Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Seeing as N. Hemisphere snow and ice coverage is a significant leading indicator for available cold, and also has been time-lag correlated to -AO phase states, I always like to privately begin fantasize about our ensuing late autumn and cold season through the looking glass up north. Now more than ever it seems the monitoring of the Aug-Oct recovery of the ice cap and eventual land-based snow and ice coverage are important, because we have descended beneath 0.0 along the curve of the -AO/NAO tendency curve in the multi-decade oscillation. There are relatively intriguing observations early on... Where do we stand now (data provided by http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/) not good: Relative to the current times where/when just 3 seasons ago the ice cap over the polar regions suffered the greatest loss of ice during the mid to late summer than had previously been measured by science, I was alarmed to see the pace nearly identical to that season. Here a product found at the same link above that graphically illustrates the fact that we are in trouble; there is a caveat though that I will discuss later. First ... Clearly we see that the dreaded 2007 numbers and the behavior of the curve are pretty well in tandem. There really isn't much more to add there, except to say that it creepily scores us a little closer to the predictions by NASA of eventually losing polar ice caps altogether during summer (which has all kinds of global climate feed-back nightmares that we won't get into for now). All is not lost though.. Last year we saw fantastic rate of recovery - that specific aspect is what we should watch. In about a month on average the losses ceases and recovery begins. It will be first interesting to see if this season's losses overcome the previous record low; it will be interesting to see if the hypothesized solar minimum being related to faster autumn recovery repeats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Ahhh, the burgeoning cryosphere. Hey John, you should check out the Arctic Sea Ice thread in the climate change forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 The biggest correlation seems to be October snow cover up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Where do we stand now (data provided by http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/) not good: Luckily I think there is still time for things to become more favorable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 Luckily I think there is still time for things to become more favorable... Plenty of time! I was trying to highlight the fact that although last season also showed low summer numbers, the recovery was fantastic. Too early to know. The other thing is, how low will it go - couple of stories to follow here. Will, the only study I read suggested it was the August - October ending values, which at least partially agrees with what you say. But more importantly, hearkens to the behavior (which of course includes rate of recovery). Personally I think this winter has a shot at being special anyways... but- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Plenty of time! I was trying to highlight the fact that although last season also showed low summer numbers, the recovery was fantastic. Too early to know. The other thing is, how low will it go - couple of stories to follow here. Will, the only study I read suggested it was the August - October ending values, which at least partially agrees with what you say. But more importantly, hearkens to the behavior (which of course includes rate of recovery). Personally I think this winter has a shot at being special anyways... but- It is just nice to begin thinking about winter... first frost is about 4 weeks away, first freeze 6 weeks, first flakes 8 weeks away. The first snowflakes up here is around 2 months away based on climo. BTV's climate page shows average first trace of snow is October 10th, earliest on record is September 20th in 1991 and 1956 (and that's down in the Champlain Valley, here in the mountains, its obviously earlier). Should be fun to watch the progression of the fall snow and ice pack... I can't wait for that first blast of sub 0C H85 air to frost the mountain tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Guys, August is Meteorologically still summer, and hasn't even started yet. Honestly, there's a lot of weather to embrace this time of the year if you just give it a chance. I realize that heat wave meteorology is not interesting to the majority, and that August severe is less frequent, but if you gave it a try, your ENTIRE year could be much more fulfilling. Turn on the snow zealot switch on October 15 and and rev it in November. Until then, summer is not behind us. Gardening is superb now, and we have a hurricane approaching the Bahamas in a lot of dependable guidance. Also, the SOI has gone easterly, and there is a teleconnector out there that shows a SE U.S. ridge is often time-lag correlated to the easterly phases of the SOI some 10 days later. That wouldn't even show up in the models at this point; less important teleconnector for us than the NAO, granted, but we've already had a record breaking heat episode so we know the season can do it. Christ, we have had heat waves in the first week or two of September. It's absurd to try and "spin" the summer as over - makes it difficult to want to contribute. It's bordering on some dis-associative disorder on some level to pretend and then actually believe it. HEY! What the hell is this??? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 We've been in a predominantly low index NAM for the last few months. That certainly hit the ice and snow cover hard. However, as I said in the winter thread, we'll soon be heading into positive state of the intra annual cycle, during which time ice and snow cover should make a huge rebound IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 The biggest correlation seems to be October snow cover up there. Yea, August is pretty irrelevant.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 HEY! What the hell is this??? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 split personality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 HEY! What the hell is this??? LOL. :popcorn: :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I've been usurped. I never figured anyone would care in early August.