12/9-12/10 clipper before cutter?

[Thundersnow12]

ARX

BOTH THE 05.00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A

SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY

NIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN

CONSISTENT LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AND THUS CONFIDENCE HIGHER FOR A

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND PROBABILITIES WERE RAISED ON THURSDAY.

AT THIS POINT...PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW AND THIS

WILL BE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION.

MKX

THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON COMBINED

ISENTROPIC AND VORTICITY/WAVE DRIVEN SNOWFALL. ECMWF MORE ROBUST ON

QPF THAN GFS AND HAVE SHIFTED THE QPF AXIS FURTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE

CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY IN A MEASURABLE EVENT...WILL GO WITH HIGH

END CHANCE POPS...BUT THIS FAR OUT CERTAINLY DETAILS TO STILL WORK

OUT. ECMWF NUDGES THE 850 0C LINE CLOSE TO THE WI/IL BORDER AROUND

18Z BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

12z GFS

[csnavywx]

Looks like a quick hitting burst of WAA snows for most people. These waves can supply some surprises, especially when everybody's focus is shifted to (what looks like) a the big storm later in the week.

[Chicago WX]

12z Euro pretty far north with this one. Decent snows for MN and WI, and getting into MI. Looks like a snow melter here with temps safely above freezing and a little rain.

[mnweather]

I look to get some snow outta this one. How much? Maybe 2-4" at least.

[A-L-E-K]

Love the thread title and love the active pattern.

[cyclone77]

The GEM slams much of Iowa into northern Illinois with 3-5" with this thing if I read it correctly. As you guys mentioned, the Euro is way north with the surface low, but thermal profiles looks somewhat similar. GFS seems sort of like a compromise. With the new snowfield in place the baroclinic boundary may help gives this thing some vigor.

[csnavywx]

The GEM slams much of Iowa into northern Illinois with 3-5" with this thing if I read it correctly. As you guys mentioned, the Euro is way north with the surface low, but thermal profiles looks somewhat similar. GFS seems sort of like a compromise. With the new snowfield in place the baroclinic boundary may help gives this thing some vigor.

There's a fairly broad area of moderate-strong WAA and Isentropic lift aloft with the clipper on the front side, which does line up with some precip breaking out over this area. Of course, if your 900-800mb layer gets above zero, then it'll mix. The Euro suggests that the system is quick enough that most locales will not have enough time to warm enough to rain before dryslotting and the CF coming through. If you're further south than say... Cent IL-Cent IN, then sure, rain may very well be in the cards for a little while.

Just don't expect much in the way of accums. This system is ripping east fast on all the solutions.

[AppsRunner]

Euro suggests maybe a 1-4" event for Southern Michigan, and Northern IN/OH.

[Thundersnow12]

There's a fairly broad area of moderate-strong WAA and Isentropic lift aloft with the clipper on the front side, which does line up with some precip breaking out over this area. Of course, if your 900-800mb layer gets above zero, then it'll mix. The Euro suggests that the system is quick enough that most locales will not have enough time to warm enough to rain before dryslotting and the CF coming through. If you're further south than say... Cent IL-Cent IN, then sure, rain may very well be in the cards for a little while.

Just don't expect much in the way of accums. This system is ripping east fast on all the solutions.

and it will be interesting to see if and how much it affects the big boy afterwards.

[BowMeHunter]

I look to get some snow outta this one. How much? Maybe 2-4" at least.

Yup... On the driveway only tho.

[Thundersnow12]

LOT

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP OUTSIDE OF LAKE SNOW BELT ARRIVES THURSDAY.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING LARGE

SCALE UPPER TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST...AND BRINGING ANOTHER DIGGING

SHORT WAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED

SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS MN/WI...NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS

KEEPS GREATER PRECIP THREAT TO THE NORTH...AND ALSO INTRODUCES THE

POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS INDICATED BY

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES. HAVE MENTIONED RAIN/SNOW CHANCE ACROSS

SOUTHERN TIER OF CWA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

[michsnowfreak]

DTX

With this

setup the current forecast of likely probability of precipitation on Thursday night with

lower Chancy probability of precipitation on Friday still looks like a good forecast with

the system still 4-5 days away. At this time it appears snowfall

accumulations for this event could be 1 to 3 inches Thursday night

with another inch possible on Friday which would put the event shy

of an advisory. However being that far out totals could go up or

down based on the track of the low and how strong the isentropic

ascent is with the warm front.

[Chicago WX]

Yup... On the driveway only tho.

Anywho, I'm going with an Aleking-like call of 0.3" and then drizzle for LAF with this one.

[Thundersnow12]

ARX

THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO GET MORE ACTIVE GOING INTO THURSDAY

AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF BREAKS OFF OF THE CUT OFF LOW

CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL

DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON

THURSDAY AND DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE

VERTICAL LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS

DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN THE 280K TO 300K SURFACES. THE

THERMAL PROFILES BASED ON THE 05.12Z GFS SHOW THAT IT SHOULD

REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD

COME DOWN AS SNOW. AT THE MOMENT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A 1 TO 2 INCH

SNOWFALL WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY TO THE NORTH IN

CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

MKX

NEXT SHORTWAVE REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. 00Z

ECMWF IS STILL A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS.

ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

AND REACHES WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THICKNESS VALUES

INDICATE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SNOW...ALTHOUGH THICKNESS VALUES

HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. 850-700 MB MOISTURE

CONVERGENCE ON WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY GENERATES BETWEEN 0.10

AND 0.20 INCHES. 12Z GFS/06Z DGEX/00Z ECMWF ARE ALL SIMILAR AND COULD

BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GFS/DGEX SURFACE

TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE ECMWF...BUT EVEN THE FORECAST

SOUNDINGS OFF THE MORE NORTH GFS STILL SHOW PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE

SNOW USING TOP DOWN AND THICKNESS/TEMP METHODS.

[Moneyman]

Screw you Bow.

[snowstormcanuck]

18z GFS keeps 850 temps pretty reasonable considering how far north the the low tracks. But with those SSW sfc winds, I gotta think bl temps will go above freezing at some point. Good news is that it looks like all of the snow is deposited before p-type becomes an issue.

[Chicago WX]

Well this is coming into the NAM's range with the 12z run. The result through 78 hours...a US/Canadian border hugger. Meh.

[Chicago WX]

This thread needs some love. GGEM and Euro look like a 1-3" deal for a good many here, GFS is a little stingier.

[A-L-E-K]

This thread needs some love. GGEM and Euro look like a 1-3" deal for a good many here, GFS is a little stingier.

GFS isn't half bad up here. It would be nice to get a couple more refresher inches to help the snowpack survive the upcoming torch

[Chicago WX]

GFS isn't half bad up here. It would be nice to get a couple more refresher inches to help the snowpack survive the upcoming torch

My attention is quickly turning towards focusing on this meager hit, for here. Not liking the trends with the trailer...

[janetjanet998]

ILX

NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST WILL EJECT FROM LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE

PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...THEN WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE

NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. WITH 500MB

VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE

NORTH...THINK BEST LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS

NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE

KILX CWA...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOTED ON THE 295 AND 300K

SURFACES...HOWEVER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE REMAINS DRY AT

LOW-LEVELS...PREVENTING MUCH PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

HAVE HIT POPS HARDEST ACROSS THE NORTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MOST

FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS...WHERE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE A

GOOD BET ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. POPS TAPER OFF TO

JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH.

[AppsRunner]

Looks like I could squeeze 1-2" out of this... hopefully. It's time to get more than .2" of snow at a time.

[cyclone77]

12z GEM still maintains a nice 3-5" swath from Iowa into northern Illinois Thursday. It's been pretty consistent with that the last few days. It's by far the wettest model with this system though. The 12z GFS would be more like a quick inch or two for areas north of I-80. Overall, I think the GEM handled the last clipper better than the others, so I'm gonna ride it on this one. Of course maybe that's just because it's the one with the best QPF lol.

[michsnowfreak]

Looks like I could squeeze 1-2" out of this... hopefully. It's time to get more than .2" of snow at a time.

My sentiments exactly. We have had flakes in the air, honest to god, 85-90% of the time this month, and have totaled 0.4" imby, always 0.1" at a time. Its always been accompanied by 30+ mph winds too. Certainly looks and DEFINITELY feels like midwinter with one exception...the ground is not white! DTX is tentatively saying 1-2". Wonder what ratios will be? This will basically be a WAA snow, but with temps comfortably in the 20s.

[AppsRunner]

My sentiments exactly. We have had flakes in the air, honest to god, 85-90% of the time this month, and have totaled 0.4" imby, always 0.1" at a time. Its always been accompanied by 30+ mph winds too. Certainly looks and DEFINITELY feels like midwinter with one exception...the ground is not white! DTX is tentatively saying 1-2". Wonder what ratios will be? This will basically be a WAA snow, but with temps comfortably in the 20s.

Yeah. I've had snow the last 3 days, total of .2" Get a trace, then melts an hour later.

If I got 2" It would quadruple my snowfall total. Awful.

[michsnowfreak]

Yeah. I've had snow the last 3 days, total of .2" Get a trace, then melts an hour later.

If I got 2" It would quadruple my snowfall total. Awful.

Dont let this cold and the snow in many other areas nearby fool you. It is very early, and much of northern New England has bare ground too. Being December 6th it is certainly no cause for concern, it is just a bit frustrating. And it is nice to see snow always in the air, just too much wind and way too little accumulation. If I had time Id be interested in looking up the number of hours DTW has reported snow (top of the hour) and the number of hours ORD has reported snow this December. I think DTW would probably have at LEAST double ORD, yet DTW is at 0.5" and ORD 5.2".

[Chicago WX]

0z NAM can't even keep this thing in the lower 48. Granted it still has snow for MN and WI, and eventually MI, but geez with that slp location.

[cyclone77]

00z NAM delivers a nice little cover for the snow starved Michigan peeps.

[Chicago WX]

00z NAM delivers a nice little cover for the snow starved Michigan peeps.

Looks good for them on pretty much all of the models right now.

[AppsRunner]

Dont let this cold and the snow in many other areas nearby fool you. It is very early, and much of northern New England has bare ground too. Being December 6th it is certainly no cause for concern, it is just a bit frustrating. And it is nice to see snow always in the air, just too much wind and way too little accumulation. If I had time Id be interested in looking up the number of hours DTW has reported snow (top of the hour) and the number of hours ORD has reported snow this December. I think DTW would probably have at LEAST double ORD, yet DTW is at 0.5" and ORD 5.2".

Yeah, definitely. I've had flurries/light snow the past 7 hours here for a grand total of .3" At least some random band keeps developing NW of me and heading this way. I could use a south trend on this clipper, but I doubt much will happen.