bluewave Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 August is starting off with a big drop in the NAO. Since the Atlantic entered the warm phase back in 1995, there have been several years when the NAO dropped below -1.5 between August 1-15. 8-7-99...-1.572 8-11-04..-1.928 8-14-06..-2.349 8-2-08...-2.553 Here is the 500 mb composite anomaly from the 8/1-8/15 negative NAO dates in 1999,2004,2006,and 2008 below -1.5: The storms that affected our area during these years: 1999...Dennis 1999...Floyd 2004...Frances 2004...Jeanne 2006...Ernesto 2008...Hanna We'll have to watch the pattern through ASO to see if we start to get 500 mb heights building over SE Canada down to the Northeast and adjacent coastal waters.During those years,there were tropical cyclones in the pipeline at the same time the 500 mb heights were building.An upper ridge in this position blocks recurvature of tropical cyclones out to sea.Here is the East Coast landfall composite for those dates: Surface high pressure systems building to 1024 mb or higher near the Northeast often preceded the favorable landfall pattern by days to weeks in advance. 8/16/99 8/25/04 8/6/06 8/20/08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Thanks Bluewave. I always look forward to your analysis! Do you think we have a decent chance of our region being directly impacted by at least onetropical cyclone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 Thanks Bluewave. I always look forward to your analysis! Do you think we have a decent chance of our region being directly impacted by at least onetropical cyclone? Thanks.First we'll have to see if the upper ridge builds near the Northeast later this month or in September. Specific tracks and actual development are always a shorter term affair.Small differences in the track during the lifecycle of a storm make a big difference between a where it will directly impact the coast or curve out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2011 Author Share Posted August 10, 2011 The models are finally beginning to indicate a rise in the NAO moving toward the second half of this month like we saw in earlier years from the original post.At the same time,the models are hinting at heights over SE Canada building further south and west than we have see so far this month.We'll watch in the coming weeks to see if heights build like they did in some the years from the first post.I am using 8/15/-8/31,1999 and 2008 as examples as to what happened to the pattern during second half of August NAO rise. 8/15/-8/31 1999 8/15-8-31 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Would be a very good sign for snow loverS to see the NAO rise and stay positive through October and then to trend back negative for the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Would be a very good sign for snow lover to see the NAO rise and stay positive through October and then to trend back negative for the winter months. Yep, that's what we should be hoping for at this point. Great research bluewave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Yep, that's what we should be hoping for at this point. Great research bluewave. Instead of WOTY, there should be research of the year, bluewave would be at the top! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2011 Author Share Posted August 10, 2011 Yep, that's what we should be hoping for at this point. Great research bluewave. Instead of WOTY, there should be research of the year, bluewave would be at the top! Thanks for the kind words.It will be interesting to watch the pattern going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Yep, that's what we should be hoping for at this point. Great research bluewave. It has been the pattern the last two winters, so all things being equal, it can't hurt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Just a friendly bump for what seems, at this point, to be looking like a tremendous call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Just a friendly bump for what seems, at this point, to be looking like a tremendous call. Thanks.It's interesting how these types of analogs can repeat over time with variations that determine the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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