buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Ok guys and gals recovering from hernia surgery, painful to say the least.... anyways on to our system. It would appear to me that a slightly more Southern solution is the prudent way to go based on what the models have on the upper air progs. But I think we get some type of phase (of course) and as that happens this thing really takes off, and when that occurs it will pull more to the left, we don't have any way of knowing when that occurs at this point- still way to early. But I'd have to say Eastern/Northeastern Mo up thru ORD and Central Lower Michigan is golden quite likely right now but again that zone will wobble around a lot in the coming days. But with such a system deepening rapidly the track of the surface system may not be as critical because as the thing deepens there will be widespread rapid cooling aloft and then surface temps will respond accordingly giving a wide area a decent advisory level snow at least I think. great, so your idea of the more 'southern solution' is a track thru ORD to central MI . Meanwhile my idea of a more southern solution is little rock to lexington.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I still think this is a "wishcast"....the storm will likely track north of there. nothing (or maybe everything), is a wishcast right now....all due respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Keep the center of the storm south of Lk Erie and I'll buy the season tickets myself. What do they cost? 50 bucks? Not even....it's THE LIONS....who haven't won on the road forever....or won forever for that matter....season tickets are only $30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 SSC the Feb 22, 2010 storm brought a very dense blanket of snow to SE MI. 7.7" imby, 6.9" at DTW. It was the 2nd largest storm of the 2009-10 season. Im wondering if maybe you got rain? It was unusual as we rarely get such deep wet snow (usually its powdery at that depth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Not even....it's THE LIONS....who haven't won on the road forever....or won forever for that matter....season tickets are only $30. Okay sarcasm aside they are $30 a game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 great, so your idea of the more 'southern solution' is a track thru ORD to central MI . Meanwhile my idea of a more southern solution is little rock to lexington.... I believe he was talking about the snow swath, not the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Not even....it's THE LIONS....who haven't won on the road forever....or won forever for that matter....season tickets are only $30. Seriously? Wow, that's insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 great, so your idea of the more 'southern solution' is a track thru ORD to central MI . Meanwhile my idea of a more southern solution is little rock to lexington.... your reading comprehension needs work, if his track was through ORD, we would not be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Ok guys and gals recovering from hernia surgery, painful to say the least.... anyways on to our system. It would appear to me that a slightly more Southern solution is the prudent way to go based on what the models have on the upper air progs. But I think we get some type of phase (of course) and as that happens this thing really takes off, and when that occurs it will pull more to the left, we don't have any way of knowing when that occurs at this point- still way to early. But I'd have to say Eastern/Northeastern Mo up thru ORD and Central Lower Michigan is golden quite likely right now but again that zone will wobble around a lot in the coming days. But with such a system deepening rapidly the track of the surface system may not be as critical because as the thing deepens there will be widespread rapid cooling aloft and then surface temps will respond accordingly giving a wide area a decent advisory level snow at least I think. I hope you're wrong....still think a south side PIA to CLE track will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 This model teasing is going to drive me to the madhouse! I miss the days of lake effect in western Michigan. I think Henry M was still riding the coastal storm idea...looks like a lot of those posters are giving up on that idea themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 your reading comprehension needs work, if his track was through ORD, we would not be golden. keep it civil ale, this isn't AP/OT and by the way, since you brought up comprehension, you might want to re-read what he was referrring to regarding 'golden' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 With such a powerful jet diving into this thing from the north, I think phasing tweaks may occur even after the models converge on the general track. This may end up being a case where we see shifting of the main snow band right up until 12-18hrs out. Someone on this board may end up getting pissed at the last minute, and visa versa. Going to make it interesting that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 With such a powerful jet diving into this thing from the north, I think phasing tweaks may occur even after the models converge on the general track. This may end up being a case where we see shifting of the main snow band right up until 12-18hrs out. Someone on this board may end up getting pissed at the last minute, and visa versa. Going to make it interesting that's for sure. so your typical winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 so your typical winter storm. Absolutely not. We never see surprises within 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Is