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 I've been usurped. I never figured anyone would care in early August.... Eh, I've always begun the assessment process in August. Usually there isn't much to discuss, but the last several years have shown near or exceeding record losses, so the period as we approach the perennial nader of land and sea snow/ice should have greater interest - else I would have waited until later on in September when the nader typically has passed and recovery begins. That said, the thread has two purpose: 1) ...Which Ray and gang completely missed the point, is to first monitor how low the ice gets and as to whether we meet or exceed the record low observed over the last 3 to 4 years. 2) ...After which, do we observer a similar RATE of recovery as last year, which showed astonishing - imo - Texas sized spatial areas flashing over in 24 hour intervals? Obviously the former of the two is paramount for the time being. Cryo-watch is an annual affair anyway - or really needs to be if anyone worth a salt in this business knows how critical that aspect is in the global system. Scott mentioned that there is a Climo section/forum - if it includes to remain nameless non New England posters I'll choose to defer, as for some reason, there is a kind of bias to take things emoitionally, or using the forum(s) for anonymity to execute petty social dysfunctionalities in general, that I dont' really want to be a part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 One can only hope for a recovery like last year, will keep my fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Eh, I've always begun the assessment process in August. Usually there isn't much to discuss, but the last several years have shown near or exceeding record losses, so the period as we approach the perennial nader of land and sea snow/ice should have greater interest - else I would have waited until later on in September when the nader typically has passed and recovery begins. That said, the thread has two purpose: 1) ...Which Ray and gang completely missed the point, is to first monitor how low the ice gets and as to whether we meet or exceed the record low observed over the last 3 to 4 years. 2) ...After which, do we observer a similar RATE of recovery as last year, which showed astonishing - imo - Texas sized spatial areas flashing over in 24 hour intervals? Obviously the former of the two is paramount for the time being. Cryo-watch is an annual affair anyway - or really needs to be if anyone worth a salt in this business knows how critical that aspect is in the global system. Scott mentioned that there is a Climo section/forum - if it includes to remain nameless non New England posters I'll choose to defer, as for some reason, there is a kind of bias to take things emoitionally, or using the forum(s) for anonymity to execute petty social dysfunctionalities in general, that I dont' really want to be a part. I only mentioned that because there is good stuff about arctic sea ice in there. I didn't mean to suggest this thread wasn't necessary. It's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Scott mentioned that there is a Climo section/forum - if it includes to remain nameless non New England posters I'll choose to defer, as for some reason, there is a kind of bias to take things emoitionally, or using the forum(s) for anonymity to execute petty social dysfunctionalities in general, that I dont' really want to be a part. There's a lot of that on the CliChg forum, though the arctic sea ice thread tends to be one of the more polite ones. It also has near-continual updates of things like the graphics you posted. IMO, worth lurking for data updates, while holding one's nose if the flame wars break out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 It is just nice to begin thinking about winter... first frost is about 4 weeks away, first freeze 6 weeks, first flakes 8 weeks away. The first snowflakes up here is around 2 months away based on climo. BTV's climate page shows average first trace of snow is October 10th, earliest on record is September 20th in 1991 and 1956 (and that's down in the Champlain Valley, here in the mountains, its obviously earlier). Should be fun to watch the progression of the fall snow and ice pack... I can't wait for that first blast of sub 0C H85 air to frost the mountain tops. I'm going to say ....september 19th on mansfield the first flake will fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Tip's ice graphic was last updated 7/27 and fortunately the ice lost exceptionally little extent from 7/27-8/3 but it has picked up again the last 2 days. The next 5 days I think will feature average to above average ice loss (although it is always hard to predict when there is no clear signal). Beyond D5 we have a divergence between the models with the Euro not giving any clear signal and the GFS showing an exceptionally unfavorable pattern that could cause us to drop back to 2007. I'm fairly pessimistic on ice extent this October, given the current extent, warm SSTs in the arctic, and less than favorable pattern the next 7+ days. A 2008-esque recovery by Nov 1 is probably the exception rather than the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 Tip's ice graphic was last updated 7/27 and fortunately the ice lost exceptionally little extent from 7/27-8/3 but it has picked up again the last 2 days. The next 5 days I think will feature average to above average ice loss (although it is always hard to predict when there is no clear signal). Beyond D5 we have a divergence between the models with the Euro not giving any clear signal and the GFS showing an exceptionally unfavorable pattern that could cause us to drop back to 2007. I'm fairly pessimistic on ice extent this October, given the current extent, warm SSTs in the arctic, and less than favorable pattern the next 7+ days. A 2008-esque recovery by Nov 1 is probably the exception rather than the rule. +AO would be better ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Will, the only study I read suggested it was the August - October ending values, which at least partially agrees with what you say. But more importantly, hearkens to the behavior (which of course includes rate of recovery). Personally I think this winter has a shot at being special anyways... but- Here's a couple that show the correlation between October snow cover anomalies in Siberia/Eurasia and the winter AO mode. http://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/52760/502014378.pdf?sequence=1 http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/Saito_Cohen03.pdf Both point to October snow cover being the dominant correlation of any month. But even that doesn't always work. The funny thing is that 2008 