A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 lulz, wee bit premature. Even the super south 18z GFS brings more than an inch to Madtown...that and it's way too early for tossing around amounts. Me thinks we missed some sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Even the super souh 18z GFS brings more than an inch to Madtown...that and it's way too early for tossing around amounts. Me thinks we missed some sarcasm. Yeah I wouldn't throw it in yet either....still VERY MUCH IN PLAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 well im throwin in the towel. tv sayin an 1" of light snow on sat then wind and cold sunday. In addition to echoing other's sentiments, I will also remind you about last year's December 8-9 storm: in SE Wisconsin we were expecting pretty much all snow up until the last minute when the low ended up tracking right through Milwaukee, giving us as much of a mix as snow, and only a few inches of pure snow while the rest of the state got hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Just a couple of analogs to consider (no particular order or preference)... *December 19th, 2008 *December 23rd-24th, 2004 *January 2nd, 1999 *February 22nd, 2010 *November 30th-December 1st, 2008 Feel free to list anymore or disagree... Where do you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Just a couple of analogs to consider (no particular order or preference)... *December 19th, 2008 *December 23rd-24th, 2004 *January 2nd, 1999 *February 22nd, 2010 *November 30th-December 1st, 2008 Feel free to list anymore or disagree... On the last one, I'm wondering if you mean November 31st-December 1st, 2006. Otherwise, you must not live in or near Wisconsin because I don't remember any of these storms. Some of the big recent storms I remember are the one listed above, February 6, 2008, the one on Good Friday in 2008, and December 8-9, 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 On the last one, I'm wondering if you mean November 31st-December 1st, 2006. There was one in 2008 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 DVN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE LARGE SLUG OF WAVE ENERGY RIDGE-RIDING THE WEST AND THEN DIGGING ACRS THE PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SOUTHWARD PLUNGING SURGE OF UPPER JET ENERGY DOWN TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...AND THEN SPRAWLING OUT ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY AND UP ACRS PORTION OF THE TN AND OH RVR VALLEYS BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. CONCEPTUALLY THIS WOULD FAVOR A FURTHER SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MAIN SFC LOW...WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK AS WELL AS IT/S ASSOCIATED DEF ZONE PRECIP SHIELD POSSIBLY LARGELY MISSING THE DVN CWA JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z RUN GFS IS CLOSES TO THIS CURRENT THINKING WITH IT/S FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE MAIN CYCLONE...BUT EVEN IT STILL CLIPS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO QUARTER OF THE CWA WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEW EURO IS BULLISH WITH AN INVERTED TROF COMPLEX THAT SWEEP ACRS THE CWA OFF MAIN LOW TO THE SOUTH...WITH PRECIP ALONG THIS FOCUSING MECHANISM AND EVENTUAL DEF ZONE UNDER H5 MB LOW ENOUGH FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT WOULD ALSO HAVE ENOUGH LLVL WAA FOR A RAIN-SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHEAST ON SAT. THE NEW GEM IS IN-BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS... BUT THE NOTICEABLE TREND IS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH FROM IT/S PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE CWA WITH BLANKET MODERATE CHC POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT MENTION RAIN OR SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD ON SAT. THE NEXT 1-3 MODEL RUNS SHOULD START TO TELL THE SORT OF THE PROBABLY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AN TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS AS THEY GET A HANDLE ON EXTENT OF DIGGING UPPER JET ENERGY AND TRANSLATE IT TO THE SFC. ARCTIC SURGE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO COMMENCE WITH FRIGID DENSE AIRMASS PLUNGING DOWN THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST OF OF CANADA LATE SAT NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS TRANSITION SHOULD RESULT IN BRISK WINDS... AND DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT AND GRADIENT OFF DEEPENING SUB- 1000 MB SFC CYCLONE AND HIGH-LOW PRESSURE INTERACTION...COULD BE A CASE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COMBINED WITH ANY SNOWFALL...THERE COULD BE THE NEED FOR A HEADLINE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT MESSAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Just a couple of analogs to consider (no particular order or preference)... *December 19th, 2008 *December 23rd-24th, 2004 *January 2nd, 1999 *February 22nd, 2010 *November 30th-December 1st, 2008 Feel free to list anymore or disagree... I'll take this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Where do you live? Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The down period between models runs, the other one I am asleep. I hate this hobby. a week of build up. even if I get hit by the time the snow falls I am done. Give me 3 inches and I am ready to find the next system to track. I am starting to think the chase is is better then winning the prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 just a little sarcasm. i personally think it will track closer to the southern tip of lake michigan. seems to happen more than not with these storms, i have no science behind it, but sure seems the low always turns to the lake and ends up 50 mi further north than predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Even the super south 18z GFS brings more than an inch to Madtown...that and it's way too early for tossing around amounts. Me thinks we missed some sarcasm. possibly...but there are a lot of weenies in the woodworks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 just a little sarcasm. i personally think it will track closer to the southern tip of lake michigan. seems to happen more than not with these storms, i have no science behind it, but sure seems the low always turns to the lake and ends up 50 mi further north than predicted. Gotchya. Aleking's deconstruction of your post FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The down period between models runs, the other one I am asleep. I hate this hobby. a week of build up. even if I get hit by the time the snow falls I am done. Give me 3 inches and I am ready to find the next system to track. I am starting to think the chase is is better then winning the prize. Yeah, usually by the time the event actually happens I'm too damn tired to enjoy it from only sleeping 