Indian Ocean Signal is for Real

[JamieOber]

Except your "idea" that winter was over for the NE 1/15 is completely wrong...

NYC/upstate NY saw major snows on 2/25-26... just because Boston had relatively little snowfall doesn't mean the rest of the Northeast had little snow after 1/15. NYC had 20" (besides another 10" with 2/11) and upstate saw 3 feet+. I don't know how you could qualify the statement that "winter was over 1/15" with that kind of snow afterwards.

The notion that "the M/A had their best snow and cold that also ended roughly Feb 1" is even more ridiculous. From 2/1-2/12, absolutely everyone in the DC-PHL corridor saw over 36" of total snow, with many passing 50" with two back-to-back 2 foot storms for some in northern Maryland. Maybe you consider Philly and DC part of the deep South, or maybe you just never heard about the storms on 2/5-6 and 2/11 AND 2/25, but your post is completely off-base and incorrect, sorry. February was NYC, PHL, BWI, and DC's snowiest on record.... I don't know how you could qualify any of your statements. Boston =/= the rest of the Northeast, and just because your backyard did poorly doesn't mean the rest of the region fared as bad--in fact, quite the opposite, and it was about time, too.

Totally agree.

New York had their snowiest Feb on record and -1.5 for the month.

BWI had 50 inches in Feb.

I mean, c'mon.

[Typhoon Tip]

Except your "idea" that winter was over for the NE 1/15 is completely wrong...

NYC/upstate NY saw major snows on 2/25-26... just because Boston had relatively little snowfall doesn't mean the rest of the Northeast had little snow after 1/15. NYC had 20" (besides another 10" with 2/11) and upstate saw 3 feet+. I don't know how you could qualify the statement that "winter was over 1/15" with that kind of snow afterwards.

The notion that "the M/A had their best snow and cold that also ended roughly Feb 1" is even more ridiculous. From 2/1-2/12, absolutely everyone in the DC-PHL corridor saw over 36" of total snow, with many passing 50" with two back-to-back 2 foot storms for some in northern Maryland. Maybe you consider Philly and DC part of the deep South, or maybe you just never heard about the storms on 2/5-6 and 2/11 AND 2/25, but your post is completely off-base and incorrect, sorry. February was NYC, PHL, BWI, and DC's snowiest on record.... I don't know how you could qualify any of your statements. Boston =/= the rest of the Northeast, and just because your backyard did poorly doesn't mean the rest of the region fared as bad--in fact, quite the opposite, and it was about time, too.

You need to be corrected:

I said New England, not "NE", which for your context speaks of the North East? Either way, Upstate NY is not New England and can be defined as a disparate climatology.

I wasn't referring to all of the NE, I was talking about just New England, and spelled that out - you apparently missread - so to assert I was wrong is false. Most climo sites in New England began registering above normal temperatures and snow deficits on Feb 1 and closed the year out underperformed.

[JamieOber]

You need to be corrected:

I said New England, not "NE", which for your context speaks of the North East? Either way, Upstate NY is not New England and can be defined as a disparate climatology.

I wasn't referring to all of the NE, I was talking about just New England, and spelled that out - you apparently missread - so to assert I was wrong is false. Most climo sites in New England began registering above normal temperatures and snow deficits on Feb 1 and closed the year out underperformed.

This:

"But the M/A had their best snow and cold that also ended roughly Feb 1."

is simply spectacularly wrong. Could not be any more wrong.

[Nikolai]

You need to be corrected:

I said New England, not "NE", which for your context speaks of the North East? Either way, Upstate NY is not New England and can be defined as a disparate climatology.

I wasn't referring to all of the NE, I was talking about just New England, and spelled that out - you apparently missread - so to assert I was wrong is false. Most climo sites in New England began registering above normal temperatures and snow deficits on Feb 1 and closed the year out underperformed.

Yeah, once again, wrong. Were you asleep for all of last winter?

[Huffwx]

I'm scoring this a knockout for Nikolia and OberJamie. There was a clipper on Presidents day--the Feb 25-26 and early March storm.

