40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 The overall pattern still reminds me of last year over in Europe/Asia. Cold in England with ridging near Moscow..more or less. I wonder of we see the pattern rapidly build back the snowcover like it did last year. We probably will....I think we'll see a somehwat tamer version of last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 The OP ECM has been waffling a ton in the long-range over the placement of the ridge over the Arctic. It originally prognosticated that the ridge would be centered near the Laptev Sea, which is not that bad for the ice since it creates a negative dipole anomaly with north winds on the front side of the high over the Pacific side of the ice pack, which is vulnerable to melting. As Andrew wrote, the Euro then switched to a more unfavorable configuration where the ridge would push towards the Beaufort Sea and allow winds to shoot ice through the Transpolar Drift Stream out of the Arctic....that was yesterday at 12z and last night's 0z. Now, the 12z is back to showing a pattern more amicable to the health of the cryosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Wrong...12z Euro says no dice, ridge over the Laptev, not the Beaufort. This is what skier calls a terrible pattern for the ice, almost comical...huge ULL settling into the Beaufort with cool 850s covering much of the ice pack: ... Yet another way to examine that is the +AO that has rather abruptly shown up on the 8-10 day mean. +AO is what the winter weather enthusiasts at our lat/lon should want between August and October; by the time October arrives afterward, there is usually an abundance of snow cover due to enhanced storminess at high latitudes - a reflection of +AO. Who knows what this ASO will have in store for the AO; how the background tendency for -AO is balanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 We probably will....I think we'll see a somehwat tamer version of last season. I have a memo on my desk that says last season sucked - I agree with said memo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Yet another way to examine that is the +AO that has rather abruptly shown up on the 8-10 day mean. +AO is what the winter weather enthusiasts at our lat/lon should want between August and October; by the time October arrives afterward, there is usually an abundance of snow cover due to enhanced storminess at high latitudes - a reflection of +AO. Who knows what this ASO will have in store for the AO; how the background tendency for -AO is balanced. intra-annual cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 I have a memo on my desk that says last season sucked - I agree with said memo. What are you talking about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Wrong...12z Euro says no dice, ridge over the Laptev, not the Beaufort. This is what skier calls a terrible pattern for the ice, almost comical...huge ULL settling into the Beaufort with cool 850s covering much of the ice pack: I made the post at 11 am.. you use a model run that comes out at 3pm to bash me? Moreover, even the 12z ECM verbatim is poor for the ice through D7 or 8 and doesn't become favorable until D9 (the least predictable part of the forecast period). You cherry picked a D9 operational model chart from a run that hadn't come out yet at the time of my post to bash me and was mostly unfavorable prior to D9 anyways. Seriously dude.. WTF? I know you're pissed off about some things.. but get a grip. Your post is downright vitriolic. What should I expect tomorrow.. bashing me using D12 of next month's18z DGEX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 I made the post at 11 am.. you use a model run that comes out at 3pm to bash me? Moreover, even the 12z ECM verbatim is poor for the ice through D7 or 8 and doesn't become favorable until D9 (the least predictable part of the forecast period). You cherry picked a D9 operational model chart from a run that hadn't come out yet at the time of my post to bash me and was mostly unfavorable prior to D9 anyways. Seriously dude.. WTF? I know you're pissed off about some things.. but get a grip. Your post is downright vitriolic. What should I expect tomorrow.. bashing me using D12 of next month's18z DGEX? You make these blanket comments "the ice is going to get hammered in the next 10 days..." Yet you routinely criticize me for using models beyond D4. And you imply that just because generally unreliable models are bad for the ice pack at 192 hours that we've got a decent shot at hitting 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 You make these blanket comments "the ice is going to get hammered in the next 10 days..." Yet you routinely criticize me for using models beyond D4. And you imply that just because generally unreliable models are bad for the ice pack at 192 hours that we've got a decent shot at hitting 2007. The 12z ECM remained generally poor for the ice over the next 7 days... the fact that D9 flipped around doesn't detract from the general point over the next 10 days. Moreover.. the 12z ECM wasn't out at the time of my post. And the ECM ensembles do not support the ECM op and lean closer to the GFS which remains extremely unfavorable for the ice. So again.. you used the very end of an operational model run which wasn't even out at the time of my post and isn't even supported by its ensembles anyways. Anyways if you want to bash me and call me names based on D23 of next month's run go right ahead.. I'm not going to turn this into another flamewar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 The 12z ECM remained generally poor for the ice over the next 7 days... the fact that D9 flipped around doesn't detract from the general point. Moreover.. the 12z ECM wasn't out at the time of my post. And the ECM ensembles do not support the ECM op and lean closer to the GFS which remains extremely unfavorable for the ice. So again.. you used the very end of an operational model run which wasn't even out at the time of my post and isn't even supported by its ensembles anyways. Anyways if you want to bash me and call me names based on D23 of next month's run go right