Nick Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Hey im new to all of the weather models etc and im still learning, What does it look like for Milwaukee wi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Hey im new to all of the weather models etc and im still learning, What does it look like for Milwaukee wi Welcome! What part of MKE are you in? Only thing that is for sure is the sun will rise, Lake Michigan will be to our east and dry air is one SOB living here. If I had my choice the clipper misses north and weak leaving room for this storm/threat to come north. What I think will happen ATM... Clipper is a Jipper here and the 2nd threat ends up no big deal for us and is a progressive event where the real snow noise is in SNE and the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Can't help but be excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 18z GFS misses the phase...Lakes cutter cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Can't help but be excited. SE trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 18z GFS misses the phase...Lakes cutter cancel? Probably 8 times out of 10 when the GFS does what it's doing, it ends up moving toward the other solutions eventually. Maybe this will be a time when it doesn't, but I wouldn't bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Probably 8 times out of 10 when the GFS does what it's doing, it ends up moving toward the other solutions eventually. Maybe this will be a time when it doesn't, but I wouldn't bet on it. I gotta find a glimmer of hope somewhere though right? Looks like the DGEX is on my side also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I gotta find a glimmer of hope somewhere though right? Looks like the DGEX is on my side also I think DGEX uses GFS initialization data, so they're probably both suffering from the same problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 I think DGEX uses GFS initialization data, so they're probably both suffering from the same problem. I'm pretty sure it's GFS data on the NAM grid scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The GFS handled the last system very poorly in this time range. It caught on a few days after the GEM and Euro, so we may be seeing the same thing happen this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Can't help but be excited. First call >1/3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Think I read somewhere the GEM ensembles are way east. The Euro is garbage in this time frame. GFS is nothing huge.. Something to watch but nothing for me to get excited either way about. Clipper before the Big Dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Despite what the GFS shows tonight, if the GEM and Euro show something similar to their 12z runs I'll definitely be leaning very heavily in their direction. Maybe we'll get lucky and all of them show something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Larry Cosgrove is going with a "Panhandle Hooker B" with a track from OKC to Paducah to Dayton, OH to Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Larry Cosgrove is going with a "Panhandle Hooker B" with a track from OKC to Paducah to Dayton, OH to Montreal. So he loves the Euro pretty much it sounds like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The models aren't perfectly consistent about what happens after clipper #1, which is forecast to go through Michigan in 4-5 days. In the 6-7 day time period, we are fairly sure the East will be in a generalized trough, the West will be in a generalized ridge. That means that our upcoming system that we are discussing may take on the appearance of a clipper. The low pressure center may go to Missouri and Kentucky, meaning it is farther south than a clipper, and may gain more moisture, more like a Colorado low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Larry Cosgrove is going with a "Panhandle Hooker B" with a track from OKC to Paducah to Dayton, OH to Montreal. i'm feeling better about a nice hit j/k actually this is from his newsletter last evening....apparently that euro run must have convinced him otherwise The look of the map suggests a decent lake-effect snow event in MI, ON, W NY, W PA, OH and IN and some very chilly temperatures reaching into FL. But it would be a stretch to say major snowfall amounts are likely with such a 500MB configuration in mid-December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 DT thinks this is an Ohio Valley Storm too - http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/Thisweekinwx/dec5.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I'm pretty sure it's GFS data on the NAM grid scale. So essentially a higher resolution version of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 So essentially a higher resolution version of the GFS. I've always considered it an extended version of the NAM. http://www.personal.psu.edu/adb241/eWallTutorial/models/dgex.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I've always considered it an extended version of the NAM. http://www.personal....models/dgex.htm Well, if it's based on GFS data it's probably more similar to the GFS, although the higher resolution may give it some NAM like characteristics (ie, excelling at progging the southward extent of shallow arctic air, LES, other mesoscale stuff). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The GFS looks like it's going to trend more towards the EURO this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Well, this is new. Check out the buckle in the west @ 126 The 12z run looked different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Well, if it's based on GFS data it's probably more similar to the GFS, although the higher resolution may give it some NAM like characteristics (ie, excelling at progging the southward extent of shallow arctic air, LES, other mesoscale stuff). I'm just going to call it the GFS from the NAM's point of view. It's hasn't been right yet, so there's no point in going too far in-depth about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 We got cyclogenesis at 120-126 over the High Plains. Let's see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Definitely going to be a big departure from the 12/18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The buckle means that it is trending towards the CMC/NAVY...it will probably dig the trough more south and pose more of a texas panhandle storm Well, this is new. Check out the buckle in the west @ 126 The 12z run looked different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 The buckle means that it is trending towards the CMC/NAVY...it will probably dig the trough more south and pose more of a texas panhandle storm Why even mention the Lolgaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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