[Typhoon Tip]

guys, you see ... you are again using this site for your own petty desires to erode perception of other people -

take down the adversarial tone - this is not the place for it.

that said, please register this statement: i was discussing New England - yes i made that other comment about the M/A but that was not the focus of the original discussion when it was said the winter ended IN NEW ENGLAND orginally - that latter statement is taken out of context really.

please. this is not about scoring knock outs -

[Mr Torchey]

guys, you see ... you are again using this site for your own petty desires to erode perception of other people -

take down the adversarial tone - this is not the place for it.

that said, please register this statement: i was discussing New England - yes i made that other comment about the M/A but that was not the focus of the original discussion when it was said the winter ended IN NEW ENGLAND orginally - that latter statement is taken out of context really.

please. this is not about scoring knock outs -

Well said. Winter said goodbye here in Ct middle February, and the horrific PV flooded NEW ENGLAND with nasty mild maritime air but gave places like nyc south some epic times mainly aided by some historical Dynamics during storms.

[JamieOber]

guys, you see ... you are again using this site for your own petty desires to erode perception of other people -

take down the adversarial tone - this is not the place for it.

that said, please register this statement: i was discussing New England - yes i made that other comment about the M/A but that was not the focus of the original discussion when it was said the winter ended IN NEW ENGLAND orginally - that latter statement is taken out of context really.

please. this is not about scoring knock outs -

Well, if you are going to make a statement like that, of course people are going to correct you. It's not about scoring knockouts, but pointing out an erroneous statement, which in this case was about the M/A, that had historic amounts of Feb snow.

I think we all sometimes don't realize what is happening outside our backyard. No big deal.

[Nikolai]

guys, you see ... you are again using this site for your own petty desires to erode perception of other people -

take down the adversarial tone - this is not the place for it.

that said, please register this statement: i was discussing New England - yes i made that other comment about the M/A but that was not the focus of the original discussion when it was said the winter ended IN NEW ENGLAND orginally - that latter statement is taken out of context really.

please. this is not about scoring knock outs -

You're making no sense here, and you're still very wrong. The map I posted for 2/25-26 clearly shows scattered areas of 30"+ in NEW ENGLAND (unless you don't consider your own state and Vermont parts of New England) and wide areas of 10"+. I mean, I dunno, but 10"+ generally is a significant event regardless of where you live, and 24"+ is very significant. The map I posted shows that winter obviously was NOT over by 1/15 for New England and you need to concede your argument--you were/are wrong, and my "adversarial" () tone is only because you continuously make statements that disregard everywhere besides your own backyard (here and on EUS).

Both the MA and New England (besides Boston!) saw major snows in February.

[Huffwx]

guys, you see ... you are again using this site for your own petty desires to erode perception of other people -

take down the adversarial tone - this is not the place for it.

that said, please register this statement: i was discussing New England - yes i made that other comment about the M/A but that was not the focus of the original discussion when it was said the winter ended IN NEW ENGLAND orginally - that latter statement is taken out of context really.

please. this is not about scoring knock outs -

Well, if you are going to make a statement like that, of course people are going to correct you. It's not about scoring knockouts, but pointing out an erroneous statement, which in this case was about the M/A, that had historic amounts of Feb snow.

I think we all sometimes don't realize what is happening outside our backyard. No big deal.

You're making no sense here, and you're still very wrong. The map I posted for 2/25-26 clearly shows scattered areas of 30"+ in NEW ENGLAND (unless you don't consider your own state and Vermont parts of New England) and wide areas of 10"+. I mean, I dunno, but 10"+ generally is a significant event regardless of where you live, and 24"+ is very significant. The map I posted shows that winter obviously was NOT over by 1/15 for New England and you need to concede your argument--you were/are wrong, and my "adversarial" () tone is only because you continuously make statements that disregard everywhere besides your own backyard (here and on EUS).

Both the MA and New England (besides Boston!) saw major snows in February.

Tip, my comments were in jest....my apologies if you took them as offensive.

