TheWeatherPimp Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Granted based off the GFS, but here's the FIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 i dont know what the Euro is seeing, but it must be seeing something becasue it has cut the storm towards detroit multiple runs now so its unlikely to be a fluke outlier. to me, it seems just like a stronger faster phase, and the lack of any sort of important blocking to the north at first glance. however of note, is that the thermal profiles in terms of thicknesses and 850s arent all that different for the OV and eastern lakes, and probably portions of the MW back throu chicago/WI (but i havent checked closely enough), compared to the GFS and GEM. its the surface location and occlusion that is quite different it seems. in addition, what the Euro does with the storm AFTER it reaches then lakes, in terms of a secondary and tilt of the trough as it heads east and speed of such... those aspects have varied substantially in consecutive runs. therefore, the euro is not even sold on itself, as any model shouldnt be at this range. now whether the euro is right, hard to say its wrong, but more likely a blend of the models is going to be correct as i do not think the phase will be that strong based on how these things tend to play out.... and a suspect occlusion. im still not even in my own personal window for assessing a storms existence, we still have another 24 hours to go for that, even though all models are signalling. if it still there then and strongly signalled, i think we are looking at likely a MAJOR winter storm towards the lower lakes with weak redevelopment (too much energy in the MW for strong) and then the system and shifts east over the lower lakes/northeast with bagginess. i do think that JB loves to hype, but i could very much see this as being a very intense storm for the MW that is undermodeled. as for the eastern OV and eastern lakes, i think the lack of blocking, cold air, and occlusive processes will dampen its effects, thought it will still be a major storm with not quite the ferocity it has further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 From Gil Sebenste at NIU: Saturday and Sunday...well, the Polar and subtropical jet streams will phase and produce a big low pressure system as they do. But when and where this exactly happens is the big unknown, and that directly affects the track of the low, and its intensity while it affects us. There's little doubt it will be a major system...not the monster we saw a month ago, but very intense nonetheless. And it will drop down Arctic air into our area for the first time early next week. That we know. What we don't know is the track, how much we'll get, and in what form. The GFS is out to lunch, because we see it phasing the jet streams at the wrong time and sending the low down into Tennessee. It's wrong, and climatologically it's way far south. Then there's the European model, which tracks it right over DeKalb and I-88 into Chicago on Saturday. That brings us first maybe a little snow, then freezing rain, then rain, then snow with a flash freeze on Saturday. Who to believe? Neither, right now. This thing is out in the Pacific, in a low data area. Methinks the European is somewhat too far north, and the GFS model is way too far south, while the Canadian Canadian model taking it through central Illinois might be the best call, and climatologically, it's close. But again, until Thursday, this thing is in no-man's land, but be prepared for something ugly, spelled U-G-L-Y this weekend. Sunday should just be awful, with very cold air moving in on 40 MPH wind gusts, the GFS and European say it could go as high as 50 MPH in gusts. Blowing and drifting snow...nasty. Sunday, plan on spending it at home or only with local travel...and if it isn't as nasty, count your blessings. Look for highs in the lower and maybe middle 30s on Saturday, and then free-falling on Sunday into the single digits with 40 MPH wind gusts from the north. Lake effect snow in the Chicago area into northwest Indiana could really be big with this one, if you have travel plans around the Great Lakes this weekend. I believe Gil S. on these matters, it makes sense. DT was on the radio show, saying the models won't be viable till Wednesday night at the earliest. Especially with the Pacific Coast sampling yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Looking like the storm center could pass right over central Ohio this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Appreciate the thoughts OL. Don't be a stranger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 LOL at IND's AFD: LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM HPC GUIDANCE...AS ENORMOUS SPREAD AND MODEL INCONSISTENCY IN THE EXTENDED LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...OR MOSTLY RAIN POINT OF GENERAL AGREEMENT IS A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS TO GO ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. Sometimes I wonder if politicians staff our office. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Does a track from So. Ill to Detroit work for you. (unscrupulous rhetorical weenie post) My thoughts this morning were somewhere just north of STL to south of DTW. For now... Obligatory comment about how the first system will affect baroclinicity and the u/a isn't being sampled yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 With the winds this thing may have back on the back side of the low, could get awful interesting for whatever locations pick up more then a couple inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 From IWX: TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL MANY TIMING/TRACK ISSUES WITH BOTH THE MID/UPPER FEATURES AND THE SFC/850 LOW BETWEEN THE MODELS. OVERALL.. A TIGHTER CLUSTER HAS EMERGED WRT SFC LOW WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTING SOMEWHAT SOUTH BUT STILL MOVING THE LOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE THE GFS/GEM RETURN TO AN OHIO RIVER/SOUTHERN INDIANA TRACK. BIG IMPLICATIONS WITH PTYPE/AMOUNTS/BEGIN AND END TIMES BASED ON THIS WIDESPREAD GUIDANCE AND WHILE WARY OF EWD BIAS THERES BEEN NO SHIFT IN THE 12Z CYCLE TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH SUCH VARIANCE REMAINING BETWEEN SOLNS. AS SUCH WILL STICK WITH AN ONSET OF MULTIPLE PTYPE WORDING TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW WITH THE SAME TIMING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRUTALLY COLD AIRMASS STILL PROGGED TO INVADE THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS IN GOOD SHAPE AS LAKE EFFECT WOULD RETURN AND WANE BEYOND MONDAY GIVEN PRESENT MODEL OUTLOOK FOR WINDS DIRECTION...WHICH IS NEEDLESS TO SAY A BIG HEDGE 7 DAYS OUT. MEX GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE TEENS MONDAY AND IF SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS PREVAIL FOR WEEKEND SYSTEM AND FRESH SNOW COVER ADDS TO WHAT IS ALREADY ON THE GROUND...THAT COULD BE OPTIMISTIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 ANYWAYS DTX MIGHT BE BUYING THE EURO I GUESS.. MY ZONE FORECAST Friday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 24. Saturday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Saturday Night: Rain, possibly mixed with snow. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Sunday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy and blustery, with a low around 10. Monday: Partly sunny and blustery, with a high near 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I know every time there is a storm that is close but looks north of here I always say to myself perhaps there will be a big shift once this thing gets onshore. But i can't remember a time when the storm get onshore that there was a huge change. Is this a really valid argument? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I know every time there is a storm that is close but looks north of here I always say to myself perhaps there will be a big shift once this thing gets onshore. But i can't remember a time when the storm get onshore that there was a huge change. Is this a really valid argument? Depends on your definition of huge change. The last clipper was looking like a slam dunk advisory that came into the u/a network and became a concern for warning criteria (which verified in more than one county). Operationally and in public perception that was a pretty big change for our CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I know every time there is a storm that is close but looks north of here I always say to myself perhaps there will be a big shift once this thing gets onshore. But i can't remember a time when the storm get onshore that there was a huge change. Is this a really valid argument? No doubt and shifts both ways. I'm sure some of the others can explain the strengths/weaknesses of the upper air sampling net work better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I know every time there is a storm that is close but looks north of here I always say to myself perhaps there will be a big shift once this thing gets onshore. But i can't remember a time when the storm get onshore that there was a huge change. Is this a really valid argument? I think it does matter if there is no consensus between all the models. It will also depend on how and where this storm develops. The Euro wouldn't mature the storm until it reaches Chicago, while the GFS would mature it over Kansas/Missouri. When the storm is sampled, there will be more of a consensus and the track will be narrowed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I know every time there is a storm that is close but looks north of here I always say to myself perhaps there will be a big shift once this thing gets onshore. But i can't remember a time when the storm get onshore that there was a huge change. Is this a really valid argument? It happens, but even though this isn't in the RAOB network, it's not like there is no sampling going on. We know that a significant snowstorm is likely somewhere in the Midwest...will it shift around? Sure. But if you're in Alabama, well, that much shifting is not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Heads I get buried with system snow here at Elkhart...tails I get buried by the LES that follows...any takers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Grand Rapids disco explains why they like the Euro WE CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL WAVE PATTERNACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR A MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA PATTERN. IT IS FOR THAT REASON I LIKE THE ECMWF`S MORE AMPLIFIED AND PHASED SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND STORM. AT 12Z TUESDAY THERE WAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WITH A UPSTREAM RIDGE WEST OF THE DATELINE. MEANWHILE THERE AS A STRONG SYSTEM COMING OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA HEADING TOWARD THE BERING SEA. IT IS THAT SYSTEM THAT CLIMBS OVER THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN...WHICH THEN SHEARS OUT THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST THAT RESULTS IN OUR SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY EVENING THERE IS A 140 KNOT JET DIGGING INTO BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES. UPSTREAM OF THAT IS A 150 KNOT JET CLIMBING THE RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST BY THAN. IT IS THAT SECOND SPEED MAX THIS IS THE KEY TO ME TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN. THAT WILL RETROGRADE THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT RETROGRESSION BY THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL JUST WHAT IS NEEDED TO SLOW THE PROCESS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR BETTER PHASING AND MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. ACTUALLY WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE ISSUE IS WITH THE DETAILS OF THE PHASING IN THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE ECMWF HAS BETTER CONTINUITY... AS THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS ARE VERY SIMILAR FOR THE SUNDAY EVENT... NOT SO FOR THE GFS. THE BOTTOM LINE TO ALL OF THIS IS THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRACK OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 No doubt and shifts both ways. I'm sure some of the others can explain the strengths/weaknesses of the upper air sampling net work better. That is why boards like this are so great. Thanks both of you for your input. I see your argument about the strength question and how crucial it is to know where your at to figure out where you are going to go. I just know the weenie in me says well this thing isn't sampled yet that's why I'm not getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Appreciate the thoughts OL. Don't be a stranger. yeah, u know my location means i am always getting stuck in between the MW/Lakes threats and the EC threats and thats always difficult for me to put my posts in the right spot. im leaning towards MW on this one. i hope this works out for many of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Grand Rapids disco explains why they like the Euro GRR covers some points well. The overall upper air pattern is very similar among most of the models. And they are focusing on the major upper air features (jet, h5 highs/lows). These are the features that are driving the storm, and what the models do with these over the next couple of days will tell a large part of the evolution of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Did anyone post the GGEM ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Did anyone post the GGEM ensembles? No, but now someone did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Sometimes I wonder if politicians staff our office. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Yes please vote for me when I run for Emperor. Just kidding of course. I didn't work today, but come on, do you expect us to pretend we're all knowing or be up front and say that due to the uncertainties, it can be either way. I prefer to be up-front myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Did anyone post the GGEM ensembles? and for individual members GGEM ENSEMBLES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Would have posted the HPC final extended disco but they're not saying much. Pretty much used the EURO ensemble mean as a compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 so the euro and it's ensembles are at odds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 and for individual members GGEM ENSEMBLES I see, lots of spread until 120 or so. GEM 7 is my fav ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 so the euro and it's ensembles are at odds? EURO ensemble mean is more reminiscent of the CMC, maybe even a little south of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 EURO ensemble mean is more reminiscent of the CMC, maybe even a little south of that. Lock it in, hell lock in the GEM. I can take a ton of rain for a half foot of snow. at least this is exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Yes please vote for me when I run for Emperor. Just kidding of course. I didn't work today, but come on, do you expect us to pretend we're all knowing or be up front and say that due to the uncertainties, it can be either way. I prefer to be up-front myself. I prefer stating the ambiguities as well. Makes for an interesting learning experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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