ahead.. I'm not going to turn this into another flamewar. Yes, I agree it's a very confusing forecast at this point...check out my post at the climate forum....we went from a 576dm ridge over the Bering/Chukchi/E Siberian last night at 192 on the 0z Euro to tonight's run showing 560dm heights over most of the area with a 540dm ULL over Western Alaska. The OP Euro has been extremely inconsistent over the last few days, so we don't really know what to expect. If you trust the GFS though, then while you get an unfavorable pattern for part of the period, it also shows a huge cool-down developing across the Arctic in the long-range as the generally unfavorable vortex over Greenland with its core of -12C 850s starts to ooze into the rest of the Arctic Circle, lowering heights everywhere, which is a variant on what the ECM has shown towards Day 10 too. So then you might expect to lose more ice in the Day 5-7 period but less out to Day 10 and into late August. But saying the "ice is going to get hammered" is a bit bold. A good number of the Euro runs have been showing an OK pattern, the melt has been sluggish so far in August and slowed the past 2 days, and we're getting towards the end of climo for big melts except in anomalous years anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Yes, I agree it's a very confusing forecast at this point...check out my post at the climate forum....we went from a 576dm ridge over the Bering/Chukchi/E Siberian last night at 192 on the 0z Euro to tonight's run showing 560dm heights over most of the area with a 540dm ULL over Western Alaska. The OP Euro has been extremely inconsistent over the last few days, so we don't really know what to expect. If you trust the GFS though, then while you get an unfavorable pattern for part of the period, it also shows a huge cool-down developing across the Arctic in the long-range as the generally unfavorable vortex over Greenland with its core of -12C 850s starts to ooze into the rest of the Arctic Circle, lowering heights everywhere, which is a variant on what the ECM has shown towards Day 10 too. So then you might expect to lose more ice in the Day 5-7 period but less out to Day 10 and into late August. But saying the "ice is going to get hammered" is a bit bold. A good number of the Euro runs have been showing an OK pattern, the melt has been sluggish so far in August and slowed the past 2 days, and we're getting towards the end of climo for big melts except in anomalous years anyway. Yes it may have been a bit bold but I don't think the ECM usually flops around this much in the D4-8 period.. it's not like I was talking D8-10. We had pretty good agreement on GFS and ECM and ensembles until the 12z ECM fell off the wagon as your post shows. The ensembles are still pretty unfavorable though and have remained more consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 The Euro has flopped around like John Kerry Circa 2004. JK. everything still looks good for a 4.5 mil km2 min or so. but I would be more concerned about the area and volume, MY ice as well. the area is still running way low compared to the extent. Something will give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 8, 2011 Author Share Posted August 8, 2011 What are you talking about... lol, no, I didn't like last year's snow distribution. The 3 top tier events of the season deeply butt-banged the Rt 2 corridor with an incidiously modeled "v-notch" in the QPF that actually verified!! f k that. keep it. I'd rather be nickle and dimed from end to end. December was stolen to less than mediocrity, and though some like to argue the point February was an afterthought of winter at best while the snow pack dwindled perfectly to take away any excitement for Spring flood. No no. I'd rather a 1993-1994 or 1995-1996, ...etc, over last year any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Skier and Zuckerman seriously need a room...wtf lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Skier and Zuckerman seriously need a room...wtf lol We had a room. We were roommates at Middlebury College in our junior year. That's how I got addicted to weather. Now we're mortal enemies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 lol, no, I didn't like last year's snow distribution. The 3 top tier events of the season deeply butt-banged the Rt 2 corridor with an incidiously modeled "v-notch" in the QPF that actually verified!! f k that. keep it. I'd rather be nickle and dimed from end to end. December was stolen to less than mediocrity, and though some like to argue the point February was an afterthought of winter at best while the snow pack dwindled perfectly to take away any excitement for Spring flood. No no. I'd rather a 1993-1994 or 1995-1996, ...etc, over last year any day. 93-94 gave me an even bigger FU......I only got like 78" If the largest "screw job" of a season is 12" of heavily drifted snow, then I can live with that. I'd also rather see the massive, extraordinarily high WE snowpack, which will inherently only come in a distribution of that ilk....at least at this latitude. I understand the '96 argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 16, 2011 Author Share Posted August 16, 2011 Some improvements; 2007 parallel jumped tracks now into the mean of the last 4 to 5 years. In fact, the curve almost looks like it wants to prematurely nadir ...have to get past Sept 15 to see if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 17, 2011 Author Share Posted September 17, 2011 45 day later and let us see where we are with the cryosphere. Seeing as there are some significant correlation studies between the health of the cryosphere and the ensuing cold season AO phase modes (positive correlation as outlined before), it is worth it to have continued monitoring of the field as the Meteorological autumn continues to evolve (that began on September 1 per annum). I did originally choose August 1 to begin this, but that was really because I wanted to include the year ending termination, and perhaps most important (in my mind!) coming up over the next 45 days will be the actual recovery rate - much less important to me is the phase