I'm not sure what you are expecting. February was a historic snow month for 4 major airports-- DCA, IAD, PHL and BWI-- and shattered the Feb 1899 records. That's not Jan 30th. Sure, your intent wasn't about the MA, but you included and people want the correct information. The better pattern lasted down this way until early march--right after the Feb 26 event there was an event that the SW' timing wasn't quite right and it wasn't much..but parts of Central NC had 5-6 inches. A couple inches fell at my house March 1-2.

[skierinvermont]

You're making no sense here, and you're still very wrong. The map I posted for 2/25-26 clearly shows scattered areas of 30"+ in NEW ENGLAND (unless you don't consider your own state and Vermont parts of New England) and wide areas of 10"+. I mean, I dunno, but 10"+ generally is a significant event regardless of where you live, and 24"+ is very significant. The map I posted shows that winter obviously was NOT over by 1/15 for New England and you need to concede your argument--you were/are wrong, and my "adversarial" () tone is only because you continuously make statements that disregard everywhere besides your own backyard (here and on EUS).

Both the MA and New England (besides Boston!) saw major snows in February.

So one big storm in NNE after Jan 15 doesn't disprove his point that most of New England had below average snow and above normal temps the second half of winter. The places in New England that got painted by the Feb 25 storm average well over 60" a year (lots of them well over 120"). THe 30" amounts you are talking about occurred on mountain peaks that average >200" a year.

You're just trying to score points.

I think he was a little off base with the M/A.. they had cold and snow pretty much through the whole winter (although the below average temps were farther south in late Feb and March). But the second half of winter was pretty lame for most of us in New England. Outside the Feb 24 storm (which I was lucky enough to jackpot on but lots of people weren't so lucky) I had 4" in February and 3.5" in March (on 4/27). To have only 5 snow events of any size in February and March is incredibly poor for NNE.

[usedtobe]

So one big storm in NNE after Jan 15 doesn't disprove his point that most of New England had below average snow and above normal temps the second half of winter. The places that got painted by the Feb 25 storm average well over 60" a year (lots of them well over 120").

You're just trying to score points.

I think he was a little off base with the M/A.. they had cold and snow pretty much through the whole winter (although the below average temps were farther south in late Feb and March).

If you look at the 500h, it was pretty similar to many other ninos with a strongly negative NAO or AO. Look at the El Nino, negative NAO composite below, it still has nrn new england warm and the southeast coast. The big difference compared to a normal nino was the Midwest which was and plains which were colder than normal through Jan.

Here's last Jan15-March 15

Now did the winter suck up north, pretty much but the pattern was a nino pattern more than a nina pattern. In the latter, the southeast is warmer than normal.

[Nikolai]

So one big storm in NNE after Jan 15 doesn't disprove his point that most of New England had below average snow and above normal temps the second half of winter. The places in New England that got painted by the Feb 25 storm average well over 60" a year (lots of them well over 120"). THe 30" amounts you are talking about occurred on mountain peaks that average >200" a year.

You're just trying to score points.

I think he was a little off base with the M/A.. they had cold and snow pretty much through the whole winter (although the below average temps were farther south in late Feb and March). But the second half of winter was pretty lame for most of us in New England. Outside the Feb 24 storm (which I was lucky enough to jackpot on but lots of people weren't so lucky) I had 4" in February and 3.5" in March (on 4/27). To have only 5 snow events of any size in February and March is incredibly poor for NNE.

Tip's statement was

"Interesting. We here in New England were above normal February onward - normal for January forgiving a click perhaps... But we had Crocus shoots in early March - winter was over up this way. The idea that NE's winter was basically Dec 1 through Jan 15 was Nina like, period."

You say he was a little off-base for the MA? A little? It was only the snowiest month on record for everyone from DC-NYC.

Re: your second point--it would be like saying December was snowless last year if you disregard the 12/19 storm. You can't just ignore major events, or say "well, if that didn't happen..." because it did. Parts of New England saw a major snowstorm on 2/25-26, and to say that winter was over by 1/15 is completely wrong.

