mappy Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 oh.. wait, just a cloud. sorry, carry on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Bt of >30 and Bz of -20 is delightful... should easily allow for a Kp of 7 and northern lights down into the mid atlantic if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Dude, you are serious troll bait right now...... ? OMG it just got really dark oh.. wait, just a cloud. sorry, carry on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Yes posted above. SWPC issued it yesterday. Anything more recent from 24 hours ago? Is there any data from satellites in L1 that show that the certain parameters exist for the SPWC to upgrade the advisory level above 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 Anything more recent from 24 hours ago? Is there any data from satellites in L1 that show that the certain parameters exist for the SPWC to upgrade the advisory level above 1? Space Weather Message Code: WATA50 Serial Number: 42 Issue Time: 2011 Aug 04 1603 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely Valid for UTC Day: 2011 Aug 05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Space Weather Message Code: WATA50 Serial Number: 42 Issue Time: 2011 Aug 04 1603 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely Valid for UTC Day: 2011 Aug 05 1400Z, August 5, 2011 - Conditions have quieted since the arrival of the first shock late yesterday. Its passage did not excite the geomagnetic field much, as was predicted -- rather it's the still-expected jolt from two others still on the way. ACE low energy proton data show there's still a good chance of their arrival any time soon. Kinda weak, not saying you are wrong but your info is still 24 hours old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 Kinda weak, not saying you are wrong but your info is still 24 hours old It is a watch, and was not cancelled. That is like saying a winter storm watch was issued 24hrs ago but, probably won't go warning cause it is 24hrs old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 It is a watch, and was not cancelled. That is like saying a winter storm watch was issued 24hrs ago but, probably won't go warning cause it is 24hrs old. is analyst wx providing any personal forecasts on this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 is analyst wx providing any personal forecasts on this event? IDK maybe. I just do PA forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I know there was a fairly impressive event in the winter of 04-05, I remember a great Northern Light show that lit the entire Northern sky up one night back in Mount Pleasant. I want to say it was in November of 2004. It was-it was also visible in AZ. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Kinda weak, not saying you are wrong but your info is still 24 hours old they only issue those geomagnetic forecasts once a day. I know EasternUS is easy troll bate...but the G3 forecast is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Hearing about some HF problems with flights north of 71N. That's due to the PCA (Polar Cap Absorption) event being caused by the proton event ongoing. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 X class solar flares DO NOT cause major problems every time, not even close. It takes an upper-range X Class flare pointed at Earth to do something, it's a very rare event, that's why there's few recorded in history. You are correct-the March 1989 event, which caused more problems than most people realize including a total GPS dropout, was the third most intense on record. That means that since the 19th Century only two Gemags have been stronger. The Interplanetary field data indicates a hard hit from a CME just recently with strong negative Bz and Bt values. BTW, strong Gemag events last 12-24 hours on average so event with onset now tonight would still be good if the event is ongoing (the March 1989 event lasted over 48 hours with a 24 hour A index at max of 388 [400 is max} and aurbo visible in AZ for two consecutive nights). Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 What are your grounds to believe that? Do you have an inside tip, disussion or other release from SWPC to say such? Try going to the current data links on the SWPC site or to other sites as well which have the current data available. plus you might want to learn the criteria for storm categories. BTW the latest 3 hr ap/Kp index values at 2000Z are 94/6+ which is at major storm storm levels and G2 event so far. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Indeed. We got too many X flares to count at the peak of the last solar max. They're not exactly rare. Actually since each observed flare is numbered, we know full well how many X-class events we had last cycle. X-class flares make up about 1% of all observed flares while X10 or higher make up 0.1% or less. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 Try going to the current data links on the SWPC site or to other sites as well which have the current data available. plus you might want to learn the criteria for storm categories. BTW the latest 3 hr ap/Kp index values at 2000Z are 94/6+ which is at major storm storm levels and G2 event so far. Steve So this is pretty crazy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 A 200 nT drop is a hard hit. The Analysts at SWPC reported that the shock impact has compressed the magnetopause to a height below that of the Geosats thuse they are now being exposed to the full force of the Solar Wind and proton flux which is what can cause satellite failure. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I think given the amount of overreaction that goes on in this forum (look no further than people dying to chase Don - for instance) that the amount of anger and annoyance over the perceived overreaction in this thread is fairly hilarious. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 I think given the amount of overreaction that goes on in this forum (look no further than people dying to chase Don - for instance) that the amount of anger and annoyance over the perceived overreaction in this thread is fairly hilarious. Carry on. Ya satellite failure. Funny stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Ya satellite failure. Funny stuff. Perhaps you should try rereading my post as it seems you were not able to obtain the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I think given the amount of overreaction that goes on in this forum (look no further than people dying to chase Don - for instance) that the amount of anger and annoyance over the perceived overreaction in this thread is fairly hilarious. Carry on. I feel about the same on all issues. A big part of it is that fearmongering is big business in the media etc., plus we have all these tools and graphs we never had before. Now everyone can be a closet "expert" and fuel the frenzy. Yeah, sure, maybe one of these will ultimately blow the world's electronics to hell. But something tells me we may just get "that storm" and it will be less dangerous than advertised, and/or it wont ever come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I feel about the same on all issues. A big part of it is that fearmongering is big business in the media etc., plus we have all these tools and graphs we never had before. Now everyone can be a closet "expert" and fuel the frenzy. Yeah, sure, maybe one of these will ultimately blow the world's electronics to hell. But something tells me we may just get "that storm" and it will be less dangerous than advertised, and/or it wont ever come. Strongly agree. The space weather frothers are most reminiscent of the volcano people... it's a whole lot of hype over something we don't really know much about (a nice analogy would be Da Vinci predicting tornadoes in a given year way back when). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I feel about the same on all issues. A big part of it is that fearmongering is big business in the media etc., plus we have all these tools and graphs we never had before. Now everyone can be a closet "expert" and fuel the frenzy. Yeah, sure, maybe one of these will ultimately blow the world's electronics to hell. But something tells me we may just get "that storm" and it will be less dangerous than advertised, and/or it wont ever come. There's always that doomsday scenario... a ridiculously enormous CME that destroys the world's electronics, Yellowstone, an asteroid/comet, a gamma ray burst, an oceanic anoxic event, the next superbug, etc. etc. Someone always has to make money off of hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 There's always that doomsday scenario... a ridiculously enormous CME that destroys the world's electronics, Yellowstone, an asteroid/comet, a gamma ray burst, an oceanic anoxic event, the next superbug, etc. etc. Someone always has to make money off of hype. I think you can only "make fun" of it so far, as there is certainly some potential for mayhem it would seem. Still, the Internet has a way of bringing large groups of 'kooks' together and making once fringe thoughts mainstream. Then you add in all the media vying for top spot in Google on every "story" and it all runs rampant. Aurora is cool... if the focus was there I'd be happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 There's always that doomsday scenario... a ridiculously enormous CME that destroys the world's electronics, Yellowstone, an asteroid/comet, a gamma ray burst, an oceanic anoxic event, the next superbug, etc. etc. Someone always has to make money off of hype. I don't think the knowingly ignorant are as much of a problem as the supposedly informed (it's usually aslkahuna who eggs these threads on) who are actually just as ignorant. It's much easier to convince people if you throw around numbers and letters that don't make any sense since the discussion seems "intelligent" when in some cases, it's just BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 The point is that there's really no type of hype going on in this thread, from what I can see. Certainly no one advocated any type of doom and gloom scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 The point is that there's really no type of hype going on in this thread, from what I can see. Certainly no one advocated any type of doom and gloom scenario. Actually the OP was pretty much hype. This whole thread started with a M1 flare..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I don't think the knowingly ignorant are as much of a problem as the supposedly informed (it's usually aslkahuna who eggs these threads on) who are actually just as ignorant. It's much easier to convince people if you throw around numbers and letters that don't make any sense since the discussion seems "intelligent" when in some cases, it's just BS. lol what does this even mean? It's obvious that Steve knows way more about this topic than anyone else in this thread...he has a genuine interest in the northern lights. Should he not start these threads because some dumbass weenies make mountains out of molehills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Actually the OP was pretty much hype. This whole thread started with a M1 flare..... The OP is a factual report of what happened. At no point does the OP say anything about potential effects. What about the OP is hype? The fact that the flare isn't all that big in the grand scheme of things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 The point is that there's really no type of hype going on in this thread, from what I can see. Certainly no one advocated any type of doom and gloom scenario. There is a disproportionate focus on unlikely scenarios... Which is not necessarily uncommon I suppose. Those who know what they are talking about (Eek, aslkahuna) less so of course. This is an event that will produce pretty skies for some folks and not much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.