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August 4th, 2008 Derecho


Thundersnow12

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taken from the orginal thread on Eastern

DVN afternoon AFD

LOOKING AT UPSTREAM FEATURES AND SOME CONCEPTUAL

TOOLS...UNFORTUNATELY FEEL THE NAM MAY BE MORE ON TRACK WITH THE

SCENARIO THAT MAY UNFOLD. THINK SCTRD POST FRONTAL CONVECTION SEEN

NOW ON REGIONAL 88D LOOPS FROM SOUTHWEST IA THROUGH SOUTHWEST WI...

ALONG WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AND APPROACHING UPPER WAVE OUT OF SD WILL

ERODE WEST-NORTHWEST FLANK OF STRONG CAP END IGNITE STORMS THAT

WILL QUICKLY BECOME SFC BASED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IA. AS THE

STORMS GOBBLE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CAPE/POTENTIAL ENERGY THAT HAS BUILT

UP ALL AFTERNOON...DEVELOPMENT COULD BE EXPLOSIVE AND SUPERCELLULAR

IN NATURE. EXPECT MOST OF THIS DEVELOPMENT JUST UPSTREAM...BUT WILL

HAVE TO WATCH FOR EVENING INITIATION IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE

DVN CWA AS WELL. WITH EXTENT OF HIGH CAPES IN PLACE...INCOMING

SHEAR PROFILES AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALL SUPPORT STORMS

DEVELOPING INTO BOWING SEGMENTS OR EVEN A DERECHO TYPE SYSTEM AS

THEY PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG FLOW VECTORS...WHICH WOULD IMPACT

MUCH OF THE DVN CWA BY MID EVENING AND WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND REMAINS THE DOMINANT THREAT...WITH

POTENTIAL OF 70+ MPH VALUES OR EVEN 80+ MPH IN THE CRUTCH OF THE

BOWS. IF SOMETHING CAN TAKE OFF AND PROPAGATE ALONG THE MAIN WARM

FRONT IF IT LINGERS IN THE NORTHERN CWA...EXTENT OF HIGH CAPE

SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF A RATHER STRONG TORNADO IN

ENHANCED SHEAR FIELDS. MANY VARIABLES TO PLAY OUT AND STILL SOME

QUESTIONS FOR MORE OF A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST...BUT WILL EXPAND

LIKELY POPS SOME SOUTHWARD AND MAINTAIN SVR WORDING WITH DAMAGING

WINDS FOR MOST OR ALL THE DVN CWA TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

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The Griffith tornado started just east of my cousin's house.

Same with my mom's cousin. They live in the subdivision on the other side of Cline Ave. from the strip mall that was partially totaled.

The thing I will remember most about that event (other than the anomalously destructive Griffith tornado) was that it is probably the only wind event I can recall that featured an audible roar a couple minutes prior to its arrival (from a combo of the wind and the still-unmatched and unprecedented electrical activity that it featured).

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This event produced one of the best light shows I have seen.

I was under a tornado warning for a time, with a confirmed EF-1 about 8 miles southeast of here in Bloomingdale.

The wind wasn't too bad, as we only gusted up around 55mph with little in the way of tree damage. Power ended up being out for about 3 days.

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Same with my mom's cousin. They live in the subdivision on the other side of Cline Ave. from the strip mall that was partially totaled.

The thing I will remember most about that event (other than the anomalously destructive Griffith tornado) was that it is probably the only wind event I can recall that featured an audible roar a couple minutes prior to its arrival (from a combo of the wind and the still-unmatched and unprecedented electrical activity that it featured).

Yeah I heard about the light show. I think Skilling commented that one of his longtime colleagues who had lived in the area for decades thought it was best lightning display he had ever seen.

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I know I've said it before, but this was my first official day on the job in the NWS (at DVN of course). I remember I was called back in during the evening shift just to see what severe weather ops were like. The rest of it was kind of a blur, I wasn't sure I'd ever be good enough to do that kind of job. Needless to say, I was ready for radar training to begin the next month.

I also distinctly remember that heading out for the evening balloon launch we hit 88/80 at one point. It was a lot for a kid from the Northeast to take in.

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