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Major TC's that form deep in Atlantic rarely make a direct EC hit


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Going back to 1980 I could only find 3 storms that formed deep out in the Atlantic Ocean and hit the East Coast without hitting Florida first.

1985 Gloria

1989 Hugo

2003 Isabel

Was just curious so I did a quick look up please add any that I missed.

Bonnie 1998

Fran 1996

Floyd 1999

I am sure there are quite a few more but those are three right off the top of my head.

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Going back to 1980 I could only find 3 storms that formed deep out in the Atlantic Ocean and hit the East Coast without hitting Florida first.

1985 Gloria

1989 Hugo

2003 Isabel

Was just curious so I did a quick look up please add any that I missed.

Not to be contrarian but some points of caution here:

1) your sample set is way way inadequate and too small. Gloria was a long track Cape V. system that did the fairly classic Long Island express route. 1938... Hazel, Donna...there are a lot there if the sample size expands from 30 years to 100 or longer.

2) this debate's flown several times a season since 1900 ... hehe. Seriously though, it's a numbers game. There is nothing in particular in why that is the case, other than exposure It takes quite an atmospheric feat of anomalies, in succession, to allow a TC to move nearly 4,000 miles without perturbing the system and drawing the cylone polarward, or interferring with it developmentally to begin with. The fact that any pull it off is pretty much miracle when you think of all the ways the atmosphere can fumble around and mess things up.

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Going back to 1980 I could only find 3 storms that formed deep out in the Atlantic Ocean and hit the East Coast without hitting Florida first.

1985 Gloria

1989 Hugo

2003 Isabel

Was just curious so I did a quick look up please add any that I missed.

lol

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1) Chris of 1988 qualifies as it barely missed FL. That makes eight in 31 years or one about every four years.

2) The chances of any one MDR Atlantic storm later hitting ANY part of the U.S. is about 20%.

- I just checked and there were also eight during the 30 year period 1950-1979 or about one every four years. There were only two during 1956-79!!

- Even when giving some leeway for storms that could have easily formed in the MDR because of a lack of satellites but officially didn't count that way, I count only six for 1920-49 but did count as many as 13 for 1890-1919 (again with some leeway).

- There were three in both 1955 and 1893!

- So, for the last four 30 year periods, I count eight, eight, six, and 13, respectively..or a longterm average of nine per 30 years for storms that formed in the MDR and later hit the U.S. east coast as a TS+ without first hitting FL. So, the eight for the 31 years of 1980-2010 isn't that far off.

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Going back to 1980 I could only find 3 storms that formed deep out in the Atlantic Ocean and hit the East Coast without hitting Florida first.

1985 Gloria

1989 Hugo

2003 Isabel

Was just curious so I did a quick look up please add any that I missed.

My first question would be: what do you mean by forming deep in the Atlantic? Like, forming S/E of specific latitude/longitude points?

And what storms are you including? Ones that make landfalls in the USA as majors?

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horrible graphics. Present Day shows no cheese grater of any kind where we all know it is. On par with your sports posts though .... have to give you that arrowheadsmiley.png

Did you pull these winners from a bubble gum machine, cracker jack box, etc?

Lol..Relax, i dont want to intimidate you now ;)

its just an example, mainly to show where the continents were millions of years ago. Its interesting to think about

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Even more odd in the second pic is GA having a higher chance of impact from a TC than NC. Seems unlikely to me. GA gets hurricane force winds every 20-25 years. Outer banks every other year it seems.

that isn't what that map shows...a storm just off the coast of GA has a better chance of hitting the US than a storm just off of NC.

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My first question would be: what do you mean by forming deep in the Atlantic? Like, forming S/E of specific latitude/longitude points?

And what storms are you including? Ones that make landfalls in the USA as majors?

Yes Josh, at least 35 w and only Majors.. I just did a quick glance using Unisys Hurricane data. Your hear a lot of complaining about lack of EC hits when they really are just a rarity IMHO

I should of clarified where at in the Atlantic bro. I modified the topic, I just figured common sense would prevail from the storms I highlighted but I accommodated the slow bananas of the group to clear up any confusion.

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