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Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event?


Chicago Storm

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Ugh, I don't feel good at all here in S. WI. All we have going for us in the Euro. Every other model is south.

The only positive thing is the fact that it's 100 hours out and that all we need in WI is for the low on the GFS to be about 90-100 miles nw and a bit stronger.

All I can say to pessimists this far out is remember last year's storm around this time (December 8-9). That missed the Mke area the other direction for a blizzard. This one is likely to miss to the southeast, but you never know.

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There are 2 things holding up the models right now, this far out, we examine these models way to hard. 1st, the sampling needs to come off the West Coast, That's why all the "got a clue" forecasters are waiting it out. 2nd, the clipper has a chance to interfere with the baroclinic zone. I believe the HPC has a handle on this, realizing the southern biases of the gfs and it's derivative models.

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There are 2 things holding up the models right now, this far out, we examine these models way to hard. 1st, the sampling needs to come off the West Coast, That's why all the "got a clue" forecasters are waiting it out. 2nd, the clipper has a chance to interfere with the baroclinic zone. I believe the HPC has a handle on this, realizing the southern biases of the gfs and it's derivative models.

Totally agree but it's still fun particularly with this model since it was so far out to lunch compared to other models.

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Will temps in Indiana be low enough for this to be all, or at least mostly snow?

Usually when/if they tap southern moisture, we'll have a mixed bag in central Indy. I recall several storms in the mid 90s where we were well below freezing (as low as 18F) and forecasted for snow, and it ended up being mostly ice/freezing rain due to a warm layer aloft.

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Totally agree but it's still fun particularly with this model since it was so far out to lunch compared to other models.

Agreed, thats why I'm here, :thumbsup:. It's fun tracking the storms, but man, late nights, less sleep. Hey, we got cheap arizona tea and cheetos man, and of course AM Talk Radio.

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Will temps in Indiana be low enough for this to be all, or at least mostly snow?

Usually when/if they tap southern moisture, we'll have a mixed bag in central Indy. I recall several storms in the mid 90s where we were well below freezing (as low as 18F) and forecasted for snow, and it ended up being mostly ice/freezing rain due to a warm layer aloft.

With the 00z GFS Indy would be all snow and Winter Storm Watch criteria for most of the IND, IWX, GRR, DTX, and western CLE CWA's....but as mentioned earlier it's still a ways out and needs to be sampled well.

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Agreed, thats why I'm here, :thumbsup:. It's fun tracking the storms, but man, late nights, less sleep. Hey, we got cheap arizona tea and cheetos man, and of course AM Talk Radio.

I hear yeah....tomorrow I'll be much the same way on the day off after getting the 4 wheel drive fixed.... Ribeyes, burgers, and chicken on the grill....watch the plasma, and OFF COURSE the models.

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