Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event?

[Stevo6899]

Still 140 out. GGEM has a serious NW bias. Has shown several storms way too NW so far this year. GFS has a SE bias. Euro has been decent 7 days out but who knows. Blend it all and you get a track through ohio. My fear is that it transfers energy too early to give MI,OH decent snows.

[csnavywx]

Did anyone actually look at the GGEM, with it occluding the warm air would divert east, yes it kind of bones Ohio, but MI would probably be a snow to mix.

Yeah I noticed. There's a nice trowal on the system too, but after the front end WAA thump, everybody south of Cent WI gets dry slotted.. at least for a while, which kills the prospect of having a significant snowstorm.

That said, we'll see if the Euro comes north too.

[Chicago WX]

Did anyone actually look at the GGEM, with it occluding the warm air would divert east, yes it kind of bones Ohio, but MI would probably be a snow to mix.

Yep wouldn't be terrible for MI.

[Stebo]

Yeah I noticed. There's a nice trowal on the system too, but after the front end WAA thump, everybody south of Cent WI gets dry slotted.. at least for a while, which kills the prospect of having a significant snowstorm.

That said, we'll see if the Euro comes north too.

Yeah I noticed the dry slot, though with the low over Chicago the dry slotting can only go so far north. Of course being in the bullseye 5 days out is bad news.

[Moneyman]

You guys are going way to much into detail for a storm that's 140+ hours out yet. Wait for this clipper to be out the way (which gives most areas at least 2-3 inches) and then focus on the details for this storm.

Things will change run after run. Not worth getting worked up or going into a ton of detail for a storm 6 days away.

[Chicago WX]

then of course the trough will dig in and we'll get brutal cold for a few days with nothing but flurries.....until the next pacific storm pumps the ridge ahead, we warm, we rain, ......wash rinse repeat. If this keeps up the anticipated January blowtorch can't come soon enough.

ok...i'm done whining

lol, dude this storm hasn't even happened yet and your canceling January already?

[JoMo]

You guys are going way to much into detail for a storm that's 140+ hours out yet. Wait for this clipper to be out the way (which gives most areas at least 2-3 inches) and then focus on the details for this storm.

Things will change run after run. Not worth getting worked up or going into a ton of detail for a storm 6 days away.

The writing is on the wall. Unless the Euro pulls a miracle, the majority of models are coming into agreement.

[KokomoWX]

StnID: gvs    Model: gfs3   Run: 20101206/1200    Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Sleet Ratio: 2:1   || CarSnowTool Beta 5.1

Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SRat|Snow||CumSR|TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR
==============================================================================================================
101206/1500Z   3  28014KT  14.0F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101206/1800Z   6  29015KT  18.9F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101206/2100Z   9  29015KT  19.0F  SNOW    10:1| 0.1|| 10:1| 0.1    0.008|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101207/0000Z  12  28013KT  14.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 10:1| 0.1    0.000|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101207/0300Z  15  28013KT  12.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 10:1| 0.1    0.000|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101207/0600Z  18  27013KT  11.7F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101207/0900Z  21  28014KT  13.5F  SNOW    10:1| 0.1|| 10:1| 0.1    0.008|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101207/1200Z  24  29012KT  15.4F  SNOW    10:1| 0.1|| 10:1| 0.2    0.012|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101207/1500Z  27  29013KT  17.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 10:1| 0.2    0.000|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101207/1800Z  30  29015KT  21.7F  SNOW    10:1| 0.1|| 10:1| 0.3    0.008|| 0.03     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101207/2100Z  33  29014KT  20.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 10:1| 0.3    0.000|| 0.03     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101208/0000Z  36  28011KT  13.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 10:1| 0.3    0.000|| 0.03     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101208/0300Z  39  28010KT  11.1F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101208/0600Z  42  28009KT  11.1F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101208/0900Z  45  28009KT  10.2F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101208/1200Z  48  27007KT   7.7F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101208/1500Z  51  27007KT  10.2F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101208/1800Z  54  27007KT  16.3F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101208/2100Z  57  27007KT  17.4F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101209/0000Z  60  28006KT  12.4F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101209/0300Z  63  27004KT  10.8F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101209/0600Z  66  25004KT  10.2F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101209/0900Z  69  23004KT  10.4F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101209/1200Z  72  20004KT  10.6F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101209/1500Z  75  18008KT  17.2F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101209/1800Z  78  18009KT  24.4F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101209/2100Z  81  17010KT  25.3F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101210/0000Z  84  17012KT  24.1F  SNOW    16:1| 0.5|| 16:1| 0.5    0.031|| 0.03     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101210/0300Z  87  18013KT  25.0F  SNOW     7:1| 0.3|| 11:1| 0.8    0.047|| 0.08     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101210/0600Z  90  20014KT  26.2F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0|| 11:1| 0.8    0.008|| 0.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.01|| 0.01
101210/0900Z  93  21013KT  27.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 11:1| 0.8    0.000|| 0.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.01
101210/1200Z  96  22014KT  30.6F  SNOW     7:1| 0.1|| 10:1| 0.9    0.008|| 0.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.01
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101210/1500Z  99  23014KT  32.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 10:1| 0.9    0.000|| 0.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.01
101210/1800Z 102  24013KT  32.9F  RASN     0:1| 0.0|| 10:1| 0.9    0.012|| 0.11     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.01
101210/2100Z 105  25014KT  31.1F  SNOW     8:1| 0.1|| 10:1| 1.0    0.008|| 0.11     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.01
101211/0000Z 108  27012KT  25.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 10:1| 1.0    0.000|| 0.11     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.01
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101211/0300Z 111  27009KT  21.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 10:1| 1.0    0.000|| 0.11     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.01
101211/0600Z 114  25008KT  18.1F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101211/0900Z 117  25005KT  18.5F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101211/1200Z 120  VRB02KT  18.7F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101211/1500Z 123  13007KT  25.2F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101211/1800Z 126  12008KT  31.8F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101211/2100Z 129  10013KT  32.4F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101212/0000Z 132  09013KT  30.6F  SNPL    10:1| 0.3|| 10:1| 0.3    0.031|| 0.03     0.02|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101212/0300Z 135  07015KT  30.0F  SNOW    14:1| 1.8|| 13:1| 2.1    0.126|| 0.16     0.00|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
101212/0600Z 138  04017KT  27.9F  SNOW    14:1| 2.7|| 14:1| 4.8    0.189|| 0.35     0.00|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
101212/0900Z 141  01018KT  25.5F  SNOW    18:1| 3.9|| 15:1| 8.6    0.213|| 0.56     0.00|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
101212/1200Z 144  35018KT  24.1F  SNOW    16:1| 1.5|| 16:1|10.1    0.091|| 0.65     0.00|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101212/1500Z 147  34018KT  26.1F  SNOW    17:1| 1.0|| 16:1|11.1    0.059|| 0.71     0.00|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
101212/1800Z 150  34020KT  25.7F  SNOW    17:1| 0.6|| 16:1|11.7    0.035|| 0.74     0.00|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
101212/2100Z 153  33019KT  24.8F  SNOW    15:1| 0.4|| 16:1|12.1    0.024|| 0.77     0.00|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
101213/0000Z 156  32016KT  19.9F           0:1| 0.0|| 16:1|12.1    0.000|| 0.77     0.00|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101213/0300Z 159  31014KT  17.1F  SNOW    26:1| 0.2|| 16:1|12.3    0.008|| 0.78     0.00|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
101213/0600Z 162  31014KT  15.8F  SNOW    26:1| 0.5|| 16:1|12.8    0.020|| 0.80     0.00|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
101213/0900Z 165  30014KT  14.2F  SNOW    25:1| 0.6|| 16:1|13.4    0.024|| 0.82     0.00|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
101213/1200Z 168  30014KT  13.1F  SNOW    27:1| 0.8|| 17:1|14.1    0.028|| 0.85     0.00|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101213/1500Z 171  30019KT  14.2F  SNOW    27:1| 0.8|| 17:1|14.9    0.028|| 0.87     0.00|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
101213/1800Z 174  31020KT  17.8F  SNOW    28:1| 0.8|| 17:1|15.7    0.028|| 0.90     0.00|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
101213/2100Z 177  30017KT  16.7F  SNOW    27:1| 0.6|| 18:1|16.3    0.024|| 0.93     0.00|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
101214/0000Z 180  29016KT  11.3F  SNOW    25:1| 0.6|| 18:1|16.9    0.024|| 0.95     0.00|| 0.02    0.00|| 0.00
========================================================================================================

Reference: http://www.meteor.ia...data/index.html

[buckeye]

lol, dude this storm hasn't even happened yet and your canceling January already?

