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August 6-? Severe Weather


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Sitting in the town square when a friendly officer strolled up notifying us of a Severe TStorm warning for us for hail to quarters amd winds to 60. A surprise to a pleasant afternoon, but guessed something was up with building cumulus to the north for the last hour or so. Polygon looks to take the worst south of us but debating walk home before we get rained on or ducking into sbucks to see how it goes.

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Had a nice storm here. Torrential rain, winds to at least 40mph and a good bit of thunder and lightning.

About what I just had here. No hail, but torrential rains and some decent winds, not too much thunder and lightning though.

I am loving these good old fashioned torrential rains that are coming regularly-very little need to water anything and everything is green and lush despite the heat.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

518 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG ROSEWOOD 40.22N 83.96W

08/07/2011 CHAMPAIGN OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES/POWER LINES DOWN ROSEWOOD TO ST. PARIS.

HOUSE DESTROYED NR ROSEWOOD

There was a tornado warning for this area around this time so makes you wonder if there was a touchdown.

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Interesting...

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 6:07 PM EDT SUNDAY 7 AUGUST 2011.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

TORNADO WARNING FOR:

=NEW= RODNEY - SHEDDEN - WESTERN ELGIN COUNTY

=NEW= ST. THOMAS - AYLMER - EASTERN ELGIN COUNTY.

AT 6:00 PM EDT RADAR SHOW A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

ABOUT 20 KM WEST OF ST THOMAS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ABOUT 60 KM/H.

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Very impressive bowing line segment plowing through northern Nebraska.

yes i agree. it is such a compact system. i def see this being a long lived wind event. may start to lose its steam as it heads far east but the shortwaves should aid some in maintaining storms. last night i got hit from the decaying bow and MCV that tracked through Iowa. a line backbuilded SW of the main complex and went through my area. i had a red core pass over my house but the weird thing is, i barely got any rain. However, I did have 40-50mph winds for several minutes. kinda makes me think there was some dry air aloft evaporating the rain causing some downbursts

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with a few circulations aloft on the leading edge of the northern part of the bow up around Butte, can def see them looping velocity.

Yeah I saw that too, another one developing right now. The interaction early in the loop ( 3-4 hours ago) between that supercell and the pre-existing line segment was interesting to watch develop.

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yes i agree. it is such a compact system. i def see this being a long lived wind event. may start to lose its steam as it heads far east but the shortwaves should aid some in maintaining storms. last night i got hit from the decaying bow and MCV that tracked through Iowa. a line backbuilded SW of the main complex and went through my area. i had a red core pass over my house but the weird thing is, i barely got any rain. However, I did have 40-50mph winds for several minutes. kinda makes me think there was some dry air aloft evaporating the rain causing some downbursts

Some of the guidance is suggestive of this system tracking all night long. Shear associated with the embedded wave and the veering/increasing LLJ through the nite are supportive of that, and the increasing trends with this line segment, the substantial and impressive cold pool it has developed, and favorable upstream soundings also support that.

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Pretty amazing...that outflow from the MCS across northern NE has made it all the way to North Platte. It just went through here, and storms just initiated along it to the east as the LLJ begins to ramp up.

this is one of the most dynamic bows i have seen. it is such a compact system with a tight circulation. wouldnt be surprised to see some tor reports, esp as the LLJ ramps up. it was amazing watching this evolved. supercells were being pulled into the line segment and remained semi-discrete for a while embedded in the line and finally the whole thing consolidated. very photogenic on radar presentation

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Some of the guidance is suggestive of this system tracking all night long. Shear associated with the embedded wave and the veering/increasing LLJ through the nite are supportive of that, and the increasing trends with this line segment, the substantial and impressive cold pool it has developed, and favorable upstream soundings also support that.

With 0-6km shear of 55kts near the bow and decent amount of instability aided with a good cold pool it should make it to DSM.

