snowstormcanuck Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The overall agreement on tonight's 00z runs (pending the Euro of course) is rather astonishing for being a week out. I'm going to bed on a high note. Hopefully the EURO makes it 3 sexy runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 GFS transitions to the coast way too soon, GGEM would be a solid hit for most of us of course its bias of overphasing showed at 12z. And I'd to see the12z Euro come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The overall agreement on tonight's 00z runs (pending the Euro of course) is rather astonishing for being a week out. Yes, its borderline scary to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 GFS transitions to the coast way too soon, GGEM would be a solid hit for most of us of course its bias of overphasing showed at 12z. And I'd to see the12z Euro come to fruition. I'm just going to pick a GFS Ensemble member I like and make it come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Where is the GEM track in relation to the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I should point out, despite the popular idea, while the -NAO does weaken substantially, it still will be there (all the models and ensembles agree there). That's why the storm isn't going to cut through through Minnesota (and probably not Wisconsin). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I should point out, despite the popular idea, while the -NAO does weaken substantially, it still will be there (all the models and ensembles agree there). That's why the storm isn't going to cut through through Minnesota (and probably not Wisconsin). Yeah based upon this I would expect the max furthest west would be the GGEM 12z run, I doubt it could even go further west than that based upon this indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Be interesting to see if there is any wind with the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Where are you finding the GEM model images..the site i use hasnt even updated yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The good GEM sites aren't updating for some reason, just the crappy black and white one. I'm interested to see the distribution of precip with that east-southeastward moving low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Cyclone: http://www.stanford.edu/~tenhoeve/weather/00zPrecipGLB.htm#picture That's the newest 0z GEM. It screws WI but is a very solid hit in IL/IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Be interesting to see if there is any wind with the system I'm sure there will be if it ends up being as strong as what the 12z Euro & 00z GFS have shown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Cyclone: http://www.stanford....GLB.htm#picture That's the newest 0z GEM. It screws WI but is a very solid hit in IL/IND. Ahhh! Thanks man, I totally forgot about that site. I'm bookmarking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Day 6 Euro (144) has a 1000 MB low over the IA/IL/WI border. Over Chicago at 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 00z gfs 24 hr precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 Day 6 Euro (144) has a 1000 MB low over the IA/IL/WI border. Congrats MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Hour 150: LOW over Chicago. Kinda like the GEM in a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Nearly 1 inch of QPF in WI from the EURO. Another solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 You knew SOMETHING was going to give.... too many models going 1 way to have complete ideal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 You knew SOMETHING was going to give.... too many models going 1 way to have complete ideal... well there is a 1002 MB low in basically the same spotish where the GFS has it at 144. This is kind of a 'both' deal, as far as having a low in the same spotish as the GFS and the GGEM. (other low is 999 over IL/IA/WI border) The northern low will probably win out, but that doesn't mean that it can't change in future model runs. *sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The Euro is right with the 0C Line, but it is wrong with the placement of the LP at hour 168,. The LP Should be around cleveland, a tad further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 The Euro is right with the 0C Line, but it is wrong with the placement of the LP at hour 168,. The LP Should be around cleveland, a tad further east. It's called occlusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 It's called occlusion. I know what it's called but it's occluding with what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 I know what it's called but it's occluding with what? Development of a secondary SLP in VA takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Anyways plenty of time left.. Had enough of snow this evening 1", reports have come in several Highways closers and many accident, just because of that one inch of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Development of a secondary SLP in VA takes over. How can that occlude the system then? Isnt that secondary low development? Transfer of energy, that would mean the low will track further south. If it was to track this far north, I dont see a coastal transfer happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Also, remember we are heading into mid December, the colder air has arrived and has settled. I stick to the southerly track as of right now for certain reasons. But anything can happen. Expect the unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 How can that occlude the system then? Isnt that secondary low development? Transfer of energy, that would mean the low will track further south. If it was to track this far north, I dont see a coastal transfer happening. The initial SLP occludes in Michigan allowing for a secondary to develop in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The Gfs strenghtens the storm and moves more ENE. GGEM moves more west to east then turns NNE, and the euro moves due east from iowa into michigan. Not sure I am buying any of those tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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