state at any scalar measure/moment in time. That rate of change is in nature/physics always much more telling as to the characterization of a field in its study. Rapid growth in plant life means ideal leading environmental parameters lend to superior generation potential. In deep field astronomy, stars tend to form in greater numbers in what are often referred to as "star nurseries" - nebular plumes of hydrogen gas many hundreds of light years across where cold temperatures and "clumping" triggers gravitational collapse more efficiently, such that the rate of star generation is notably higher in these regions compared to where the density of non-gravitationally bound gas is tenuous/gossimer. Extending this philosophy in the observational effort of the cryosphere, regardless of whether we ended this year closer to 2007 or 2008 as an analog (it will be 2008 as shown below), the next 45 to 60 days the rate of recovery should be intriguing. The best way to really do this is to somehow tabulate the years of better regeneration of sea-ice/land snow, and graph them against the ensuing cold season AO mode, to in the least have a differential -vs- mode comparison; it's hard to get that kind of discrete data without paying for it though. So perhaps keeping this intuitive for now... The last 5 days or so of the animations provided at IMS show some subtle indications that the sea ice deterioration rate has come to neutral (even loss and gain over the last week). This appeal is well supported by their own graphical product comparing the last several years by date: It is possible, though not directly predictable, that we have bottomed out and over the next 1 to 2 weeks we see the 2011 curve begin gains. 2009 is one year over the last 5 that demonstrated the current period in September as its nader, so therein is plausibility this time. We'll have to wait and see. It is also possible that the recent 2 weeks is merely a leveling off before some final decent, but I don't think so. The reason why is because I have been noticing no shortage in large areal coverage of substantially cold thickness regions - snow cover increasing of the Siberian Peninsula is also indicative of that. The waters of the polar region that opened up are conditionally quite prone to refreezing ... The system is complicated, no doubt! But it seem quite plausible in my mind that a condition leading refreezing combined with well timed cold thickness arrival could very well trigger more rapid recovery rates ...perhaps similar to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 An earlier min would match up very nicely to the intra-annual phase change of the AO. It's now been averaging positive for three weeks now after being in the basement since late May. Colder and also stormier conditions have arrived in the arctic which is adding snow cover, and compensating for ice loss while also starting to turn the corner. Best analog for this is 2009, which followed a similar low frequency NAM evolution, had a descending -QBO, and as we can see, experienced an earlier min and faster recovery. 2011 is certainly shifted down from 2009 levels, but should follow similar changes over the next few months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 An earlier min would match up very nicely to the intra-annual phase change of the AO. It's now been averaging positive for three weeks now after being in the basement since late May. Colder and also stormier conditions have arrived in the arctic which is adding snow cover, and compensating for ice loss while also starting to turn the corner. Best analog for this is 2009, which followed a similar low frequency NAM evolution, had a descending -QBO, and as we can see, experienced an earlier min and faster recovery. 2011 is certainly shifted down from 2009 levels, but should follow similar changes over the next few months Does that mean we are going to get a monster -AO/-NAO in October too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 45 day later and let us see where we are with the cryosphere. Seeing as there are some significant correlation studies between the health of the cryosphere and the ensuing cold season AO phase modes (positive correlation as outlined before), it is worth it to have continued monitoring of the field as the Meteorological autumn continues to evolve (that began on September 1 per annum). I did originally choose August 1 to begin this, but that was really because I wanted to include the year ending termination, and perhaps most important (in my mind!) coming up over the next 45 days will be the actual recovery rate - much less important to me is the phase state at any scalar measure/moment in time. That rate of change is in nature/physics always much more telling as to the characterization of a field in its study. Rapid growth in plant life means ideal leading environmental parameters lend to superior generation potential. In deep field astronomy, stars tend to form in greater numbers in what are often referred to as "star nurseries" - nebular plumes of hydrogen gas many hundreds of light years across where cold temperatures and "clumping" triggers gravitational collapse more efficiently, such that the rate of star generation is notably higher in these regions compared to where the density of non-gravitationally bound gas is tenuous/gossimer. Extending this philosophy in the observational effort of the cryosphere, regardless of whether we ended this year closer to 2007 or 2008 as an analog (it will be 2008 as shown below), the next 45 to 60 days the rate of recovery should be intriguing. The best way to really do this is to somehow tabulate the years of better regeneration of sea-ice/land snow, and graph them against the ensuing cold season AO mode, to in the least have a differential -vs- mode comparison; it's hard to get that kind of discrete data without paying for it though. So perhaps keeping this intuitive for now... The last 5 days or so of the animations provided at IMS show some subtle indications that the sea ice deterioration rate has come to neutral (even loss and gain over the last week). This appeal is well supported by their own graphical product comparing the last several years by date: It is possible, though not directly predictable, that we have bottomed out and over the next 1 to 2 weeks we see the 2011 curve begin gains. 