Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 GFS continues to get better for Iowa with each run. The storm doesn't really wrap up until it gets a bit east of Iowa, but the 12z breaks out widespread good snow across the state. It has also moved the storm up about a day compared to runs a day or two ago. The 12z has it snowing by Saturday morning. I really hope we can get good snow during the daylight hours. QPF doesnt match the low strength pattern, but it would certainly be a great hit for a lot of us, and if we can get that northern piece to phase quicker, things could explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I get blitzed by the GFS. You can safely deposit this run into the garbage. I have a gut good feeling about this one, which is rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I have a gut good feeling about this one, which is rare. If right I will worship at your temple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looks like we'll fight p-type issues here in LAF before a flip to mod-heavy snow, arm chair QBing the 12z GFS that is. Although the other models seem to be signaling that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 i think most in this thread would be happy ottawa does well, about a foot with strong winds montreal kinda gets screwed but ill take it, ill spend the wekeend in ottawa no prob its been SOOOOOOOOOOOO long since we had a real big snowstorm, well i guess almost exactly a calendar year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 meh, I'm wondeing if the gfs is telegraphing another northern shift in the globals coming up. The nogaps out to 120 has the low over central IA and the 850 0 line from central MI to the IA/MN border.....so it's gone significantly north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 meh, I'm wondeing if the gfs is telegraphing another northern shift in the globals coming up. The nogaps out to 120 has the low over central IA and the 850 0 line from central MI to the IA/MN border.....so it's gone significantly north. The GGEM and Euro were N last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 meh, I'm wondeing if the gfs is telegraphing another northern shift in the globals coming up. The nogaps out to 120 has the low over central IA and the 850 0 line from central MI to the IA/MN border.....so it's gone significantly north. Congrats Minneapolis!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The GGEM and Euro were N last night. I thought the GGEM was more like today's GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Congrats Minneapolis!!! lol...probably. Oh well, at least i've been around watching this stuff long enough to know that riding the the southern edge of the snowstorm on the gfs is usually the kiss of death outside 96 hours. Oh course I always hold out hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I thought the GGEM was more like today's GFS? I did too...i thought it was actually south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 meh, I'm wondeing if the gfs is telegraphing another northern shift in the globals coming up. The nogaps out to 120 has the low over central IA and the 850 0 line from central MI to the IA/MN border.....so it's gone significantly north. Yes, the model has been playing "catch-up" the last three runs, so this wouldn't shock me if the next 2 runs trying to show this thing being a MSN or MSP special with everyone to the south going to mixing or rain. One problem I have with a solution too far north is the placement of the PV and the western ridge, which is going to make it really tough for this thing to try and cut west of the lakes, or even ORD for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yes, the model has been playing "catch-up" the last three runs, so this wouldn't shock me if the next 2 runs trying to show this thing being a MSN or MSP special with everyone to the south going to mixing or rain. One problem I have with a solution too far north is the placement of the PV and the western ridge, which is going to make it really tough for this thing to try and cut west of the lakes, or even ORD for that matter. Exactly plus the East based weak -NAO to add into the mix. I could see a left progression in the models only to correct itself back right some as we move along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I did too...i thought it was actually south It was south...when it got to IL, compared to the 12z run from yesterday (0z central IL vs 12z ORD)...speaking only of comparing GGEM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I thought the GGEM was more like today's GFS? Depends on where you mean I guess. The GGEM had a low over S Iowa/N MO @ 144. Compared to the low being over NE Arkansas, SE MO on the 00z GFS. 00z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Is this storm phasing with the PV, another low, or just tapping into the gulf? The NAo is weakening and going east based so it can come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Taken from the main forum: the 12z UKMET has a very similar look to the GFS at 144 hours...primary low of 998mb over SW Ohio but with a stronger suggestion of a secondary redevelopment near the SC/NC border. There is bit more suppression over the North Atlantic than the GFS...a 50N/42W low instead of a 50N/40W low on the GFS...and the slightly stronger lead shortwave beating down 500mb heights to 540 dm instead of 548 dm over western Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I have a feeling that the 12Z Euro will end up coming at least a little south of its 00z run, based on the way its 00z ensembles were behaving. However, if it stays or moves further north, that could be a sign that the deterministic solution (and the members that agree with it) are on the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 FIM north so far fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 canadian....993 low over chicago game over edit: game over....is a point of view comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Taken from the main forum: That's actually a really good sign. NCEP bias tables suggest using the UKMET to check against the GFS solution past 84 hours in situations where phasing is an issue, as phasing is typically a strong point of the UKMET at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 12z GGEM stinks for everyone not living in Minnesota or Wisconsin. It takes the low from southeast SD to southern Lake Michigan. The 12z Nogaps shows pretty much the same thing. This north trend needs to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 How about we trend southeast, and then trend NW in the last 84 hours. Please stop the N trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 canadian....993 low over chicago game over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Did anyone actually look at the GGEM, with it occluding the warm air would divert east, yes it kind of bones Ohio, but MI would probably be a snow to mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 12z GGEM stinks for everyone not living in Minnesota or Wisconsin. It takes the low from southeast SD to southern Lake Michigan. The 12z Nogaps shows pretty much the same thing. This north trend needs to stop. the nogap looks like a strong clipper just moving from chicago to detroit to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Did anyone actually look at the GGEM, with it occluding the warm would divert east, yes it kind of bones Ohio, but MI would probably be a snow to mix. what about buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 what about buffalo same boat as Ohio sadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 same boat as Ohio sadly hope gfs verifies then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 same boat as Ohio sadly then of course the trough will dig in and we'll get brutal cold for a few days with nothing but flurries.....until the next pacific storm pumps the ridge ahead, we warm, we rain, ......wash rinse repeat. If this keeps up the anticipated January blowtorch can't come soon enough. ok...i'm done whining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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