[skierinvermont]

If you look at the 500h, it was pretty similar to many other ninos with a strongly negative NAO or AO. Look at the El Nino, negative NAO composite below, it still has nrn new england warm and the southeast coast. The big difference compared to a normal nino was the Midwest which was and plains which were colder than normal through Jan.

Now did the winter suck up north, pretty much but the pattern was a nino pattern more than a nina pattern. In the latter, the southeast is warmer than normal.

Oh yes.. the pattern was very Nino like. Simply looking at temperatures and snow not the pattern, in New England it was cold first half warm snowless second half - which is typical of a Nina year esp in SNE. Of course the pattern that produced the warmth and lack of snow, was not Nina like at all.

[CoastalWx]

Tip's statement was

"Interesting. We here in New England were above normal February onward - normal for January forgiving a click perhaps... But we had Crocus shoots in early March - winter was over up this way. The idea that NE's winter was basically Dec 1 through Jan 15 was Nina like, period."

You say he was a little off-base for the MA? A little? It was only the snowiest month on record for everyone from DC-NYC.

Re: your second point--it would be like saying December was snowless last year if you disregard the 12/19 storm. You can't just ignore major events, or say "well, if that didn't happen..." because it did. Parts of New England saw a major snowstorm on 2/25-26, and to say that winter was over by 1/15 is completely wrong.

It was over pretty early last year. Sure some of the area saw a major storm, but that was relegated to the western part of New England...esp srn VT and wrn MA. If you compare what climo says for average snow in Feb and Mar, and then look at what happened, you'll see they were well below normal. Maine really got hosed.

[skierinvermont]

Tip's statement was

"Interesting. We here in New England were above normal February onward - normal for January forgiving a click perhaps... But we had Crocus shoots in early March - winter was over up this way. The idea that NE's winter was basically Dec 1 through Jan 15 was Nina like, period."

You say he was a little off-base for the MA? A little? It was only the snowiest month on record for everyone from DC-NYC.

Re: your second point--it would be like saying December was snowless last year if you disregard the 12/19 storm. You can't just ignore major events, or say "well, if that didn't happen..." because it did. Parts of New England saw a major snowstorm on 2/25-26, and to say that winter was over by 1/15 is completely wrong.

Ok he was wrong about the MA.. they had lots of snow in Feb (although I think late Feb and March were warm in the MA).

It's fair to remove 2/24 (the snow in NE actually was 2/24 not 2/25-26 which was actually a separate storm) because many locations in NE didn't see it. I just happened to jackpot but most of NE didn't see as much from 2/24-26. Certainly not enough to overcome what was generally a snowless and very warm second half to winter for almost all of New England.

Talk to anybody from New England and they will tell you last year sucked for the second half.. regardless of 2/24-26 to the contrary..

[keggwx]

Can we get this thread back on track. How about this winter. Let's discuss how the GFS can't even initialize the IO correctly right now.

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

Can we get this thread back on track. How about this winter. Let's discuss how the GFS can't even initialize the IO correctly right now.

last 3 days observed, submitted as evidence:

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

1. When enhanced forcing is located over the Indian Ocean, most specifically 60-100E, the EPO tends to be positive.

Check out the next two graphics and tell me how awesome this has been. Every time there are enhanced -OLR anomalies in the 60-100E belt, the EPO goes positive and the +OLR periods, while generally weaker, signal a negative tendency on the EPO.

In September, there was a more defined propagation of the -dAAM/dT migration while the +OLR anomaly was quite substantial, so this allowed for a bigger EPO response than the early August -EPO episode.

The big question then becomes: what happens as we go forward? Already, we are seeing SST changes across the Indian Ocean, as expected with a maturing La Niña. The SST relationship to forcing is part of the equation, for sure, but may not help much this winter, especially on smaller time scales than seasonal. So, yeah, I didn't really address the core debate about the Indian Ocean, but certainly addressed the physical relationships to look for, potentially, this winter that may signal a -EPO/cold signal.