3 hours every night in order to see all the model runs. Then it's on to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Just a couple of analogs to consider (no particular order or preference)... *December 19th, 2008 - LIKE IT *December 23rd-24th, 2004 - LIKE IT *January 2nd, 1999 - LOVE IT *February 22nd, 2010 - I DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT THIS IS *November 30th-December 1st, 2008 - BAH, THAT WAS A HEARTBREAKER Feel free to list anymore or disagree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 possibly...but there are a lot of weenies in the woodworks. watch the 00z model suite come north and have KC to Central Michigan track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TruePatriot Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 After back to back 10 inch snow storms, I am glad this one is going to miss MSP. I will take the arctic air in exchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 watch the 00z model suite come north and have KC to Central Michigan track That would surely suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 That would surely suck. I hope you didn't jinx me....if you did will have to buy you LIONS season tickets....and FORCE YOU to watch every minute of every game....but I think the track will be close to what I stated earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I have warmed up to the idea that even though half of this storm is likely to be rain here, there is enough evidence right now that even a couple backside inches of snow combined with the high wind threat could make this a fun storm. For those that stay 50% or more frozen, could be a very memorable event. I'm more optimistic than that right now but things could change. But yeah, even if we miss the really heavy band of snow, the snow/wind combo should be exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Ok guys and gals recovering from hernia surgery, painful to say the least.... anyways on to our system. It would appear to me that a slightly more Southern solution is the prudent way to go based on what the models have on the upper air progs. But I think we get some type of phase (of course) and as that happens this thing really takes off, and when that occurs it will pull more to the left, we don't have any way of knowing when that occurs at this point- still way to early. But I'd have to say Eastern/Northeastern Mo up thru ORD and Central Lower Michigan is golden quite likely right now but again that zone will wobble around a lot in the coming days. But with such a system deepening rapidly the track of the surface system may not be as critical because as the thing deepens there will be widespread rapid cooling aloft and then surface temps will respond accordingly giving a wide area a decent advisory level snow at least I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 with the 0z NAM going out to 12z saturday we will get to see where it wants to place the sfc low out in the plains on this run...hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Chances are slowly increasing for a "Winter Bomb" here in northern Ohio. What I mean by "Winter Bomb" is lots of snow and possibly near blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I hope you didn't jinx me....if you did will have to buy you LIONS season tickets....and FORCE YOU to watch every minute of every game....but I think the track will be close to what I stated earlier. Keep the center of the storm south of Lk Erie and I'll buy the season tickets myself. What do they cost? 50 bucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Chances are slowly increasing for a "Winter Bomb" here in northern Ohio. What I mean by "Winter Bomb" is lots of snow and possibly near blizzard conditions. I'm going to download this map and the Henry M. one. I hate being pessimistic but I think come Sunday I'll be looking upon them wistfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Ok guys and gals recovering from hernia surgery, painful to say the least.... anyways on to our system. It would appear to me that a slightly more Southern solution is the prudent way to go based on what the models have on the upper air progs. But I think we get some type of phase (of course) and as that happens this thing really takes off, and when that occurs it will pull more to the left, we don't have any way of knowing when that occurs at this point- still way to early. But I'd have to say Eastern/Northeastern Mo up thru ORD and Central Lower Michigan is golden quite likely right now but again that zone will wobble around a lot in the coming days. But with such a system deepening rapidly the track of the surface system may not be as critical because as the thing deepens there will be widespread rapid cooling aloft and then surface temps will respond accordingly giving a wide area a decent advisory level snow at least I think. Good to hear your input and feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Ok guys and gals recovering from hernia surgery, painful to say the least.... anyways on to our system. It would appear to me that a slightly more Southern solution is the prudent way to go based on what the models have on the upper air progs. But I think we get some type of phase (of course) and as that happens this thing really takes off, and when that occurs it will pull more to the left, we don't have any way of knowing when that occurs at this point- still way to early. But I'd have to say Eastern/Northeastern Mo up thru ORD and Central Lower Michigan is golden quite likely right now but again that zone will wobble around a lot in the coming days. But with such a system deepening rapidly the track of the surface system may not be as critical because as the thing deepens there will be widespread rapid cooling aloft and then surface temps will respond accordingly giving a wide area a decent advisory level snow at least I think. always love your thoughts, feel better man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Does anyone think the tropical wave over Florida will have an impact on this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Just a couple of analogs to consider (no particular order or preference)... *December 19th, 2008 *December 23rd-24th, 2004 *January 2nd, 1999 *February 22nd, 2010 *November 30th-December 1st, 2008 Feel free to list anymore or disagree... Totals at DTW *December 19th, 2008 - 7.9" *December 23rd-24th, 2004- 8.9" *January 2nd, 1999- 11.3" *February 22nd, 2010- 6.9" *November 30th-December 1st, 2008- 0.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Chances are slowly increasing for a "Winter Bomb" here in northern Ohio. What I mean by "Winter Bomb" is lots of snow and possibly near blizzard conditions. I still think this is a "wishcast"....the storm will likely track north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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