Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 This run is faster. It's lacking backside precip too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Well, that run of the Euro kind of sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 wtf... am taking a better look at the thermal fields with the GGEM, but can't help noticing that it tries to occlude the primary in literally just under 12 hours after it comes out of the lee-side trough. Seems a little ridiculous, even for rapid cyclogenesis. I'm at home, so I don't have the best access to model data, but are we looking at an instant occlusion situation? Seems like a candidate considering the origin of the primary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Euro 7 day surface map at Plymouth is quite the jumbled mess (Sea Level Pressure lines 2mb) http://greatlakes.sa...mouth_page.html Going to be some epic lake effect snow if the Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Not sure what snow ratios will be...but GFS sure wants to paint this town white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Not surprised to see the GFS come north although it's a shame the Canadian and Euro did as well, so it's probably not done. This might end up being one of those instances where you hope for the storm to occlude well west to help stop the torch and preserve the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I'm at home, so I don't have the best access to model data, but are we looking at an instant occlusion situation? Seems like a candidate considering the origin of the primary low. Ah yes. It does indeed appear to be doing this, or something close to it, from looking at the 700/500mb levels more closely. Could explain the massive, dominant trowal on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I don't know if it occludes in time to shunt the warm air to the SE but that track depicted by the EURO sure smells like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 What a mess. Literally. As always the best chances of snow will be "north" probably I-80 corridor. However, as pointed out by some people much smarter then me. the jet orientation would suggest a shot for a major ice storm along the I-780 corridor with cold air entranced under the occluded low assuming it is not in Michigan. Also we have no idea yet what the 1st system will do. We also can't say what the massive snow pack will do, so far models are busting warm all over the place. Mostly it blows to have models go past 84 hours. Sure would make life for me easier if they stopped there. and we could extrapolate instead of having guidance possibly give us bogus ideas. Guess it's not as bad for those not as emotionally invested in the outcome. I honestly would take 2 inches of snow becuase I just want to see how cold we can get after this with snow cover. gonna take a bit to see this start to come together, but I wouldn't bank on anyone along or south of 70 getting a big snow storm, we all have been tracking this for a long time and most of the time North is right. From Chris Higgins, Met in STL. Upon further review... the new EURO portrays a classic winter storm for the STL area...with an inverted trough extending north from a wave on the stalled arctic front in southern plains. It spins up a new and powerful surface low at the triple point in AR and lifts it east/northeast up the ohio river....along a classic memphis low track..with the 500mb low centered over or just south of STL by 12z sunday. Taken strictly at face value, the EURO implies near blizzard conditions for much of MO spreading into IL during the day Sunday. On the flip side... the candian is MUCH further north...even further north than the old Euro was. It has a much flatter west to east upper flow and shows far less digging. The canadian ensembles show a massive spread in solutions indicating a high confusion level within the model. The GFS ensembles are all over the place as well. However, both model ensembles do have several members that support the latest Euro solution. So the H5 low is close or south of KSTL? but the surface low is hundreds of miles north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I think that was last nights run Friv or the night before or something. I've lost track now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Only 2 of the GFS ensembles support a track similar to the Euro, and they don't have thermal fields anywhere near the op Euro (instead favoring an "occluded" cyclone along/near the border). The rest are along or south of the OP GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Well, that run of the Euro kind of sucked. Well at least we still have a few more days to wait and watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Well at least we still have a few more days to wait and watch... By that time it'll be north of the Canadian border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 With the GFS and UKMET in agreement, will be interesting to see how this pans out. The three have been duking it out for first place for the past 4 weeks or so in the N. Hem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 You chicago guys need to look at the JMA...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looking through the New England forum for some 12z Euro ensemble tidbits. Here's what I got: Primary south of Cleveland.... redevelops near like Allentown, PA. Soaker. Thanks to CT Rain for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 You chicago guys need to look at the JMA...lol. Only updates in 24 hour increments? I saw it earlier but forgot where the rain/snow line is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 You chicago guys need to look at the JMA...lol. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Has the JMA ever scooped one, i always thought it was pretty trashy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Has the JMA ever scooped one, i always thought it was pretty trashy. I think it had one Mid-Atlantic/Northeast "moment" a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 By that time it'll be north of the Canadian border Which as much as it pains me to say, I'll take it. Since I've got a business trip that takes me to both Festus and Cape G, Mo next week. I'd much rather deal with rain that snow for that drive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 So we have the Euro going far north, the GEM is similar but it tracks in more of an easterly direction. The 12z GFS is pseudo-miller B (i think?)....so much for model agreement I don't like having the Euro/GEM against me, but I have to think they will trend back south a bit. Just probably a bit north of what the GFS shows. Or maybe it will be the first time ever we don't see a NW trend from the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Just recently posted from Tom Skilling on Tweeter: Modest snow/sleet system due Thu--but this coming weekend's system looking mean for the Midwest--potentially a full blown winter storm. Latest 2 wk computer snowfall estimates here range from 5.2 to as much as 16.6" on the most recent 7 runs of the Wx Svc's GFS forecast model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 So we have the Euro going far north, the GEM is similar but it tracks in more of an easterly direction. The 12z GFS is pseudo-miller B (i think?)....so much for model agreement I don't like having the Euro/GEM against me, but I have to think they will trend back south a bit. Just probably a bit north of what the GFS shows. Or maybe it will be the first time ever we don't see a NW trend from the GFS Yep ever since Hoosier said models were in agreement things exploded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 NOAA Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 NOAA Map Not good for Se MI. Typical models showing a monster in the carolinas and moving it NW ever so slowly. The block is weak so I dont think anything is preventing this thing from cutting north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Not good for Se MI. Typical models showing a monster in the carolinas and moving it NW ever so slowly. The block is weak so I dont think anything is preventing this thing from cutting north. Unless the polar vortex drops south more, that will keep it from cutting north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Has the JMA ever scooped one, i always thought it was pretty trashy. I think it had one Mid-Atlantic/Northeast "moment" a few years ago. Got that first Major East Cost storm in December... But then again the CRAS got lucky on precip fields once too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I think it had one Mid-Atlantic/Northeast "moment" a few years ago. It had the Feb 11-12 ,2006 snowstorm a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 NOAA Map Heavy snow + Much below temps = Too bad those things are a crapshoot at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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