2009 is one year over the last 5 that demonstrated the current period in September as its nader, so therein is plausibility this time. We'll have to wait and see. It is also possible that the recent 2 weeks is merely a leveling off before some final decent, but I don't think so. The reason why is because I have been noticing no shortage in large areal coverage of substantially cold thickness regions - snow cover increasing of the Siberian Peninsula is also indicative of that. The waters of the polar region that opened up are conditionally quite prone to refreezing ... The system is complicated, no doubt! But it seem quite plausible in my mind that a condition leading refreezing combined with well timed cold thickness arrival could very well trigger more rapid recovery rates ...perhaps similar to last year. If you want to talk about rates instead of actual state of conditions.. then the best scenario would be an ice free arctic since the rate of recovery is simply a function of how low you get in summer. 2007 actually had a very fast rate of recovery approximately equal to 2008 it just started out lower. But 07-08 didn't exactly have a -AO/NAO. Moreover, I don't expect a 2008-esque recovery because the SSTs are warmer this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Does that mean we are going to get a monster -AO/-NAO in October too? doubt it. The easterly QBO was much further along in maturity at this point in 2009, and definitely assisted with the low index NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2011 Author Share Posted October 2, 2011 Hard to believe it has been a month since I update this thread; where does the time go! It appears that the system is in recovery and that the nadir has come and gone back around 10th of September. This ending minimum date obviously varies from year to year, but it is interesting to know when that happens and see if we can identify causes. I believe the recent +AO is assisting here. It is hard perhaps to get one's head around this, but a warm pattern at our latitude associated with +AOs limiting cold transport in the autumn, is ideal for building snow pack and to some degree recovering sea ice. These graphs argue for that theoretical connection taking place: The former of these two shows the AO migrating positive and remaining that way the balance of September; approximately 10th or perhaps the 12th of the month the total land/sea values passed through the minimum and began increasing. There is arguably a 2ndary attempt at a minimum but it fell shy - the overall trend line since 10th of September is up. Also, it was sited on the September 1 update that the 2008 autumn numbers (at least graphically) appeared to be the best analog of the past 6 years combined and that still appears to be the case. This is actually good news for winter weather enthusiasm. You want this aggressive storminess character to the polar field domain earlier on in the autumn, because that is the better lag correlation for cold events at mid latitudes during the DJF period. *This is not a seasonal outlook but covers a single variable in that effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Northern hemispheric snow cover starting October above average. Though I would like to see the Eurasia region get going. Most of the snow is in eastern Siberia at the moment toward Kamchatka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2011 Author Share Posted October 2, 2011 Northern hemispheric snow cover starting October above average. Though I would like to see the Eurasia region get going. Most of the snow is in eastern Siberia at the moment toward Kamchatka. Yeah I noticed this too, interesting... One question I'm curious over is if the polar domain shows any correlation in quadrature, or if that becomes "noisy" and it really is just the whole of the domain that correlates better - not sure but it is an interesting question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Yeah I noticed this too, interesting... One question I'm curious over is if the polar domain shows any correlation in quadrature, or if that becomes "noisy" and it really is just the whole of the domain that correlates better - not sure but it is an interesting question. Eurasian snow cover was shown to have the best correlation, but it wasn't all that much more than Siberia/Asia as a whole...so I guess its not hugely important. But I'd still like to see that region begin building up a snow pack so that Siberia as a whole will be above average in easier fashion. But within this own study, there were plenty of winters where the correlation didn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 3, 2011 Author Share Posted October 3, 2011 Eurasian snow cover was shown to have the best correlation, but it wasn't all that much more than Siberia/Asia as a whole...so I guess its not hugely important. But I'd still like to see that region begin building up a snow pack so that Siberia as a whole will be above average in easier fashion. But within this own study, there were plenty of winters where the correlation didn't work out. Yeah now that you mention, the Siberian peninsula does ring a bell, but Eurasion is interesting - that seems a little spatially challenged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Yeah now that you mention, the Siberian peninsula does ring a bell, but Eurasion is interesting - that seems a little spatially challenged. Eurasia appears about normal for this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 Eurasia appears about normal for this point in time. looks substantially below average to me although this is Oct 5. Also the NH as a whole is below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2011 Share Posted October 9, 2011 I think the snowcover should build up nicely in the next 2 weeks, with the Canadian side perhaps building quickly too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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