[JBG]

Why? ...seriously just asking what the forecast philosophy is for that. It may be NINO climatology - I believe that -ENSO years tend to favor early winters that end abruptly.

I think it is so odd that last year was a very Nina like winter despite NOT actually being in a Nina in the preceding months.

Remember we're now in cold-phase for the long term PDO cycle. In those cycles many Niños don't assume full Niño characteristics. Key examples are 1968-9 (moderate Niño) and 1969-70 (Niño transitioning to Niña). Even almost snowless 1972-3 featured some serious cold from January 6 through 13, and much of February.

As far as the overall characterization of Niña climatology it's more true that they feature a lot of abrupt cold to warm and warm to cold changes than abrupt ends. Good examples of that are 1973-4 (big ice storm and big cold in mid-December, several ice storms and fairly cold first half of January and torch rest of January, and cold, somewhat snowy February.

[Typhoon Tip]

Tip, my comments were in jest....my apologies if you took them as offensive.

I'm not sure what you are expecting. February was a historic snow month for 4 major airports-- DCA, IAD, PHL and BWI-- and shattered the Feb 1899 records. That's not Jan 30th. Sure, your intent wasn't about the MA, but you included and people want the correct information. The better pattern lasted down this way until early march--right after the Feb 26 event there was an event that the SW' timing wasn't quite right and it wasn't much..but parts of Central NC had 5-6 inches. A couple inches fell at my house March 1-2.

Yeah, to re-iterate, I was speaking mainly for New England. I did mentioned the M/A at one passing but I wasn't honestly focused there; my original statement did say New England.

It's moot anyway - frankly, I believe it is less important the differences between the M/A and New England - it would seem unlikely just on the surface that there would be some kind of imposing boundary that separates the two just because it is a La Nina or whatever .. the atmosphere doesn't work that way. You could say with certitude the Nina climo varies between Australia and the eastern U.S., but between BOS and IAD? Eh, seems more likely any variations over such a small domain are indistinquishable from noise.

[Typhoon Tip]

Remember we're now in cold-phase for the long term PDO cycle. In those cycles many Niños don't assume full Niño characteristics. Key examples are 1968-9 (moderate Niño) and 1969-70 (Niño transitioning to Niña). Even almost snowless 1972-3 featured some serious cold from January 6 through 13, and much of February.

As far as the overall characterization of Niña climatology it's more true that they feature a lot of abrupt cold to warm and warm to cold changes than abrupt ends. Good examples of that are 1973-4 (big ice storm and big cold in mid-December, several ice storms and fairly cold first half of January and torch rest of January, and cold, somewhat snowy February.

This is a very good point here regarding the PDO.

[JBG]

Remember we're now in cold-phase for the long term PDO cycle. In those cycles many Niños don't assume full Niño characteristics. Key examples are 1968-9 (moderate Niño) and 1969-70 (Niño transitioning to Niña). Even almost snowless 1972-3 featured some serious cold from January 6 through 13, and much of February.

As far as the overall characterization of Niña climatology it's more true that they feature a lot of abrupt cold to warm and warm to cold changes than abrupt ends. Good examples of that are 1973-4 (big ice storm and big cold in mid-December, several ice storms and fairly cold first half of January and torch rest of January, and cold, somewhat snowy February.

This is a very good point here regarding the PDO.

Thanks for the compliment but I may have mixed up your negative and positive signs for ENSO.

Still, I think that many Niños don't get full Niño characteristics during cold phase; a prime example being that the upper Midwest and Northern Plains were not particularly mild last winter, unlike the almost snowless and toasty 1997-8 period where even INL didn't have a white Christmas. Contariwise warm-phase Niñas such as 1995-6 often acted more like Niños, complete with Miller A storms.

As for your post, I would agree that 1975-6, 1983-4, 1988-9 and 2007-8 were promising Niña early winters that came to a screeching halt (yes, with brief late February or March revivals). But contrary Niña examples, again from cold phases, are 1955-6, 1970-1, 1971-2, 1973-4, 1999-2000, and 2008-9 (cold neutral).