It's a coping mechanism....i learned it from ji

[Stebo]

It's a coping mechanism....i learned it from ji

I wouldn't learn anything from him, that's a dangerous game to play with that specific troll.

[csnavywx]

wtf... am taking a better look at the thermal fields with the GGEM, but can't help noticing that it tries to occlude the primary in literally just under 12 hours after it comes out of the lee-side trough. Seems a little ridiculous, even for rapid cyclogenesis.

[Chicago WX]

It's a coping mechanism....i learned it from ji

Fair enough.

[Stebo]

wtf... am taking a better look at the thermal fields with the GGEM, but can't help noticing that it tries to occlude the primary in literally just under 12 hours after it comes out of the lee-side trough. Seems a little ridiculous, even for rapid cyclogenesis.

Bingo, which would say the GGEM is probably too far left on this one.

[Thundersnow12]

the 12z GFS is pretty much heaven for northern IL holy smokes

[snowlord81]

the 12z GFS is pretty much heaven for northern IL holy smokes

And Central Indiana as KokomoWX showed in the page before this one.

[ayuud]

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_kbuf.dat

---------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------

101212/1500Z 147 08013KT 26.8F SNOW 18:1| 3.3|| 18:1| 3.3 0.177|| 0.18 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00

101212/1800Z 150 06014KT 28.2F SNOW 16:1| 5.3|| 17:1| 8.6 0.327|| 0.50 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00

101212/2100Z 153 03012KT 30.0F SNOW 18:1| 7.0|| 17:1|15.6 0.398|| 0.90 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00

101213/0000Z 156 02019KT 29.5F SNOW 9:1| 3.4|| 15:1|19.0 0.366|| 1.27 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------

101213/0300Z 159 34014KT 29.1F SNOW 17:1| 3.0|| 15:1|22.0 0.181|| 1.45 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00

101213/0600Z 162 31021KT 23.2F SNOW 12:1| 2.8|| 15:1|24.8 0.236|| 1.69 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00

101213/0900Z 165 32020KT 18.7F SNOW 21:1| 2.3|| 15:1|27.2 0.114|| 1.80 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00

101213/1200Z 168 32022KT 17.2F SNOW 26:1| 2.2|| 16:1|29.4 0.087|| 1.89 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------

101213/1500Z 171 32024KT 16.0F SNOW 27:1| 2.4|| 16:1|31.8 0.087|| 1.97 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00

101213/1800Z 174 31022KT 16.2F SNOW 30:1| 2.1|| 17:1|33.9 0.071|| 2.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00

101213/2100Z 177 31022KT 16.9F SNOW 27:1| 2.0|| 17:1|35.9 0.075|| 2.12 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00

101214/0000Z 180 31022KT 16.7F SNOW 27:1| 2.0|| 17:1|38.0 0.075|| 2.19 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00

========================================================================================================

[Moneyman]

Everyone should go in the chat for the euro. Fun times.

[Chicago Storm]

the 12z GFS is pretty much heaven for northern IL holy smokes

Lock it in.

[Thundersnow12]

[Stebo]

Michigan snow hole

I think I'm going to head to sleep on this one, don't want to be awake when the Euro tracks this thing through Canada or something ridiculous.

[Thundersnow12]

Lock it in.

If that verifies you can start every thread from here on out lol

[ayuud]

wat time does the 12z euro comes out

[JoMo]

If that verifies you can start every thread from here on out lol

I don't know man, still pretty far out to be in the sweet spot, ya know?

[JoMo]

wat time does the 12z euro comes out

starts in about 7 minutes I believe.

[Chicago WX]

I think I'm going to head to sleep on this one, don't want to be awake when the Euro tracks this thing through Canada or something ridiculous.

Smart man. If that happens, mass suicides.

[A-L-E-K]

Lock it in.

[A-L-E-K]

12z GFS ensembles aren't a total mess.

[JoMo]

12z Euro from tombo:

hr 126 has a sub 1004 low over rockford, ill

at hr 132 there is a sub 1000 low over lake mich

[Chicago Storm]

12z Euro from tombo:

hr 126 has a sub 1004 low over rockford, ill

This run is faster.

[A-L-E-K]

GFS was faster as well. Going to odd if we have a storm cut west just a day or two after a clipper, but it has happened before.