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this is one of the most dynamic bows i have seen. it is such a compact system with a tight circulation. wouldnt be surprised to see some tor reports, esp as the LLJ ramps up. it was amazing watching this evolved. supercells were being pulled into the line segment and remained semi-discrete for a while embedded in the line and finally the whole thing consolidated. very photogenic on radar presentation

With 0-6km shear of 55kts near the bow and decent amount of instability aided with a good cold pool it should make it to DSM.

post-999-0-01917000-1312774851.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1894

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1028 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NEB...WRN IA...EXTREME SERN

SD.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 736...741...

VALID 080328Z - 080530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

736...741...CONTINUES.

COUNTIES HAVE BEEN APPENDED TO WW 741 OVER SERN SD AND NERN NEB PER

COORD W/FSD. ADDITIONAL WW BAY BE REQUIRED OVER ADJACENT PORTIONS

IA. WW 741 MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND BOW AND RELATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

MEANWHILE...GIVEN CONVECTIVE/STABILIZATION TRENDS...REMAINDER WW 736

MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OR CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 04Z

EXPIRATION.

MAIN SVR CONCERN REMAINS BOW ECHO MOVING EWD ABOUT 50 KT ACROSS NRN

NEB...TOWARD NERN NEB...EXTREME SERN SD AND NWRN IA. SEVERAL

MEASURED SVR GUSTS AND REPORTS OF DAMAGING WIND HAVE OCCURRED WITH

THIS COMPLEX. WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND REAR-INFLOW JET HAVE

BEEN EVIDENT FOR A FEW HOURS...THE LATTER REACHING SFC WITH

PERSISTENT SVR POSTCONVECTIVE WINDS AT VTN AND ANW. ACTIVITY IS

FORWARD-PROPAGATING ALONG THETAE GRADIENT CORRESPONDING TO NRN RIM

OF RICHER SFC MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE RELATIVELY

WEAK PER REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER/SFC DATA...FAST TRANSLATIONAL SPEED

OF MCS ENSURES STG STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. MEANWHILE...FORCED ASCENT

ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STG COLD POOL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT

COMPLEX FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...AS IT MOVES THROUGH

FAVORABLE BUOYANCY. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST

WEAKER MLCINH TO ITS SE...ACROSS E-CENTRAL NEB...AND MCS MAY UNDERGO

NET ESEWD TURN AS IT APCHS NEB/IA BORDER REGION ACCORDINGLY.

EFFECTIVE SFC-BASED PARCELS YIELD MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG OVER

PORTIONS E-CENTRAL NEB AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL IA. ONLY SLOW

WEAKENING IN CAPE WITH TIME IS EXPECTED OVER ERN NEB THROUGH SWRN IA

GIVEN RICHNESS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER DEW POINTS WILL

CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT LOWER ACROSS NRN IA.

..EDWARDS.. 08/08/2011

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 41410018 41569916 42069842 42519823 42809830 43049862

43059595 42389459 40939487 40649638 40769847 41410018

CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

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With 0-6km shear of 55kts near the bow and decent amount of instability aided with a good cold pool it should make it to DSM.

I totally agree. the environment is very supportive all the way to DSM. after that it gets a lil iffy. the wind shear is still decent however cape is dropping off pretty quick. only 1000J/kg here in central il. but with the speed of this thing and a strong cold pool, it may be able to make it through. the theta e axis becomes more undefined the farther east it gets so not sure how this will effect its direction. it looks like it will take a gradual SE turn based on the way the gradient slopes.

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Recently updated day 1 outlook, sliced and diced a bit, or refined if you will.

GENERAL MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE

GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...LEADING

TO SLIGHTLY MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED

STATES. THIS TREND RESULTED IN A MORE ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY

YESTERDAY...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE AREAS OF RISK

TODAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO MESOSCALE DETAILS...HAVE OPTED TO BREAK

LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO SMALLER THREAT ZONES.

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