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Solar Blast


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lol what does this even mean? It's obvious that Steve knows way more about this topic than anyone else in this thread...he has a genuine interest in the northern lights. Should he not start these threads because some dumbass weenies make mountains out of molehills?

See I don't even think there's anyone making mountains out of molehills. Where are there people freaking out in this thread? There are none, yet that didn't stop the posts acting as if there was some hype machine.

We talk about a lot of things on this forum that an average everyday joe would regard as very very mundane but we do so because there is an interest. I don't see this thread as any different.

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major impacts to earth was the original subtitle FYI. EasternUS also has a bit of history.

I see - I definitely did not see the original subtitle. That makes the reactions more understandable but given as the official terminology is major I still tend to think its not entirely founded. In any event, thanks for the information. it sheds a good amount of light.

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The OP is a factual report of what happened. At no point does the OP say anything about potential effects. What about the OP is hype? The fact that the flare isn't all that big in the grand scheme of things?

I don't remember the exact wording of the subtitle when the thread was created, but it was hype if I remember correctly. Yes, the fact a M-1 is a pretty common event made it seem silly to start a thread about it. To each their own I guess.

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The interesting thing is that since I have been involved in the business of Space Weather forecasting I know what can transpire during a big Geophysical event . Take the March 1989 event for example, what people have heard mostly about it is that the power grid in Canada went down and there was a transformer fire at a nuclear plant in the US. However, while monitoring long range communications, the 1989 event knocked all that out. Radio bursts from the flares interefered with all Geosat reception, the combined proton and Gemag event caused the solar panels on the GOES to age 7 years in one week. The PCA interefered with the LORAN and OMEGA NAVAIDS causing navigation problems. Add to this the fact that GPS was not giving useable position and timing data meant that the only reliable form of navigation available to aircrews was celestial. Several satellites failed and thousands of orbitting objects underwent orbital changes and had to be reacquired. In the years since there have been some spectacular satellite failures due to the effects of Solar activity and GPS anomalies during the past two cycles certainly affected combat operations. OTOH what is presnted as a scenario is certainly a worse case one based upon actualities with the Carrington and 1989 events and like the worse case scenarios for US hurricanes are ones that will be rarely experienced but never neglected since if Nature hits tha jackpot it could happen. In 1989, we were just in the early stages of our Space system dependent lifestyle so what were merely inconveniences then could be real issues this time around if we get a big event. To understand that the media superhypes this stuff to make every event seem like Armageddon is important as the media is fairly stupid-but to ignore the possibilities of what can happen if the Sun puts it all together is naive.

Steve

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See I don't even think there's anyone making mountains out of molehills. Where are there people freaking out in this thread? There are none, yet that didn't stop the posts acting as if there was some hype machine.

We talk about a lot of things on this forum that an average everyday joe would regard as very very mundane but we do so because there is an interest. I don't see this thread as any different.

It's not just this thread tho. Much of the commentary about these events goes to total satellite blakouts etc. It's a larger cultural issue where we have all become afraid o everything.

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See I don't even think there's anyone making mountains out of molehills. Where are there people freaking out in this thread? There are none, yet that didn't stop the posts acting as if there was some hype machine.

We talk about a lot of things on this forum that an average everyday joe would regard as very very mundane but we do so because there is an interest. I don't see this thread as any different.

Did I specifically say this thread?

This thread is actually a lot better than many of the tangential topics to met that get posted on the weatherside...volcanic eruptions, a nuclear meltdown thread, tsunamis, etc. Everyone one of those threads got downright awful at times.

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It's not just this thread tho. Much of the commentary about these events goes to total satellite blakouts etc. It's a larger cultural issue where we have all become afraid o everything.

If there is previous history then it once again makes more sense. I agree with you on the larger cultural issue. There is no doubt there is a huge media hype machine at work that loves to bring forth doomsday coverage because it drives ratings.

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The 2100Z 3 hour ap/Kp indices are 207/8Z which is Severe Geomagnetic storm Category G4. If the Bz holds strongly negative then East Coast observers dhould begin to monitor the sky from a dark sky location as soon as possible after sunset. This is the initial phase so a drop in activity is likely and then an increase when the main phase starts. Substorming to K=9 is remotely possible for a short time which would coincide with a burst of auroral activity. European observerd should be watching already.

Steve

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Kush posted a cool study on the other side of the board that humans in general are wired to fear/prepare for highly unlikely but high impact events and not think too much about the more likely but lower impact events. I wouldn't blame the media so much...given that they are just reflecting a human tendency.

it's true an you could say the same about terrorism etc. I think ease of information access is making it worse though. Plus the medias research skills are arguably much lower today than in the past since headlines sell instantly even if the story is crap.

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Just noticed the K index is 8, with four hours until darkness... what torture. If it's anything like the megastorms in 2003, the peak activity seems to last around 5-6 hours before slowly declining.

My town does fireworks tonight which just happen to be off to my north. It'd be cool to photograph fireworks with northern lights in the background. Got maybe 30% cloudcover right now.

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In any event, whats the bottom line for latitude? Steve I know you and I are fairly similar lats but I'm farther east in NM. Should I even care?

Does elevation play a role at all?

Elevation is important only in that clear air tends to be clearer. Latitude wise you are better located than I am so yes, if the K=8 holds or even 7+ then you could be lucky. For K=8 the aurbo may be seen down to GEOMAGNETIC latitude 45N which runs roughly from Los Angeles through PHX into Central NM and Central TX and into South Carolina. If we hit sustained K=9 then anywhere in the lower 48 is possible even into Mexico and Cuba (in 1989 even HI saw aurora)

Steve

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For people in New England... this is what a nice Kp of 8-9 can bring. I took these in 2003 during an epic substorm right overhead.

1.jpg

9.jpg

cool pics...saw the same thing in Oswego in 2003. I don't see this as having quite the extent of that one so I'm think more in the distant north as opposed to right overhead like 03 was.

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Elevation is important only in that clear air tends to be clearer. Latitude wise you are better located than I am so yes, if the K=8 holds or even 7+ then you could be lucky. For K=8 the aurbo may be seen down to GEOMAGNETIC latitude 45N which runs roughly from Los Angeles through PHX into Central NM and Central TX and into South Carolina. If we hit sustained K=9 then anywhere in the lower 48 is possible even into Mexico and Cuba (in 1989 even HI saw aurora)

Steve

Thanks! Will definitely check the skies this evening then.

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