18z Model Discussion

[atownwxwatcher]

18 Z GFS ensemble means

[CooL]

Keeping everyone level-headed.

i can try, but unfortunately, i will not succeed

[Sundog]

The individual members will tell the tale. At this range looking at the mean doesn't tell you much as a few outliers can skew the whole thing.

[Chris L]

A very distinct possibility. It's been doing this for a week plus now.

IF it is, then that can very well explain why the surface low is cutting inland.... I seen the GFS, it has a classic block and real time data also shows that.

[opengeo]

Well I wouldn't think it would be so amplified as the Euro suggests, it is a La Nina, the blocking is lackluster for the storm, so I would favor a more progressive pattern which would allow the storm to get further east.

Does this make sense to anyone?

[tombo82685]

IF it is, then that can very well explain why the surface low is cutting inland.... I seen the GFS, it has a classic block and real time data also shows that.

its going to be interesting. I think tony posted a composite on another site how the gfs and euro on top of each other are verifying with the heights and postions. The euro is actually verifying better with the block

[tombo82685]

Does this make sense to anyone?

lol, i get what hes saying though, hes just mixed up a little. i mean you can still get a cutter in a blocked pattern but it can only come so far north before transferring

[CTWeatherFreak]

Also by Silvio Dante on the Sopranos.......

>>Classic Line by George Costanza!<<

Francis Ford Coppola is taking umbrage!

[tombo82685]

hr 174

[tombo82685]

hr 180

[tombo82685]

still looks like a lot of the ens are going with inland track

[Manny]

still looks like a lot of the ens are going with inland track

Yeah, similar to previous ens. At least many of them are not as west as the Euro.

[tombo82685]

in looking at this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html

do anyone of you see what we need or dont want to get this to come up the coast instead of cut? I guess we should be looking at 500mb hgts to

[NEG NAO]

Yeah, similar to previous ens. At least many of them are not as west as the Euro.

Apparently the satellite failure also affected the 12z and 18z models limiting the data being given to them according to reports on the accuweather forums - so they are junk

[Chris L]

in looking at this http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html

do anyone of you see what we need or dont want to get this to come up the coast instead of cut? I guess we should be looking at 500mb hgts to

Yes 500 mb will tell us how exactly the trough is posititve, neutral, negative...

[Chris L]

Apparently the satellite failure also affected the 12z and 18z models limiting the data being given to them according to reports on the accuweather forums - so they are junk

AccuWeather Forums? LOL.

[tombo82685]

Yes 500 mb will tell us how exactly the trough is posititve, neutral, negative...

for some reason ewall wont let it go over a hover loop.

[earthlight]

[Chris L]

What hurts are three significant players: 1. Lack of true PNA ridge... 2. NAO possibly breaking down? (but I doubt this)

and: the EPO factor..... possibly overlooked.

[tombo82685]

What hurts are three significant players: 1. Lack of true PNA ridge... 2. NAO possibly breaking down? (but I doubt this)

and: the EPO factor..... possibly overlooked.

i think the biggest hurt is the pna. with no ridge out west it allows for a southeast ridge to pop.

[earthlight]

i think the biggest hurt is the pna. with no ridge out west it allows for a southeast ridge to pop.

The EPO and transient block on the Euro are the biggest factors. A big PNA ridge in this set up would amplify the shortwave too far west, if you ask me.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/f150.gif

[tombo82685]

in looking at the ens none of them really have a good -nao

[tombo82685]

The EPO and transient block on the Euro are the biggest factors. A big PNA ridge in this set up would amplify the shortwave too far west, if you ask me.

http://www.meteo.psu...VN_18z/f150.gif

then why do we always want a pos pna then? Wouldnt that always be the case? It would carve out a big trof over the central states then on the rebound on the east coast. I mean i guess it would all come down to where the ridge axis is actually.

[Sundog]

then why do we always want a pos pna then? Wouldnt that always be the case? It would carve out a big trof over the central states then on the rebound on the east coast. I mean i guess it would all come down to where the ridge axis is actually.

You want a positive PNA to get the storm to come up the coast but you want a decent block and 50/50 low to keep it from cutting too close or to the west of us.

[tombo82685]

You want a positive PNA to get the storm to come up the coast but you want a decent block and 50/50 low to keep it from cutting too close or to the west of us.

wouldn't a zonal flow work as well with a block over the top?

[SnowGoose69]

The EPO and transient block on the Euro are the biggest factors. A big PNA ridge in this set up would amplify the shortwave too far west, if you ask me.

http://www.meteo.psu...VN_18z/f150.gif

It depends where the ridge is setup, if the ridge is setup too far west with a good portion of it centered off the West Coast then yes that would happen....in this case I am still thinking the storm either go west or out to sea....its hard to ignore the out to sea scenario since we've had trouble sustaining any sort of western ridge so far for long periods...if the ridge does indeed flatten back out this storm is going out to sea...if not its going west...unless the NAO block remains further west.

[tmagan]

Especially this early in the cool season, without the impressive Arctic air, and the warm ocean temps., the track is extremely vital, off by a little, and it is a day late and a dollar short.

[Analog96]

Apparently the satellite failure also affected the 12z and 18z models limiting the data being given to them according to reports on the accuweather forums - so they are junk

Do you really think current satellite data has any bearing on something 180+ hours out?

[Analog96]

Especially this early in the cool season, without the impressive Arctic air, and the warm ocean temps., the track is extremely vital, off by a little, and it is a day late and a dollar short.

Ocean temps fine.. but without Arctic air?

[SnoSki14]

It's another one of those December myths:

1. Ocean is too warm.

2. No arctic air in place.

Although the 1st one can play a role for the immediate coast but usually if the storm track is good and there is just enough cold air in place, then you'll get snow.