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Solar Blast


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EARTH-DIRECTED BLAST: Sunspot 1261 erupted on August 2nd at 0619 UT, producing a long-duration M1-class solar flare. At the peak of the event, the sunspot's magnetic canopy was beautifully illuminated by extreme ultraviolet radiation, shown here in an image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

m1_strip.jpg

The blast hurled a CME almost directly toward Earth. Three spacecraft (SOHO, STEREO-A and STEREO-B) tracked the progress of the expanding cloud. Using data from those three points of view, analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab made a 3-dimensional model of the CME. According to their work, the cloud left the sun traveling 900 km/s and should reach Earth on August 5th at 0300 UT plus or minus 7 hours. Polar geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME arrives.

3dcme.gif

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M6-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth orbiting satellites have just detected a significant M6-class solar flare. The source appears to be sunspot 1261. Increased energetic proton fluxes are possible in the vicinity of Earth. Stay tuned for updates.

Unless you are the author (Dr. Tony Phillips), you should link directly to spaceweather.com. Without a link or citation, you are claiming this article as your own.

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M6-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth orbiting satellites have just detected a significant M6-class solar flare. The source appears to be sunspot 1261. Increased energetic proton fluxes are possible in the vicinity of Earth. Stay tuned for updates.

Nice, that one is a bit more interesting, how much more powerful was that compared to the M-1. Many times larger correct?

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According to NOAA there is no current advisories out for this... There was a R2 earlier today but even then the scale says that those happen about 300 days in a sun cycle (11 years).. Impressive to look at but no impacts as far as any technology on earth or in space..

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

NOAA SPWC Definition of a R2 alert

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According to NOAA there is no current advisories out for this... There was a R2 earlier today but even then the scale says that those happen about 300 days in a sun cycle (11 years).. Impressive to look at but no impacts as far as any technology on earth or in space..

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

NOAA SPWC Definition of a R2 alert

Just happened about an hour ago. Data might not be taken in yet.

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M 9.2. Pretty large. Last one was M6 and could cause some issues by the 5th-7th. We will see what the data shows for this one.

That's a biggie but I remember the X28 back in 2003 not directed at earth and immensely larger than any of these the last few days. It all seems to come down to if it is directed right at us or not. If it was not directed right at us we have nothing to worry about. If it was then some minor issues could occur with these past two M6 and M9.2.

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Little if any..

Little if any direct impact in a measurable sense from just 1 CME, over time more of these can affect the upper atmosphere in ways that may increase/decrease high frequency radiation entering into the oceans, OHC would be effected, long term.

The Peak of the Magnetic Solar aspect ended in the 2003-05 timeframe.

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From Spaceweather.com

Last nights CME

Moving at an estimated speed of 1950 km/s, this CME is expected to sweep up two earlier CMEs already en route. Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab say thecombined cloud should reach Earth on August 5th at 13:55 UT plus or minus 7 hours: "The impact on Earth is likely to be major. The estimated maximum geomagnetic activity index level Kp is 7 (Kp ranges from 0 - 9).

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From NWS

1500Z, August 4, 2011 - Great anticipation for the first of what may be three convergent shocks to slam the geomagnetic field in the next twelve hours, +/-. The CME with the Radio Blackout earlier today is by far the fastest, and may catch its forerunners in the early hours of August 5 (UTC) -- at earth.

Two impacts are expected; G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storming on August 5, and potentially elevated protons to the S3 (Strong) Solar Radiation Storm condition, those piling up ahead of the shock. The source of it all, Region 1261, is still hot, so more eruptions are possible.

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For those of us who don't speak solar , what does this all mean? As far as comms, service disruptions?

FROM NWS

Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.

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Yes but "Major Impacts to Earth" doesn't seem likely, if even possible.

Two impacts are expected; G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storming on August 5, and potentially elevated protons to the S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm condition, those piling up ahead of the shock. The source of it all, Region 1261, is still hot, so more eruptions are possible.

Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.

Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab say thecombined cloud should reach Earth on August 5th at 13:55 UT plus or minus 7 hours: "The impact on Earth is likely to be major. The estimated maximum geomagnetic activity index level Kp is 7 (Kp ranges from 0 - 9).

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