------NO--------------X

2003----- Fabian-------------------36.2w----------------------YES------------Bermuda

2004----- Francis------------------39.8w----------------------YES------------Bahamas,Fla

2004----- Ivan-----------------------30.3w----------------------YES------------Grenada,Jamaica,Caymans,Ala

2007----- Dean---------------------38.3w----------------------YES------------Carribean,Yuc,Mexico

2008----- Bertha-------------------24.0w----------------------NO--------------X

2008----- Ike------------------------38.4w----------------------YES------------Cuba,Texas

2009----- Bill------------------------35.2w----------------------YES------------Atlantic Canada

2010----- Danielle-----------------35.1w----------------------NO--------------X

2010----- Earl-----------------------32.2w----------------------YES------------Nova Scotia

2010------Igor---------------------23.5w----------------------YES--------------Bermuda,New Foundland

[LongIslandHurricanes]

And here is one I did on storms that reach TS before 35w

92 storms have done this

29 of the 92 made landfall which is 31.5%

13 of the 92 reach the US Eastcoast 14.1%

YEAR STORM WHEN LANDFALL W AREA OF LANDFALL

1853---STORM #3 ----TS @ 23.2----------NO-----------------74.3-----X

1866---STORM #6---- TS @ 35.0----------YES---------------X----------BAHAMAS

1871---STORM #4-----TS @ 30.7----------YES---------------X----------BAHAMAS,FLORIDA

1872---STORM #2-----TS @ 29.7----------NO-----------------62.3-----X

1872---STORM #4-----TS @ 31.7----------NO-----------------50.0-----X

1873---STORM #2-----TS @ 25.0----------YES---------------68.6-----NEW FOUNDLAND

1874---STORM #3-----TS @ 34.5----------YES---------------67.0-----NEW FOUNDLAND

1881---STORM #3-----TS @ 31.0----------NO-----------------51.3-----X

1889---STORM #7-----TS @ 25.7----------NO-----------------49.4-----X

1891---STORM #2-----TS @ 24.4----------YES---------------64.6-----NOVA SCOTIA

1892---STORM #3-----TS @ 33.0----------NO-----------------54.6-----X

1892---STORM #5-----TS @ 19.5----------NO-----------------50.9-----X

1893---STORM #6-----TS @ 20.2----------YES---------------X----------BAHAMAS,GA

1893---STORM #7-----TS @ 27.2----------NO-----------------41.4-----X

1893---STORM #9-----TS @ 25.0----------YES---------------X----------BAHAMAS,SOUTH CAROLINA

1897---STORM #1-----TS @ 24.0----------NO-----------------50.2-----X

1898---STORM #4-----TS @ 26.9----------YES---------------69.3-----WINWARD/LEEWARD ISLES,NEW FOUNDLAND

1899---STORM #3-----TS @ 31.0----------YES---------------X----------CARRIBEAN ISLES,BAHAMAS,NORTH CAROLINA

1900---STORM #2-----TS @ 28.0----------NO-----------------65.7-----X

1900---STORM #3-----TS @ 18.5----------NO-----------------52.2-----X

1901---STORM #6-----TS @ 22.4----------NO-----------------59.2-----X

1902---STORM #3-----TS @ 30.8----------NO-----------------53.0-----X

1906---STORM #4-----TS @ 21.0----------YES---------------76.6-----NORTHERN LEEWARD

1906---STORM #5-----TS @ 33.0----------YES---------------X----------SOUTH CAROLINA

1913---STORM #3-----TS @ 21.0----------NO-----------------62.7-----X

1915---STORM #2-----TS @ 26.0----------YES---------------X----------LEEWARD,JAMAICA,CUBA,TEXAS

1924---STORM #6-----TS @ 22.0----------NO-----------------28.0-----X

1924---STORM #7-----TS @ 33.2----------NO-----------------55.0-----X

1927---STORM #2-----TS @ 19.3----------NO-----------------58.0-----X

1928---STORM #4-----TS @ 20.4----------YES---------------X----------LEEWARD,PUERTO RICO,BAHAMAS,FLORIDA

1938---STORM #4-----TS @ 21.5----------YES---------------X----------LONG ISLAND

1947---STORM #4-----TS @ 20.1----------YES---------------X----------FLORIDA,LOUISIANA

1948---STORM #6-----TS @ 19.7----------NO-----------------65.8-----X

1949---STORM #7-----TS @ 33.7----------NO-----------------33.7-----X

1950---CHARLIE-------TS @ 24.0----------NO-----------------58.0-----X

1951---FOX---------------TS @ 29.0----------NO-----------------60.0-----X

1955---FLORA----------TS @ 31.1----------NO-----------------55.4-----X

1957---CARRIE---------TS @ 25.9----------NO-----------------64.1-----X

1958---CLEO------------TS @ 21.6----------NO-----------------56.5-----X