that a low I see in SW OK/NW TX on the 84 hour NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Looks like to me the NAM is probably gonna have a stronger farther nw track then the GFS. GFS hour 90: 1012 in texas NAM hour 84: 1008 near SW OK/N.TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Is that a low I see in SW OK/NW TX on the 84 hour NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Is that a low I see in SW OK/NW TX on the 84 hour NAM? Yep, but it is the 84 hr. NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Is that a low I see in SW OK/NW TX on the 84 hour NAM? That's what I see as well JoMo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Looks like to me the NAM is probably gonna have a stronger farther nw track then the GFS. GFS hour 90: 1012 in texas NAM hour 84: 1008 near SW OK/N.TX Sfc features when the storm is in its embryonic stage can be deceptive I think. At H5, there aren't a ton of differences between the 18z GFS and the 0z NAM. If anything, the NAM sort of looks a little more strung out with its vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 SSC the Feb 22, 2010 storm brought a very dense blanket of snow to SE MI. 7.7" imby, 6.9" at DTW. It was the 2nd largest storm of the 2009-10 season. Im wondering if maybe you got rain? It was unusual as we rarely get such deep wet snow (usually its powdery at that depth). I checked my records. Didn't change to rain but I got dryslotted nicely. 2.4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Sfc features when the storm is in its embryonic stage can be deceptive I think. At H5, there aren't a ton of differences between the 18z GFS and the 0z NAM. If anything, the NAM sort of looks a little more strung out with its vorticity. yup....here's the 90 hr 18zgfs which went pretty far southeast. compare to the nam at 84. Looks to me like the nam would make for a much tougher, or later phase....probably due to the differences with the vortex in canada and as you said the strung out look of the vorticity in the west. then again we are extrapolating the 84 hr nam...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Actually I would argue the NAM is south, there's even less phasing than the 12z GFS at 96hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 yup....here's the 90 hr 18zgfs which went pretty far southeast. compare to the nam at 84. Looks to me like the nam would make for a much tougher, or later phase....probably due to the differences with the vortex in canada and as you said the strung out look of the vorticity in the west. then again we are extrapolating the 84 hr nam...lol Another thing to remember is the different model parametrization....with the NAM having a 12km grid scale compared to the 40km GFS....and the NAM having 60 vertical resolution slices compared to the 48 GFS....the NAM will almost always have a stronger "more detailed" look to it....that's why the GFS has less Taylor Series equations in it's scheme to go out farther....so I agree extrapolating the 84 hours NAM would be iffy....also a lot of the different model ensemble members are in relatively close agreement with the north of the Ohio River track....and I might be wrong but usually the ensemble members rarely agree as much as they are at this forecast range....which doesn't mean anything in itself but yet shouldn't be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 NAM 850 & 500 at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Can I presume that most people here think Henry margusity is going to bust? Realistically, I'm hoping for an 8-10" storm. Would be nice to have more, but want to be realistic. I still fear that we'll get screwed like we did today. Montreal got 10-12" while Ottawa maybe got an inch! After the storm, I'll be anticipating our first air temperature below 0F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 great, so your idea of the more 'southern solution' is a track thru ORD to central MI . Meanwhile my idea of a more southern solution is little rock to lexington.... Well I think the surface reflection will be from the panhandle areas up thru the bootheel into Southern Lower Michigan or Northern Ohio.... the rapid deepening taking place between Northern Arkansas and Northern Ohio/Southern MIchigan. The track you mentioned is about where I'd put the Northern Edge of the heaviest snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 With such a powerful jet diving into this thing from the north, I think phasing tweaks may occur even after the models converge on the general track. This may end up being a case where we see shifting of the main snow band right up until 12-18hrs out. Someone on this board may end up getting pissed at the last minute, and visa versa. Going to make it interesting that's for sure. Completely agree cyclone++++ Thanks for the well wishes everyone. I'm so drugged up so I don't know how active I'll be on here the next few days but I'll try and post my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well I think the surface reflection will be from the panhandle areas up thru the bootheel into Southern Lower Michigan or Northern Ohio.... the rapid deepening taking place between Northern Arkansas and Northern Ohio/Southern MIchigan. The track you mentioned is about where I'd put the Northern Edge of the heaviest snows. ahhh, you didn't specify low track vs. snow shield in your post,....gotcha but you're still way too north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Watch to see where the polar vortex goes...that just might let this thing ride a bit east more than we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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