12/9-12/10 clipper before cutter?

[michsnowfreak]

So far, so good on the clipper. It has been on the models for a week, now less than 3 days til its here. Hope it keeps the course, and we can break out of this light dustings and trace funk lol

[snowstormcanuck]

Pretty decent consistency with the models on this one. Looks like a solid 1-3" type event. With the sfc low going so far north, everybody's likely to get into the warm sector eventually, so that'll prevent any 3"+ amounts from becoming pervasive.

[AppsRunner]

I'll take whatever I can get from this. 1" sounds fine

[Powerball]

12z NAM BUFKIT shows 3-4" with this clipper here.

[Stevo6899]

NAM radar has a good 10 hours of snow. Of course virga might take up 2 hours but its a decent storm.

[turtlehurricane]

First signs of this system are already here!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/lrgnamsfcwbg.gif

Very noticeable pressure trough in British Colombia, from column stretching in the lee side of the Rockies. It's just gonna get bigger and bigger from here. I think it'll be a nice clipper, perhaps more than expected if the Gulf can open up a little earlier than projected.

[A-L-E-K]

12z NAM coming in pretty robust across wisconsin with the clipper.

[Stevo6899]

12z NAM coming in pretty robust across wisconsin with the clipper.

Then it does its typical weakening process before it gets to SE MI. I am starting to think the great lakes kill storms somehow, You would think it would be the other way since low pressures usually form or become stronger over water.

[michsnowfreak]

Then it does its typical weakening process before it gets to SE MI. I am starting to think the great lakes kill storms somehow, You would think it would be the other way since low pressures usually form or become stronger over water.

Actually, that is not typical. Often times clippers strengthen once they cross the Lake MI because of lake enhancement, so its quite common for Detroit to do better with a clipper than Milwaukee. However, this clipper wont strengthen as it crosses lake MI because it is basically WAA snow ahead of a warm front, instead of northwest winds bringing cold air over the lake waters to give enhancement. Nevertheless, the NAM usually has too thin a swath of strongest qpf on a clipper, so while its a little discouraging to see what it does here, all the other models have been very consistent. Id say a 1-2" call is good.

[BowMeHunter]

Now that the Super Model left me with blue balls its time to see if this cute clipper can relieve my pain. She's starting to look a little wetter down south.

[michsnowfreak]

Temps will be in the 20s while snow is falling, wondering what ratios will be? Speficic humidities look great but PWATS wont even reach a half inch per DTX. I forget what all that means. QPF for here looks to be around 0.15".

[turtlehurricane]

Clipper is starting to exert its influence on southern WI, 'warm' SE flow is developing. Up to 6 °F from a low of 3 °F.

[A-L-E-K]

I'm calling for 1/4" IMBY

[Chicago WX]

I'm calling for 1/4" IMBY

12z NAM says quadruple that amount.

[A-L-E-K]

12z NAM says quadrupole that amount.

I considered going with an inch, but decided to play it conservative.

[Chicago WX]

I considered going with an inch, but decided to play it conservative.

Yeah no reason to crazy with this one. I'll split the difference and go with a call of 0.6" for YBY.

[A-L-E-K]

Yeah no reason to crazy with this one. I'll split the difference and go with a call of 0.6" for YBY.

Returns are look pretty robust.

[Chicago Storm]

I'm calling for 1/4" IMBY

Dusting at best.

[A-L-E-K]

Dusting at best.

you're on.

I see a mini waa wing and some 35 dvz returns in southern minny, looks like a solid prospect for >dusting.

[A-L-E-K]

LOT

INTENSITY...SNOWFALL MAY BE RATHER HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL

REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE OR LESS. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF ONE

TO TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

[goknights]

Snowing hard here in se minn

[Thundersnow12]

you're on.

I see a mini waa wing and some 35 dvz returns in southern minny, looks like a solid prospect for >dusting.

ya actually looks like an area of frontogenesis and enhanced snow banding due to the snowpack on the ground.

[Thundersnow12]

[A-L-E-K]

I'm having a hard time buying that HRRR. Either way a quick radar glance tells you we'll see a quick period of accumulating snow.

[Thundersnow12]

I'm having a hard time buying that HRRR. Either way a quick radar glance tells you we'll see a quick period of accumulating snow.

newest run showing the same thing.

[Moneyman]

Calling for 3-4 inches here, although I have questions about that considering the radar looks meh. Just a quick 2-3 hour shot of accumlating snow.

[Chicago Storm]

I'm having a hard time buying that HRRR. Either way a quick radar glance tells you we'll see a quick period of accumulating snow.

It shows 2-3"...The chances of that happening are about the same as the Cubs winning the World Series next season.

[Thundersnow12]

It shows 2-3"...The chances of that happening are about the same as the Cubs winning the World Series next season.

easy there..

[A-L-E-K]

newest run showing the same thing.

It really strengthens a nice band of SN as it moves through the Chicago area. Chistorm about to bust.

[A-L-E-K]

It shows 2-3"...The chances of that happening are about the same as the Cubs winning the World Series next season.

An inch certainly looks possible based on upstream radar returns alone and most models (hrrr excluded) had it becoming more organized into the evening.