had a putrid October snow cover anomaly, but it had a negative AO in the winter and it was quite cold across the CONUS....but it did have the rapid refreeze on the ice that you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 Here's a couple that show the correlation between October snow cover anomalies in Siberia/Eurasia and the winter AO mode. http://dspace.mit.ed....pdf?sequence=1 http://web.mit.edu/j...ito_Cohen03.pdf Both point to October snow cover being the dominant correlation of any month. But even that doesn't always work. The funny thing is that 2008 had a putrid October snow cover anomaly, but it had a negative AO in the winter and it was quite cold across the CONUS....but it did have the rapid refreeze on the ice that you mentioned. It's funny you mentioned rapid refreeze in 2008 because that was when it first dawned on me ...or rather drove me to ask if the actual rate of recovery is telling on the lead AO mode. I just don't have enough data sources to even linearly make that correlation - the cryo data doesn't seem to be available without paying for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Eh, I've always begun the assessment process in August. Usually there isn't much to discuss, but the last several years have shown near or exceeding record losses, so the period as we approach the perennial nader of land and sea snow/ice should have greater interest - else I would have waited until later on in September when the nader typically has passed and recovery begins. That said, the thread has two purpose: 1) ...Which Ray and gang completely missed the point, is to first monitor how low the ice gets and as to whether we meet or exceed the record low observed over the last 3 to 4 years. 2) ...After which, do we observer a similar RATE of recovery as last year, which showed astonishing - imo - Texas sized spatial areas flashing over in 24 hour intervals? Obviously the former of the two is paramount for the time being. Cryo-watch is an annual affair anyway - or really needs to be if anyone worth a salt in this business knows how critical that aspect is in the global system. Scott mentioned that there is a Climo section/forum - if it includes to remain nameless non New England posters I'll choose to defer, as for some reason, there is a kind of bias to take things emoitionally, or using the forum(s) for anonymity to execute petty social dysfunctionalities in general, that I dont' really want to be a part. My memory of the past few years is that the ice nadir is sometime in the first 10-12 days of September. Iow....it's too early to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 My memory of the past few years is that the ice nadir is sometime in the first 10-12 days of September. Iow....it's too early to me. It is too early - but we should watch as the nadir approaches, being the point, due to the significance of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 but Eh, I've always begun the assessment process in August. Usually there isn't much to discuss, but the last several years have shown near or exceeding record losses, so the period as we approach the perennial nader of land and sea snow/ice should have greater interest - else I would have waited until later on in September when the nader typically has passed and recovery begins. That said, the thread has two purpose: 1) ...Which Ray and gang completely missed the point, is to first monitor how low the ice gets and as to whether we meet or exceed the record low observed over the last 3 to 4 years. 2) ...After which, do we observer a similar RATE of recovery as last year, which showed astonishing - imo - Texas sized spatial areas flashing over in 24 hour intervals? Obviously the former of the two is paramount for the time being. Cryo-watch is an annual affair anyway - or really needs to be if anyone worth a salt in this business knows how critical that aspect is in the global system. Scott mentioned that there is a Climo section/forum - if it includes to remain nameless non New England posters I'll choose to defer, as for some reason, there is a kind of bias to take things emoitionally, or using the forum(s) for anonymity to execute petty social dysfunctionalities in general, that I dont' really want to be a part. I didn't miss anything....I don't really care because the cryosphere is very malleable and can do an about face in short oder. I understand that it's cool to watch, but it's just not something I ever get too worked up over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 FYI the ice is going to get absolutely hammered over the next 10 days. The models have come into agreement on an intense +DA pattern (high pressure NA side low pressure Eurasian side creating south winds along the russian coast). Will keep pace with or even gain on 2007 which was also seeing rapid loss at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 FYI the ice is going to get absolutely hammered over the next 10 days. The models have come into agreement on an intense +DA pattern (high pressure NA side low pressure Eurasian side creating south winds along the russian coast). Will keep pace with or even gain on 2007 which was also seeing rapid loss at this time. And 73" later my stance that there is no need to sweat the cryosphere during the summer was affirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Here is October Eurasian snow cover anomalies since 1967: You can see how the longer term has followed the NAO decadal cycle relatively closely...while at the same time there's several outlier years where the correlation did not work...most recently in 2008 and 2006 where the October anomaly gave the opposite signal of reality that verified in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 The overall pattern still reminds me of last year over in Europe/Asia. Cold in England with ridging near Moscow..more or less. I wonder of we see the pattern rapidly build back the snowcover like it did last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 FYI the ice is going to get absolutely hammered over the next 10 days. The models have come into agreement on an intense +DA pattern (high pressure NA side low pressure Eurasian side creating south winds along the russian coast). Will keep pace with or even gain on 2007 which was also seeing rapid loss at this time. Wrong...12z Euro says no dice, ridge over the Laptev, not the Beaufort. This is what skier calls a terrible pattern for the ice, almost comical...huge ULL settling into the Beaufort with cool 850s covering much of the ice pack: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.