BowMeHunter Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I gotta say MI weenies can be as bad as Ohio ones some times. Euro makes great sense.. You knew where it was going when the clipper shut us all out to the north.. Is the run right, probably not.... It's an eternity out.. no need to weenie out that its wrong because the run is not ideal.. This thing can go even farther west and it would make sense the way the Euro is playing the game right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 0z GFS just screamed to far south.. Said that in chat. Good to see it correcting some at 6z.. Prob can come north more at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 IWX predicting rain for the se half of their CWA at present. Who knows at this length of time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I gotta say MI weenies can be as bad as Ohio ones some times. Euro makes great sense.. You knew where it was going when the clipper shut us all out to the north.. Is the run right, probably not.... It's an eternity out.. no need to weenie out that its wrong because the run is not ideal.. This thing can go even farther west and it would make sense the way the Euro is playing the game right now. HEY! i resemble that remark. You're correct, if us 'southeners' want that gfs track or a tad south we desperately need #1 to juice up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Not jumping on any solution but with the Euro/Canadian further north, i'm discounting the GFS. Either way great to have trackable events 1 after the other to start December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 ukie 00z ....the gfs might have found someone on it's team. Looks fairly close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Not jumping on any solution but with the Euro/Canadian further north, i'm discounting the GFS. Either way great to have trackable events 1 after the other to start December. The Euro and Canadian were further north with the clipper that just happened initially too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 ukie 00z ....the gfs might have found someone on it's team. Looks fairly close Having the Ukie on your "team" is like signing your 3rd string QB to a 5 yr deal after one good pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Having the Ukie on your "team" is like signing your 3rd string QB to a 5 yr deal after one good pass. true....but at the same token the nogaps is now in the euro camp.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The Euro and Canadian were further north with the clipper that just happened initially too. So was the GFS, in fact by a lot at this range. Anyways, i really don't see how it's relevant to this event. I'll take Euro/Canadian agreement over the OP GFS anyday., especially when more than a couple of its ensembles are well north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The Euro and Canadian were further north with the clipper that just happened initially too. good point, and that sucker swung around us to the west and south donut-holing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 So was the GFS, in fact by a lot at this range. Anyways, i really don't see how it's relevant to this event. I'll take Euro/Canadian agreement over the OP GFS anyday., especially when more than a couple of its ensembles are well north. Its relevant because both that and the next 2 systems are coming ashore at the same place. Plus the Canadian and the Euro are not that much in agreement. Euro handles the vort energy totally different, and they wouldn't not even be considered in the same camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I know the STL crew would like to lock it up. Buckeye too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Its relevant because both that and the next 2 systems are coming ashore at the same place. Plus the Canadian and the Euro are not that much in agreement. Euro handles the vort energy totally different, and they wouldn't not even be considered in the same camp. Well, the CMC allows both streams to come into phase, and the EURO is a near miss initially and then phases them later, hence the track change on this run. It also goes from incipient wave to early occlusion in 24 hours, which is awfully quick, but if the system is bombing, that might be true. The 06z GFS finally woke up to reality and has the low developing in about the same spot, but doesn't commit to a phase until 6-12 hours after the CMC, and also a much slower maturity of the system, resulting in a very far south track. DGEX, being based off the GFS physics, agrees here (to no real surprise). But in any case, the initial SLP should be traveling SE to ESE and behaving like a clipper for a while before turning E then ENE/NE at maturity and turning into a more classical system. The questions that remain are.. how strong will the wave actually be when it comes onshore? How quickly will it deepen? Snowpack will have an effect given its orientation, but how much? Will there be an early phase, a near miss/phase later, or a complete miss? Too many unknowns at this point, but at least the consensus has turned to agreement on a big system. I can say this, timing for phasing systems this far out usually doesn't work out. If I had to bet, I'd say it's going to be a near miss. I'd also go for fast maturity, perhaps only a few hours shy of the Euro's solution. The models are also showing a very large WCB developing on the system, hence the strong hints at a TROWAL. That will be something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 true....but at the same token the nogaps is now in the euro camp.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I know people laugh at the NOGAPS (it mostly deserves it), but it does have its uses. Being a spectral model, it is useful for a sanity check in split model camps (this being one of the cases). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I gotta say MI weenies can be as bad as Ohio ones some times. Euro makes great sense.. You knew where it was going when the clipper shut us all out to the north.. Is the run right, probably not.... It's an eternity out.. no need to weenie out that its wrong because the run is not ideal.. This thing can go even farther west and it would make sense the way the Euro is playing the game right now. 0z GFS just screamed to far south.. Said that in chat. Good to see it correcting some at 6z.. Prob can come north more at 12z. Did you sleep at all last night? Anyway, seems to be enough model spread right now not to go jumping off any bridges by anyone. Plus it's still 6 or so days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Did you sleep at all last night? Anyway, seems to be enough model spread right now not to go jumping off any bridges by anyone. Plus it's still 6 or so days out. Yeah I'm not sure about the shot on Michigan either but meh. This is a long long ways out, as Csnavywx mentions there is many trains of thought that are going to go into this and we may not have a clue for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yeah I'm not sure about the shot on Michigan either but meh. This is a long long ways out, as Csnavywx mentions there is many trains of thought that are going to go into this and we may not have a clue for quite a while. I assume it was a chat thing. My internet went down last night, so I haven't the slightest clue. Regardless, taking one model and running with it right now is rather foolish IMO. And like you said, Csnavywx laid out the potential pitfalls/trends to watch...which make complete and total sense. For some reason I think there is a fatalistic mentality on here with regards to snowstorms sometimes. That's probably a topic for another time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I assume it was a chat thing. My internet went down last night, so I haven't the slightest clue. Regardless, taking one model and running with it right now is rather foolish IMO. And like you said, Csnavywx laid out the potential pitfalls/trends to watch...which make complete and total sense. For some reason I think there is a fatalistic mentality on here with regards to snowstorms sometimes. That's probably a topic for another time though. [OT] Do you have Comcast? Mine went down as well for quite a while. Kept getting busy signals from their service line before I finally got an automated message about a problem with the internet. [/OT] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I assume it was a chat thing. My internet went down last night, so I haven't the slightest clue. Regardless, taking one model and running with it right now is rather foolish IMO. And like you said, Csnavywx laid out the potential pitfalls/trends to watch...which make complete and total sense. For some reason I think there is a fatalistic mentality on here with regards to snowstorms sometimes. That's probably a topic for another time though. [OT] Do you have Comcast? Mine went down as well for quite a while. Kept getting busy signals from their service line before I finally got an automated message about a problem with the internet. [/OT] Comcast fix for you... http://brokencomcastinternet.wordpress.com/ (Looks like it has went down a few times recently.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 [OT] Do you have Comcast? Mine went down as well for quite a while. Kept getting busy signals from their service line before I finally got an automated message about a problem with the internet. [/OT] Yep. Couldn't get on the internet last night, so I got on my phone and did a search of "comcast internet problems" and came across a Tribune story that said Comcast was having DNS issues. I'm not the most savy computer user, but in hindsight, supposedly you can use Google's DNS settings in instances such as last night to keep connected. Have to file that one away for future use. EDIT: Thanks for the link Jim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 OT Yeah my home comcast was out too /OT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndySnow Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 [OT] Do you have Comcast? Mine went down as well for quite a while. Kept getting busy signals from their service line before I finally got an automated message about a problem with the internet. [/OT] I work for a IT Security Company in Kokomo and Comcast had a massive outage that affected Chicago, Michigan and Northern Indiana, it was a pretty big deal, heard they even shut down the call center for a while, surprise! Now bring on some more snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Charter isn't much better. I swear they have a weekly outage here. Its cheap and fast though. MKE going to cash in Bow? GFS looks to pump out near .5 inch of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I'll take the 6z GFS with no adjustment at all for $1000 Still gotta wonder if thing ends up not phasing or phasing a bit late....The difference between an early phase and late phase is small in terms of how it happens but what a massively different outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 didn't have internet last night for hours and then just decided to go to bed so catching up looking at the 0z runs now. really going to be a fun system to watch all week. That image of the GEM that chi storm posted is just nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 12z GFS follows the Canadian's lead and gets a big from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 GFS continues to get better for Iowa with each run. The storm doesn't really wrap up until it gets a bit east of Iowa, but the 12z breaks out widespread good snow across the state. It has also moved the storm up about a day compared to runs a day or two ago. The 12z has it snowing by Saturday morning. I really hope we can get good snow during the daylight hours. Much of the state of Iowa has missed out so far this season so we are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I get blitzed by the GFS. You can safely deposit this run into the garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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