Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event?

[A-L-E-K]

Impressive jet on the back side of the trough.

I'm going with Oceanstwx on this one, that does not look like a setup for a half assed low.

FWIW new NWS hazard map not in agreement with Henry

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.gif

[The_Global_Warmer]

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE LARGE SLUG OF WAVE

ENERGY RIDGE-RIDING THE WEST AND THEN DIGGING ACRS THE PLAINS AND

PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON

PLACEMENT AND SOUTHWARD PLUNGING SURGE OF UPPER JET ENERGY DOWN TO

THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...AND THEN SPRAWLING OUT ACRS THE LOWER MS

RVR VALLEY AND UP ACRS PORTION OF THE TN AND OH RVR VALLEYS BY LATE

SAT OR SAT NIGHT. CONCEPTUALLY THIS WOULD FAVOR A FURTHER SOUTHWARD

TREND IN THE MAIN SFC LOW...WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK AS WELL

AS IT/S ASSOCIATED DEF ZONE PRECIP SHIELD POSSIBLY LARGELY MISSING

THE DVN CWA JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z RUN GFS IS

CLOSES TO THIS CURRENT THINKING WITH IT/S FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF

THE MAIN CYCLONE...BUT EVEN IT STILL CLIPS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO

QUARTER OF THE CWA WITH AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS LATE SAT

INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEW EURO IS BULLISH WITH AN INVERTED TROF

COMPLEX THAT SWEEP ACRS THE CWA OFF MAIN LOW TO THE SOUTH...WITH

PRECIP ALONG THIS FOCUSING MECHANISM AND EVENTUAL DEF ZONE

UNDER H5 MB LOW ENOUGH FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS INTO SUNDAY

MORNING. IT WOULD ALSO HAVE ENOUGH LLVL WAA FOR A RAIN-SNOW MIX IN

THE SOUTHEAST ON SAT. THE NEW GEM IS IN-BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS...

BUT THE NOTICEABLE TREND IS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH FROM IT/S PREVIOUS

RUNS. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE CWA WITH BLANKET MODERATE CHC POPS

FOR MAINLY SNOW SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT MENTION RAIN OR SNOW MIX IN

THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD ON SAT. THE NEXT 1-3 MODEL RUNS SHOULD START

TO TELL THE SORT OF THE PROBABLY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AN TRACK OVER

THE NEXT 24-36 HRS AS THEY GET A HANDLE ON EXTENT OF DIGGING UPPER

JET ENERGY AND TRANSLATE IT TO THE SFC. ARCTIC SURGE BEHIND THIS

SYSTEM TO COMMENCE WITH FRIGID DENSE AIRMASS PLUNGING DOWN THE

PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST OF OF CANADA LATE SAT NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY

ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS TRANSITION SHOULD RESULT IN BRISK WINDS...

AND DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT AND GRADIENT OFF DEEPENING SUB-

1000 MB SFC CYCLONE AND HIGH-LOW PRESSURE INTERACTION...COULD BE A

CASE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COMBINED WITH

ANY SNOWFALL...THERE COULD BE THE NEED FOR A HEADLINE WITH A

SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT MESSAGE.

DVN

[patrick7032]

Boldness. Lows tracking into southern lower michigan usually mean good things around these parts.

A few choice words from LOT

I would normally agree with WDM....but not on this one....yeah a southern MI track is great for the Wisconsin people, but with the strength of that high building in I question it....still think a PAH to se or north central Ohio track will verify or a PIA to CLE track....somewhere in the "cone".

[Nelson]

That 500mb map is ideal for cyclogenesis. Very broad and strong diffluence zone ahead, and the left front quad of the jet streak plowing into the trough axis, which is already starting to go neutral tilt. This progged storm looks like an idea candidate for Sutcliffe-Pettersen self-development process, which will cause a storm like this to bomb, mature quickly, and cause it to cut left pretty hard. (Self-development refers to a large-scale positive feedback process, which in favorable conditions, can help a cyclone deepen rapidly. To put it simply... DPVA induces a wave -> tightens the thermal gradient -> deepens the upper trough due to increased CAA ---> increases DPVA ---> strengthens the low -> tightens gradient ---> etc... eventually this is limited by the upper low outrunning the surface low and friction.)

Ditto what Alek said - good stuff right there...

