Are winter forecasts progressing as expected?

[Whacker77]

I posted sporadically on easternusweather since 2004 and I just found the new board today. This may be a topic which has been hashed over, but how do we stand with the bulk of the winter forecasts? Are they progressing as expected? It seems most forecasters are discussing a cold Decemeber in the east which then flips strongly to warm for January and February. I know DT has the blowtorch turned on for this winter, but his forecast from last year wasn't so great. JB seems to think Decemeber is cold but the pattern flips by the end of the month.

I can't claim 1/10 the knowledge most have on weather here, but I have seen a few differences listed as to why this la nina is a bit different. One, we have, or have had, a split flow in the Pacific. Two, the la nina appears to have peaked and begun to drop. Three, the hurricane season was non-existant in terms of land falls. Do any of these differences throw cold water on the idea of a flip to warm, or is the flip to warm just too strong?

[Animal]

I posted sporadically on easternusweather since 2004 and I just found the new board today. This may be a topic which has been hashed over, but how do we stand with the bulk of the winter forecasts? Are they progressing as expected? It seems most forecasters are discussing a cold Decemeber in the east which then flips strongly to warm for January and February. I know DT has the blowtorch turned on for this winter, but his forecast from last year wasn't so great. JB seems to think Decemeber is cold but the pattern flips by the end of the month.

I can't claim 1/10 the knowledge most have on weather here, but I have seen a few differences listed as to why this la nina is a bit different. One, we have, or have had, a split flow in the Pacific. Two, the la nina appears to have peaked and begun to drop. Three, the hurricane season was non-existant. Do any of these differences throw cold water on the idea of a flip to warm, or is the flip to warm just too strong?

Don't know where you are located, but I checked wxrisk.com web site yesterday and did not read or see anything about a blowtorch winter in his final winter forecast released on December 1st 2010

[Whacker77]

Well, DT was just talking today on stormvista that la nina looks to be diminishing. As for blowtorch, that's my word, but DT does have much of the country in either above normal or much above normal in December and February. Just look at his monthly graphics for winter temperatures. Now, his map for temperatures in DJF tell a different story as a hole.

[Cory]

The Atlantic hurricane season was the 3rd busiest on record.

[Whacker77]

The Atlantic hurricane season was the 3rd busiest on record.

Adjusted initial comment to say landfalls were almost non-existant. There was lots of recurving back out to sea.

[buckeye]

Huh? The weeklies have dropped from -1.3C to -1.6C in just the past two weeks... and we currently have anomalies as cold as -3.5C that have surfaced... along with a VERY large area of -2.0 to -2.5C and below across the entire stretch.

For a non-existent hurricane season, we also had 19 named storms, 10 of those hurricanes... and five of those major hurricanes.

You should listen to DT's lates "this week in weather". He shows some evidence that apparently the nina may be weakening which COULD put the january/february mild forecasts in jeopardy.