cyclone77 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 It's a no go for me. Latest models (12z RUC/NAM) show pathetic winds below H7. What a drastic change on the 12z NAM compared to last night's 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Hmmm, wasn't expecting convection today. Should be interesting, especially with the morning sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 It's a no go for me. Latest models (12z RUC/NAM) show pathetic winds below H7. What a drastic change on the 12z NAM compared to last night's 00z. What a change indeed. Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 FWIW the HRRR has semi discrete developed around FSD into NE later this afternoon then develops it into an MCS that makes to eastern IA/western IL by 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Pretty big changes to Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 T'storm has popped up overhead. I had just got finished cutting the grass when it started pouring rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 And lol with respect to Sunday. GRR's discussion is a hoot as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 That's an eastern IA surprise for sure if that verifies overnight tonight. Meanwhile I have convection getting started here in northern IN with a tor warning for rotation in Fulton County OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Lock it in. With 35-40kt mid-level, and 50-60kt upper level westerlies over Iowa this evening the above definitely looks possible. RUC maintains >2000j/kg cape well after midnight over much of Iowa and Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Supercell north of Grand Island looks like it could be a problem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Supercell north of Grand Island looks like it could be a problem... Intensifying quite nicely per NWS radar with velocity scan starting to get interesting. Tor warned now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Pretty classic development of that supercell just as it entered Merrick County, Nebraska. At 22:45z the storm began to rapidly intensify, and the satellite shows an impressive storm. 10 minutes later, the storm was turning hard right and was tornado warned. And on the satellite you can now see an increase in Cu development on the southwestern flank of the storm (indicative of RFD development). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Looks to be strong rotation on that storm. The storm to the north, west of Norfolk looks good too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 SPC WRF and HRRR did a nice job with evolution, albeit maybe a hair too far north with their placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 The portion of the line near the Missouri border in Iowa is moving very quickly. The northern end of the line up towards I-80 has a few cells that you can tell are slowly rotating. Would not be surprised to see a nice WAA wing develop out in front of the line in the next hour or two. Probably along or just north of the highway 34 corridor. Could be some very strong winds impacting Osceola/Chariton/Albia/Ottumwa/Fairfield eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 The portion of the line near the Missouri border in Iowa is moving very quickly. The northern end of the line up towards I-80 has a few cells that you can tell are slowly rotating. Would not be surprised to see a nice WAA wing develop out in front of the line in the next hour or two. Probably along or just north of the highway 34 corridor. Could be some very strong winds impacting Osceola/Chariton/Albia/Ottumwa/Fairfield eventually. i agree! it also will be interesting to see how the outflow boundary from the storms behind the main line affect it. have to say, hrrr did a nice job with this one earlier today as it has performed not so well lately lol. i don't expect it to this time of year though lol. btw, hi everyone, first post. been posting on accuweather forums for a while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 i agree! it also will be interesting to see how the outflow boundary from the storms behind the main line affect it. have to say, hrrr did a nice job with this one earlier today as it has performed not so well lately lol. i don't expect it to this time of year though lol. btw, hi everyone, first post. been posting on accuweather forums for a while! Welcome to the boards! Where you located? A few cells have popped north of Chariton in the last few scans. May be the start of the WAA wing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Welcome to the boards! Where you located? A few cells have popped north of Chariton in the last few scans. May be the start of the WAA wing. thanks! and just noticed that on the last few scans! i'm from peoria, il! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 1204 AM TSTM WND GST ALBIA 41.03N 92.80W 08/07/2011 E60 MPH MONROE IA TRAINED SPOTTER Decent mid-upper level winds helping push the QLCS quickly eastward through Iowa along and south of I-80. Definitely a well developed cold pool now as well. The lack of strong instability (above 3000j/kg) is keeping things from getting too out of control, but 60-70mph gusts along and south of I-80 look probable for the next several hours. SPC just recently expanded the watch to include the QC. We may get in on the action a bit later tonight, but still a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 1204 AM TSTM WND GST ALBIA 41.03N 92.80W 08/07/2011 E60 MPH MONROE IA TRAINED SPOTTER Decent mid-upper level winds helping push the QLCS quickly eastward through Iowa along and south of I-80. Definitely a well developed cold pool now as well. The lack of strong instability (above 3000j/kg) is keeping things from getting too out of control, but 60-70mph gusts along and south of I-80 look probable for the next several hours. SPC just recently expanded the watch to include the QC. We may get in on the action a bit later tonight, but still a long ways to go. Ya it will be interesting to see how long it survives moving eastward, low level moisture certainly not a problem but MLCAPE goes down as you get into IL but still a decent amount a MUCAPE and the mid-level suport is decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Ya it will be interesting to see how long it survives moving eastward, low level moisture certainly not a problem but MLCAPE goes down as you get into IL but still a decent amount a MUCAPE and the mid-level suport is decent. Yeah, it's gonna be interesting to watch. Bulk shear remains very supportive through Illinois, and instability actually slightly increases east of the Mississippi a bit over the next few hours per latest RUC. With the well established cold pool this may continue to advance/propagate eastward through Illinois and could even end up impacting Indiana later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Here is the new day 1 outlook for today (Sunday) from the Storm Prediction Center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Oh well, at least if nothing else we have full sunshine to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 MI out of the slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Golf ball size hail in IWX's CWA. 1158 AM HAIL 1 N RADIOVILLE 41.17N 86.89W 08/07/2011 M1.75 INCH STARKE IN PUBLIC GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR THE STARKE AND PULASKI COUNTY LINE WITH TREE BRANCHES DOWN SPC with a recent MD out for a possible watch issuance for IN, IL, OH, etc. And just to the NW of here... BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1246 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA... * UNTIL 115 PM EDT * AT 1244 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR REMINGTON...OR 6 MILES EAST OF WADENA...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 DTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1132 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011 .UPDATE... RATHER ILL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CONGLOMERATION OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING HAS STARTED TO BECOME REORIENTED NORMAL TO THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE LAST HOUR AND IS EXHIBITING SOME SEMBLANCE OF ORGANIZATION. THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW SHORT WAVELENGTH CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM BENTON HARBOR TO BATTLE CREEK. THE BULK FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS A MID-LEVEL PV ANOMALY. THE MAIN MESOSCALE SUPPORT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE METRO REGION SOUTH TO THE OHIO BORDER. CURRENT TIMING APPEARS TO BE DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION STILL REMAIN REAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HOWELL TO MOUNT CLEMENS. FARTHER NORTH THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RESPONSE THUS FAR. EXPECTATION IS THAT CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH THE STRAITS SOUTHWEST TO NEAR MILWAUKEE. THERE IS AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE COLUMN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS RATHER WARM...LIMITING THE QUALITY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WILL DIURNAL TRENDS PLAY OUT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BEFORE GETTING TOO BEARISH. && Also added heavy rain wording to the GRIDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 A bit of action coming my way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 81/81 at Warsaw with moisture pooling ahead of the storms in IN. Noisy t storm starting here as I type this. No svr warning. Torrential rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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