[KeenerWx]

I'd rather know at this moment that we have no potential, whatsoever, for a significant snow.

With finals early next week, this thing is going to drain a lot of my attention. So, the longer we stay in the game, the more I will hate this thing. Unless, of course, we do get a significant snow. Then it was worth it all in the end.

However, we are riding a thin line right now.

I'd feel real good if I were in Northern Illinois.

[B-Rent]

<br /><br />

Yes please vote for me when I run for Emperor. <img src='http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/lmaosmiley.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> Just kidding of course. I didn't work today, but come on, do you expect us to pretend we're all knowing or be up front and say that due to the uncertainties, it can be either way. I prefer to be up-front myself.<br />

I was just poking fun at the simpleness of the wording. I understand the reason and need for it. Just sounds open ended enough to be in an October TV ad.

"Vote for Euro or it will rain, even though it might still snow!"

Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk

[patrick7032]

I'm going with Oceanstwx on this one, that does not look like a setup for a half assed low.

FWIW new NWS hazard map not in agreement with Henry

http://www.cpc.noaa....ats/threats.gif

TOTALLY AGREE....GFS has as much a clue as Matt Millen.

[BowMeHunter]

I'm going with Oceanstwx on this one, that does not look like a setup for a half assed low.

FWIW new NWS hazard map not in agreement with Henry

http://www.cpc.noaa....ats/threats.gif

That map almost looks like it expanded the heavy snow boundary NW a pinch compared to yesterday? or I have the weenie goggles on

[OceanStWx]

I'll get Money at least 30 inches by Christmas...bank it...if anything i get Saukville up there with his snow making machine

LSE doesn't have a clue either...

Actually that was ARX via DVN today.

[A-L-E-K]

That map almost looks like it expanded the heavy snow boundary NW a pinch compared to yesterday? or I have the weenie goggles on

it did but those long range hazard maps are often out to lunch. That said can't help but smile being under the "much below temps", "high winds" and "heavy snow" circles all at the same time

[A-L-E-K]

I'd rather know at this moment that we have no potential, whatsoever, for a significant snow.

With finals early next week, this thing is going to drain a lot of my attention. So, the longer we stay in the game, the more I will hate this thing. Unless, of course, we do get a significant snow. Then it was worth it all in the end.

However, we are riding a thin line right now.

I'd feel real good if I were in Northern Illinois.

My optimism meter is at 7 out of 10, pretty high for 100 hrs out.

[wisconsinwx]

it did but those long range hazard maps are often out to lunch. That said can't help but smile being under the "much below temps", "high winds" and "heavy snow" circles all at the same time

You have that right!

[Chicago WX]

My optimism meter is at 7 out of 10, pretty high for 100 hrs out.

See what the Illini are doing to you...getting you all positive about snowstorms and stuff.

[A-L-E-K]

See what the Illini are doing to you...getting you all positive about snowstorms and stuff.

Remember the snowstorm last year during the big Wisconsin road win? I'm pretty sure there's a direct relationship between Illinois' on court success and IMBY snowfall, it's science. I'm pessimistic enough to weenie out once in a while.

[KeenerWx]

it did but those long range hazard maps are often out to lunch. That said can't help but smile being under the "much below temps", "high winds" and "heavy snow" circles all at the same time

7/10 is pretty good.

Mine is about 3/10. Haha. Still fun to watch, though.

[A-L-E-K]

I would normally agree with WDM....but not on this one....yeah a southern MI track is great for the Wisconsin people, but with the strength of that high building in I question it....still think a PAH to se or north central Ohio track will verify or a PIA to CLE track....somewhere in the "cone".

You're very much in line with the HPC's thinking which is probably pretty solid.

[Chicago WX]

Remember the snowstorm last year during the wisconsin win. I'm pretty sure there's a direct relationship between Illinois on court success and IMBY snowfall, it's science.

Hmm you're right. Last Saturday too with the Gonzaga game...not that it was a huge amount of snow IYBY, but still. Might be a method to your madness.

[OceanStWx]

You're very much in line with the HPC's thinking which is probably pretty solid.

I agree too, considering the spread right now, middle of the road with the ensemble members is the best play.

[Chicago WX]

I have warmed up to the idea that even though half of this storm is likely to be rain here, there is enough evidence right now that even a couple backside inches of snow combined with the high wind threat could make this a fun storm. For those that stay 50% or more frozen, could be a very memorable event.

