patrick7032 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Grand Rapids disco explains why they like the Euro This sounds like the writings of Bill Marino....He makes some good points if it is him....will have to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 i can't see the Euro, but am I correct in guessing that it would imply yet another lakes cutter with snow for Minnesota and rain for Ontario and Quebec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Not that it matters, but DGEX is way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 This sounds like the writings of Bill Marino....He makes some good points if it is him....will have to check. Yup it is him....very knowledgeable guy....when I interned there I could listen to him for hours....he is usually MONEY too....great that means with the low going over southern lower I'll get the mixed precip most likely....backtracking the 500 and 250mb maps it looks like they energy starts to come ashore by the 12z sounding Friday. Maybe we can all get a good dumping out of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Does a track from So. Ill to Detroit work for you. (unscrupulous rhetorical weenie post) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 i can't see the Euro, but am I correct in guessing that it would imply yet another lakes cutter with snow for Minnesota and rain for Ontario and Quebec? Even with its further north track, EURO still occludes this baby pretty quickly. At your location, you might stay all snow. At least thickness/850 temps would indicate that. Have no idea what EURO 2m temps are like, but given Ottawa's propensity to get CADed, you might do pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Given the wind fields that the GFS is progging (and I'm assuming other models aren't much different in that regard), this looks like it would have the potential to produce a fairly large area of blizzard/near blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yes please vote for me when I run for Emperor. Just kidding of course. I didn't work today, but come on, do you expect us to pretend we're all knowing or be up front and say that due to the uncertainties, it can be either way. I prefer to be up-front myself. Yeah I'm not sure what you guys are supposed to say...or any office for that matter right now. It truly is a wait and see thing right now, and it'll probably only get more difficult when trying to hone in on changeovers, etc as we get into the short range. I wish you all good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Ok 18z GFS...no funny business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Ok 18z GFS...no funny business. Don't give it too much credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Given the wind fields that the GFS is progging (and I'm assuming other models aren't much different in that regard), this looks like it would have the potential to produce a fairly large area of blizzard/near blizzard conditions. That's why somewhere earlier in this thread I saw progs for Grissom with 12-18 inches of snow with 40 mph winds which could certainly be J.B. "life-threatening." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I have major sympathy for the people writing FD's now they are basically weather celebrities. A met told me they were never meant for the public masses and he never thought the weather world would get like this. For every one of us here there is 50 paying as close attention with there mouth shut. multiple 12z models and ensembles show a blizzard here. How do you write that this is possible, while saying we might also see all rain. without confusion. The public majority not as versed on how these met offices work will key in on BLIZZARD. And run with it. slippery slope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 lol at the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Ok 18z GFS...no funny business. Weaker and farther east (and a hair bit south) of 12z through 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I have major sympathy for the people writing FD's now they are basically weather celebrities. A met told me they were never meant for the public masses and he never thought the weather world would get like this. For every one of us here there is 50 paying as close attention with there mouth shut. multiple 12z models and ensembles show a blizzard here. How do you write that this is possible, while saying we might also see all rain. without confusion. The public majority not as versed on how these met offices work will key in on BLIZZARD. And run with it. slippery slope And part of the problem with them becoming a public product is that they can't be too technical and are rigid in format, in order to make them easy to understand. I think it's a shame, but I'm not paid to make those decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Gotta think the euro makes a play tonight away from its - moneyman throwing piles of monopoly money in the air after each run congrats him.. Normally the Euro won't run with a wrong solution 4 runs in a row.. It will normally correct itself faster than that IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Weaker and farther east (and a hair bit south) of 12z through 114 Brought the jet energy back south again, and misses a more phased 12z solution. Hence, a weaker, more easterly low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Gotta think the euro makes a play tonight away from its - moneyman throwing piles of monopoly money in the air after each run congrats him.. Normally the Euro won't run with a wrong solution 4 runs in a row.. It will normally correct itself faster than that IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Given the wind fields that the GFS is progging (and I'm assuming other models aren't much different in that regard), this looks like it would have the potential to produce a fairly large area of blizzard/near blizzard conditions. Obviously there's more to it than just looking at winds at 925 mb or whatever as you need to determine mixing depth/efficiency, but looking at that and comparing it to a couple previous blizzards/near blizzards (namely 1/2/99 and 2/13/07), the 12z GFS was progging stronger winds at that level for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Weaker and farther east (and a hair bit south) of 12z through 114 Yup, and I don't mind. It might be unfounded, but it just seems like last minute NW shifts are more common than SE shifts, so anything but trending towards the EURO is fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Gotta think the euro makes a play tonight away from its - moneyman throwing piles of monopoly money in the air after each run congrats him.. Normally the Euro won't run with a wrong solution 4 runs in a row.. It will normally correct itself faster than that IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yup, and I don't mind. It might be unfounded, but it just seems like last minute NW shifts are more common than SE shifts, so anything but trending towards the EURO is fine with me. Something about 175kt jet doesn't scream meandering 1000mb low to me. It really just digs the trough until the coast, then it cuts. Dropping 2 mb/hr at that point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'll get Money at least 30 inches by Christmas...bank it...if anything i get Saukville up there with his snow making machine SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MODERATE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW GOING...BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS BOTH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND IF IT DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH ACROSS ILLINOIS...OR AN EQUALLY HIGH CHANCE OF MISSING THE CWA TO THE SOUTH COMPLETELY... LSE doesn't have a clue either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Something about 175kt jet doesn't scream meandering 1000mb low to me. It really just digs the trough until the coast, then it cuts. Dropping 2 mb/hr at that point though. What would be the other solution? Bombing out and moving NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Pulling out the weenie card, but here is Henry M's Map LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Money- We going to need tractors to plow us out? I'm stocking up on liquor, dirty magazines and cigarettes just in case. I'm in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Grand Rapids disco explains why they like the Euro THE BOTTOM LINE TO ALL OF THIS IS THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SYSTEMWILL LIKELY TRACK OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF SUNDAY. Boldness. Lows tracking into southern lower michigan usually mean good things around these parts. A few choice words from LOT IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF PRECIPINITIALLY NO MATTER WHAT SOLUTION IS FOLLOWED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Pulling out the weenie card, but here is Henry M's Map LOL Oh geez...him and his Big Daddy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Pulling out the weenie card, but here is Henry M's Map LOL Damn you Margusity! My death knell hath been sounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Impressive jet on the back side of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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