1960---DONNA---------TS @ 26.9----------YES---------------X----------LEEWARD,BAHAMS,FLORIDA,EASTCOAST USA

1961---DEBBIE---------TS @ 24.1----------NO-----------------45.9-----X

1962---BECKY----------TS @ 23.3----------NO-----------------28.8-----X

1965---CAROL----------TS @ 30.7----------NO-----------------43.0-----X

1966---FAITH------------TS @ 28.0----------YES---------------73.6-----NORTHERN LEEWARD

1967---GINGER--------TS @ 18.1----------NO-----------------24.3-----X

1968---EDNA------------TS @ 34.9----------NO-----------------55.8-----X

1973---CHRISTINE----TS @ 30.0----------YES---------------X----------LEEWARD

1973---ELLEN-----------TS@ 25.7----------NO-----------------54.0-----X

1979---GLORIA---------TS @33.8----------NO-----------------48.6-----X

1980---EARL-------------TS @26.7----------NO-----------------44.3-----X

1980---FRANCIS-------TS @ 21.8----------NO----------------50.8-----X

1981---DENNIS---------TS @ 31.3----------YES---------------X---------LEEWARD,FLORIDA

1982---BERYL----------TS @ 22.7----------NO-----------------X----------X

1984---FRAN------------TS @ 24.8----------NO-----------------43.0-----X

1985---GLORIA---------TS @ 28.3----------YES---------------X----------LONG ISLAND

1987---BRETT-----------TS @ 26.0----------NO-----------------54.5-----X

1987---DENNIS---------TS @ 25.0----------NO-----------------57.4-----X

1988---HELENE--------TS @ 33.8----------NO-----------------52.0-----X

1989---ERIN--------------TS @ 32.7----------NO-----------------46.3------X

1989---FELIX-------------TS @ 22.9----------NO-----------------48.8-----X

1989---GABRIELLE---TS @ 24.8----------NO-----------------60.0-----X

1989---HUGO------------TS @ 29.2----------YES---------------X----------LEEWARD ISLANDS,PUERTO RICO,SOUTH CAROLINA

1990---CESAR----------TS @ 32.3----------NO-----------------46.8-----X

1990---ISIDORE--------TS @ 32.7----------NO-----------------50.8-----X

1990---JOSEPHINE---TS @ 34.2----------NO-----------------45.5-----X

1994---ERNESTO------TS @ 30.3----------NO-----------------33.2-----X

1995---HUMBERTO---TS @ 34.3----------NO-----------------49.4-----X

1995---LUIS---------------TS @ 29.0----------YES--------------69.8-----LEEWARD

1996---EDOUARDO---TS @ 31.6----------NO-----------------70.6-----X

1996---ISIDORE---------TS @ 28.5----------NO-----------------43.2-----X

1998---GEORGES-----TS @ 31.3----------YES---------------X----------LEEWARD,PURTO RICO,DOMINICAN REPUBLIC,HAITI,CUBA,FLORIDA,LOUISIANA

1998---IVAN--------------TS @ 32.6----------NO-----------------42.3-----X

1998---JEANNE---------TS @ 19.4----------NO-----------------42.0-----X

1999---CINDY------------TS @ 26.6----------NO-----------------58.4-----X

1999---GERT-------------TS @ 31.9----------YES---------------X----------NEW FOUNDLAND

2000---ALBERTO-------TS @ 22.3----------NO-----------------58.6-----X

2000---ISAAC------------TS @ 25.9----------NO-----------------56.2-----X

2002---DOLLY-----------TS @ 32.2----------NO-----------------53.7-----X

2003---ISABEL----------TS @ 32.7----------YES---------------X----------NORTH CAROLINA

2004---DANIELLE------TS @ 24.2----------NO-----------------45.2-----X

2004---IVAN--------------TS @ 30.3----------YES---------------X----------GRENADA,JAMAICA,CUBA,FLORIDA

2004---KARL-------------TS @ 32.1----------NO-----------------49.5-----X

2006---DEBBIE----------TS @ 28.1----------NO-----------------49.1-----X

2006---HELEN-----------TS @ 31.9----------NO-----------------57.0-----X

2007---MELISSA--------TS @ 27.4----------NO----------------53.5-----X

2008---BERTHA---------TS @ 24.0----------NO-----------------64.1-----X

2009---BILL----------------TS @ 34.5---------YES---------------68.9-----NOVA SCOTIA,NEW FOUNDLAND

2009---FRED-------------TS @ 25.4----------NO-----------------69.8-----X

2010---DANIELLE------TS @ 35.0----------NO-----------------61.0-----X

2010---Earl----------------TS @ 32.2--------- YES---------------75.2-----NOVA SCOTIA

2010---Igor-----------------TS @ 23.5----------YES--------------- ----BERMUDA,NEW FOUNDLAND

2010---Julia----------------TS @ 23.5----------NO----------------51.9-----X