Question regarding this winter

[bigdog_10_2002]

Hey All,

I have hardly any weather knowledge whatsoever, but I do enjoy reading these threads and the ones that were over at Eastern.

My question, regarding winter weather in the piedmont and foothills of NC is this:

I've seen a couple different posts on this board as well as read some discussion from some mets that we will likely experience a warm up in the months of January and Feb. and that the chance of wintry weather will be reduced. My question is, what is the reasoning for this? And, how do Mets know what 2 months down the road will hold?

Thanks in advance

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Maybe someone else will go into more detail, but forecasters use climatology and long range Enso model predictions to get a vague idea of the pattern that will setup in the coming winter months.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

There are a number of factors that will go into a long range winter forecast. Most forecasters will use analog years that had similar weather patterns as this year and speculate what this year will hold based on past history. ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) is one of the signals that is most always used as well as Solar activity and many others. Past history tells us what conditions will be like for the winter after everything is factored in........ Is it always right?,,,,,No, but it is a good starting point to a seasonal forecast. Hope this helps answer your question.

[bigdog_10_2002]

Thanks to you both.

It does.