[Typhoon Tip]

Thanks for the compliment but I may have mixed up your negative and positive signs for ENSO.

Still, I think that many Niños don't get full Niño characteristics during cold phase; a prime example being that the upper Midwest and Northern Plains were not particularly mild last winter, unlike the almost snowless and toasty 1997-8 period where even INL didn't have a white Christmas. Contariwise warm-phase Niñas such as 1995-6 often acted more like Niños, complete with Miller A storms.

As for your post, I would agree that 1975-6, 1983-4, 1988-9 and 2007-8 were promising Niña early winters that came to a screeching halt (yes, with brief late February or March revivals). But contrary Niña examples, again from cold phases, are 1955-6, 1970-1, 1971-2, 1973-4, 1999-2000, and 2008-9 (cold neutral).

That's fine -

I believe the PDA sets along a similar multi decadal curve as the AMO - the current phase of which correlates positively to the NAO. I am wondering if there is any such correlation between the PDO and the EPO; CDC's correlation matrices don't really suggest so much - but their could be independent studies. Interesting.

Nice discrete analysis of the ENSO's during cool versus warm PDO's btw

[JBG]

That's fine -

I believe the PDA sets along a similar multi decadal curve as the AMO - the current phase of which correlates positively to the NAO. I am wondering if there is any such correlation between the PDO and the EPO; CDC's correlation matrices don't really suggest so much - but their could be independent studies. Interesting.

I thought the PDO and EPO were the same, no? I do suspect there's a correlation, maybe with a lag, between the PDO and NAO, with -NAO prevailing more often during -PDO phases, Of course the late 50's into the early 70's were extremely "blocky" as was last winter.

Nice discrete analysis of the ENSO's during cool versus warm PDO's btw

Thanks. I am an attorney and a history major, both of which hone memory.

[powderfreak]

Ok he was wrong about the MA.. they had lots of snow in Feb (although I think late Feb and March were warm in the MA).

It's fair to remove 2/24 (the snow in NE actually was 2/24 not 2/25-26 which was actually a separate storm) because many locations in NE didn't see it. I just happened to jackpot but most of NE didn't see as much from 2/24-26. Certainly not enough to overcome what was generally a snowless and very warm second half to winter for almost all of New England.

Talk to anybody from New England and they will tell you last year sucked for the second half.. regardless of 2/24-26 to the contrary..

Ehhh... I'm not trying to take sides here but dude that late February storm was our best of the entire winter last year. I had nearly 2 feet of mashed potatoes in the lower elevations and Mansfield/Stowe picked up an honest 4 feet in the upper elevations. That storm literally saved ski season up here. Sugarbush got like 5-6 feet.

That storm honestly was the largest, highest impact storm since Valentines Day 2007 up this way. It was like 1-2"/hr snows for 24 hours straight...and it wasn't light fluffy stuff. It was concrete and snow depths jumped several feet in two days.

[skierinvermont]

Ehhh... I'm not trying to take sides here but dude that late February storm was our best of the entire winter last year. I had nearly 2 feet of mashed potatoes in the lower elevations and Mansfield/Stowe picked up an honest 4 feet in the upper elevations. That storm literally saved ski season up here. Sugarbush got like 5-6 feet.

That storm honestly was the largest, highest impact storm since Valentines Day 2007 up this way. It was like 1-2"/hr snows for 24 hours straight...and it wasn't light fluffy stuff. It was concrete and snow depths jumped several feet in two days.

Oh I'm not saying it wasn't a huge storm for us or that it didn't make up for an otherwise crumby second half.. but outside of certain areas of VT and the Berks... it didn't make up for a terrible second half.

[nzucker]

Oh I'm not saying it wasn't a huge storm for us or that it didn't make up for an otherwise crumby second half.. but outside of certain areas of VT and the Berks... it didn't make up for a terrible second half.

Last winter was pretty weak in Vermont except for two massive storms that only affected some areas and weren't truly widespread. Long periods of nothingness and mild weather dominated the 2nd half of winter.

[keggwx]

Yes, way to get back on track here.