[patrick7032]

You're very much in line with the HPC's thinking which is probably pretty solid.

Good to know....had not checked that site yet....but with that track a lot of people on here from oceanwx to me would get it....including the northern ILL and WI folks....if we can't give everybody the snow at least a lot of us would get it.

[A-L-E-K]

I have warmed up to the idea that even though half of this storm is likely to be rain here, there is enough evidence right now that even a couple backside inches of snow combined with the high wind threat could make this a fun storm. For those that stay 50% or more frozen, could be a very memorable event.

It's not going to take much snow with those progged winds to make sunday pretty wild for da bears.

[The_Global_Warmer]

that track would help most of us except the Ohio crew

[JoMo]

Some 18z GFS Ensembles are even farther south.

18z 108

120

[Thundersnow12]

well after a long day of school and work I'm finally home to catch up on things.

As someone said which I agree with, I'm liking a track from north of STL across to IN and then northwest OH. Its going to come down to how the high pressure in the southwest acts as well as the PV across canada and if/how much phasing occurs. some serious wind fields on the backside of this thing should make for an interesting bears game sunday afternoon and wouldn't mind seeing some heavy snow flying as well.

JB can be good sometimes but you never know till after the event so him saying CHI doesn't mean that much to me. When it comes down to it, I think there is going to be a big storm, with all the dynamics it has with it and wondering how the sfc low would just keep trucking on east and not make the turn to the northeast like most systems seem to do.

We are going to see the models keep flip flopping until this thing comes onshore and into the RAOB network. I think it was feb of 2007 but i could be wrong, the models were so bad handling it, they had it going way southeast of here and then had it nailing us with heavy snow but it actually missed us and giving us alot of rain and giving IA to the to the dells the big snow. anyways, still going to be fun to watch

[kerbs]

With my daughter's wedding reception Saturday PM, I'm going to hope for a slower solution, and more SNOW by Sunday PM. Her and the Fiancé will be flying to Jamaica from CMH on Sunday morning....I'm looking for the best time that they should leave west central Oho to Columbus....

[snowstormcanuck]

With my daughter's wedding reception Saturday PM, I'm going to hope for a slower solution, and more SNOW by Sunday PM. Her and the Fiancé will be flying to Jamaica from CMH on Sunday morning....I'm looking for the best time that they should leave west central Oho to Columbus....

Is it me, or is there a link for the definition of fiance embedded in this post?

Oh, and congrats on your daughter getting hitched.

[A-L-E-K]

well after a long day of school and work I'm finally home to catch up on things.

As someone said which I agree with, I'm liking a track from north of STL across to IN and then northwest OH. Its going to come down to how the high pressure in the southwest acts as well as the PV across canada and if/how much phasing occurs. some serious wind fields on the backside of this thing should make for an interesting bears game sunday afternoon and wouldn't mind seeing some heavy snow flying as well.

JB can be good sometimes but you never know till after the event so him saying CHI doesn't mean that much to me. When it comes down to it, I think there is going to be a big storm, with all the dynamics it has with it and wondering how the sfc low would just keep trucking on east and not make the turn to the northeast like most systems seem to do.

We are going to see the models keep flip flopping until this thing comes onshore and into the RAOB network. I think it was feb of 2007 but i could be wrong, the models were so bad handling it, they had it going way southeast of here and then had it nailing us with heavy snow but it actually missed us and giving us alot of rain and giving IA to the to the dells the big snow. anyways, still going to be fun to watch

We've had shift from snow to miss wide south to rain and vice versa many times.

Is it me, or is there a link for the definition of fiance embedded in this post?

Oh, and congrats on your daughter getting hitched.

there is, i feel like i've mashed things together and had random word turn into links before as well.

[MadTown]

well im throwin in the towel. tv sayin an 1" of light snow on sat then wind and cold sunday.

[snowstormcanuck]

well im throwin in the towel. tv sayin an 1" of light snow on sat then wind and cold sunday.

lulz, wee bit premature.

[Powerball]

Just a couple of analogs to consider (no particular order or preference)...

*December 19th, 2008

*December 23rd-24th, 2004

*January 2nd, 1999

*February 22nd, 2010

*November 30th-December 1st, 2008

Feel free to list anymore or disagree...