MJO812 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Lets see if the GFS continues with a strong coastal storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 lets hope it does not trend toward the euro, or many people will lose hope and jump ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 lets hope it does not trend toward the euro, or many people will lose hope and jump ship. Fairly ridiculous for a 180 hour forecast, wouldn't you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Fairly ridiculous for a 180 hour forecast, wouldn't you say? absolutely...but you dont think people would do it anyway? especially after last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 absolutely...but you dont think people would do it anyway? especially after last year One would think people would learn, especially after debacles such as February 2007, January 2008, and December 2009 where the guidance was off by hundreds of miles within 72 hours of the event. The only thing these model runs are useful for is pattern progression, if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 One would think people would learn, especially after debacles such as February 2007, January 2008, and December 2009 where the guidance was off by hundreds of miles within 72 hours of the event. esp the one in 08 or 07 with the becs going into ohio valley....we all know what happened there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 esp the one in 08 or 07 with the becs going into ohio valley....we all know what happened there... How about February 2007? A significant, borderline historical snowstorm was being advertised by most guidance for the Mid Atlantic as close as 72 hours away from the event. It was at that point that things went haywire. January 2008, supposed to be a coastal bomb and evaporational cooling event. As near as 60 hours prior to the event, the NAM and GFS both gave me upwards of 12" of snow. Heavy snow warnings were issued. I had light drizzle and flurries with a half an inch of slop. December 2009 worked the other way, but the GFS was showing a high chance of cirrus and nothing more 72 hours before the event, which wound up giving me a foot of snow. These things can change so dramatically, and the patterns are so fragile, that the guidance at this range can only be defined as just that. Guidance. This forum has improved dramatically with it's analysis and attitude towards these things, though, I have to say. Hopefully this pattern can deliver.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 esp the one in 08 or 07 with the becs going into ohio valley....we all know what happened there... Hahaha, man I remember that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 How about February 2007? A significant, borderline historical snowstorm was being advertised by most guidance for the Mid Atlantic as close as 72 hours away from the event. It was at that point that things went haywire. January 2008, supposed to be a coastal bomb and evaporational cooling event. As near as 60 hours prior to the event, the NAM and GFS both gave me upwards of 12" of snow. Heavy snow warnings were issued. I had light drizzle and flurries with a half an inch of slop. December 2009 worked the other way, but the GFS was showing a high chance of cirrus and nothing more 72 hours before the event, which wound up giving me a foot of snow. These things can change so dramatically, and the patterns are so fragile, that the guidance at this range can only be defined as just that. Guidance. This forum has improved dramatically with it's analysis and attitude towards these things, though, I have to say. Hopefully this pattern can deliver.. February 2007 was forecasted to be a blizzard 3 days before the storm. January 2008 was just horrible. What a big bust. I didn't even see a flake and we were predicted to get 6-12 inches. The storm bombed out too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Hahaha, man I remember that one. philly did really well they go into some mesoscale convective band and dropped over 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 18z DGEX is a miss to the south http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex850mbTSLPp06180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Fairly ridiculous for a 180 hour forecast, wouldn't you say? Of course! But you know it will happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 February 2007 was forecasted to be a blizzard 3 days before the storm. January 2008 was just horrible. What a big bust. I didn't even see a flake and we were predicted to get 6-12 inches. The storm bombed out too late. LOL @ JAN 2008. Everyone who says I have a snowy bias forgets my post on the boards that afternoon, when I called for 1-2" at most. HOW would it snow here when it was above freezing in parts of VERMONT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 How about February 2007? A significant, borderline historical snowstorm was being advertised by most guidance for the Mid Atlantic as close as 72 hours away from the event. It was at that point that things went haywire. January 2008, supposed to be a coastal bomb and evaporational cooling event. As near as 60 hours prior to the event, the NAM and GFS both gave me upwards of 12" of snow. Heavy snow warnings were issued. I had light drizzle and flurries with a half an inch of slop. December 2009 worked the other way, but the GFS was showing a high chance of cirrus and nothing more 72 hours before the event, which wound up giving me a foot of snow. These things can change so dramatically, and the patterns are so fragile, that the guidance at this range can only be defined as just that. Guidance. This forum has improved dramatically with it's analysis and attitude towards these things, though, I have to say. Hopefully this pattern can deliver.. At least Feb 2007 stayed frozen. Could have been worse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 LOL @ JAN 2008. Everyone who says I have a snowy bias forgets my post on the boards that afternoon, when I called for 1-2" at most. HOW would it snow here when it was above freezing in parts of VERMONT? Everyone was expecting the storm to bomb out just south of LI. It ended up bombing out in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 18z DGEX is a miss to the south http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06180.gif Best thing I've seen all day. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Best thing I've seen all day. Lol. We have a buffet of models. South,Apps runner, GLC,Coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 February 2007: GFS or NAM ( I can't check Eastern is down forever) had NYC area getting 2" QPF equally about 2 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 looking at the gfs at hr 90 to hr 96 on the 12z gfs, so far the clipper is stronger and further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Everyone was expecting the storm to bomb out just south of LI. It ended up bombing out in SNE. The thing is: even if that storm DID bomb out, it had very little chance to cool the column THAT much. There just wasn't any cold air to tap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 February 2007: GFS or NAM (Eastern is down forever) had NYC area getting 2" QPF equally about 2 feet of snow. The media was also hyping this storm. They were saying " get ready for a big blizzard in the area ". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 February 2007: GFS or NAM ( I can't check Eastern is down forever) had NYC area getting 2" QPF equally about 2 feet of snow. Probably the NAM, considering its wet bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The media was also hyping this storm. They were saying " get ready for a big blizzard in the area ". I still consider that less of a bust than Jan 2008, because at least we did get a fairly high-impact frozen event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 We have a buffet of models. South,Apps runner, GLC,Coastal Yup, it's definitely met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 I still consider that less of a bust than Jan 2008, because at least we did get a fairly high-impact frozen event. Same here. Jan 2008 was a big bust. The models looked great in the morning. Yup, it's definitely met winter. It feels like January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 SE Ridge at 84hrs is stronger than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I still consider that less of a bust than Jan 2008, because at least we did get a fairly high-impact frozen event. and it stayed below freezing throughout the event. That storm and St Pattys Day storm made that an ok winter. The Tax Day storm-- wish that had occurred earlier so we could have had three major frozen events that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 First clipper is Stronger and Further north running into a stronger HP S/E of there, I think the clipper may go north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 and it stayed below freezing throughout the event. That storm and St Pattys Day storm made that an ok winter. The Tax Day storm-- wish that had occurred earlier so we could have had three major frozen events that winter. "THE YEAR OF SLEET" That was the year I learned how to forecast sleet to water ratios, 3:1 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 and it stayed below freezing throughout the event. That storm and St Pattys Day storm made that an ok winter. The Tax Day storm-- wish that had occurred earlier so we could have had three major frozen events that winter. Never in my life I saw sleet with temps in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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