Groundbreaking Research submitted by Climate Scientist Professor Murry Salby

[Snow_Miser]

There is a very interesting research by Climate Scientist Professor Murry Salby that documents that 96% of the increase in CO2 since 1960, is due to natural causes. This means that the radiative forcing that man has added with increased CO2 emissions, may be substantially less than 1.4-1.6 w/m^2, since only 4% is due to anthropogenic causes.

Assuming Professor Salby's results are correct, the radiative anthropogenic forcing of anthropogenic CO2 ranges from .05 w/m^2 to .06 w/m^2.

He gave a speech the other day, and the abstract to his speech can be viewed here:

PROFESSOR MURRY SALBY

Chair of Climate, Macquarie University

Atmospheric Science, Climate Change and Carbon – Some Facts

Carbon dioxide is emitted by human activities as well as a host of natural processes. The satellite record, in concert with instrumental observations, is now long enough to have collected a population of climate perturbations, wherein the Earth-atmosphere system was disturbed from equilibrium. Introduced naturally, those perturbations reveal that net global emission of CO2 (combined from all sources, human and natural) is controlled by properties of the general circulation – properties internal to the climate system that regulate emission from natural sources. The strong dependence on internal properties indicates that emission of CO2 from natural sources, which accounts for 96 per cent of its overall emission, plays a major role in observed changes of CO2. Independent of human emission, this contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide is only marginally predictable and not controllable.

Professor Murry Salby holds the Climate Chair at Macquarie University and has had a lengthy career as a world-recognised researcher and academic in the field of Atmospheric Physics. He has held positions at leading research institutions, including the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, Princeton University, and the University of Colorado, with invited professorships at universities in Europe and Asia. At Macquarie University, Professor Salby uses satellite data and supercomputing to explore issues surrounding changes of global climate and climate variability over Australia. Professor Salby is the author of Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics, and Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate due out in 2011. Professor Salby’s latest research makes a timely and highly-relevant contribution to the current discourse on climate

Judith Curry has some

interesting comments. She says that if his findings are correct, it could revolutionize Climate Science.

[BethesdaWX]

Very interesting paper,

I think you may have taken that one statement out of context though, correct me if I'm wrong: The strong dependence on internal properties indicates that emission of CO2 from natural sources, which accounts for 96 per cent of its overall emission, plays a major role in observed changes of CO2.

I do not believe he was referring to it's increase in "96%", but more-so it's emission into the atmosphere during a general timeframe. There is the keeling curve and the airborne fraction.

[Snow_Miser]

I do not believe he was referring to it's increase, but more-so it's emission into the atmosphere during a general timeframe. There is the keeling curve and the airborne fraction.

I believe he is refering to the 96% emissions from natural causes from a time period starting in 1960.

[BethesdaWX]

I believe he is refering to the 96% emissions from natural causes from a time period starting in 1960.

I haven't listened to the podcast yet so I'll comment on it later I guess.

[valkhorn]

Two problems with this research:

1. It doesn't cite possible causes for the natural increase in CO2. Volcanic activity sure wouldn't account for it, so where is it coming from?
2. It doesn't account for the isotope levels of emitted CO2 which have changed considerably and which can be traced to manmade emissions.

[Snow_Miser]

Two problems with this research:

1. It doesn't cite possible causes for the natural increase in CO2. Volcanic activity sure wouldn't account for it, so where is it coming from?
2. It doesn't account for the isotope levels of emitted CO2 which have changed considerably and which can be traced to manmade emissions.

Wait for the paper to come out first, before you critique the paper.

[skierinvermont]

Very interesting paper,

I think you may have taken that one statement out of context though, correct me if I'm wrong: The strong dependence on internal properties indicates that emission of CO2 from natural sources, which accounts for 96 per cent of its overall emission, plays a major role in observed changes of CO2.

I do not believe he was referring to it's increase in "96%", but more-so it's emission into the atmosphere during a general timeframe. There is the keeling curve and the airborne fraction.

You got it Bethesda! That's exactly what he's saying.

And to think not that long ago you were claiming the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere was not anthropogenic.

(You could have stated it better than you did but I know what you're trying to say. It's the difference between emissions and the actual buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere. Humans have had very little effect on emissions... but have nearly doubled the concentration in the atmosphere due to the so called airborne fraction of our emissions which remain, and thus buildup, in the atmosphere each year).