Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event?

[prinsburg_wx]

Anyone catch skillful Tom Skilling?

I caught part of the noon edition but his animated maps for the storm were the GFS track and had all snow wording for chicago area

[A-L-E-K]

I caught part of the noon edition but his animated maps for the storm were the GFS track and had all snow wording for chicago area

I'll have to try and catch him at 9:30.

[Hoosier]

i hate to say it....but what do you think of the parallel to xmas eve '02? I think it might be a good fit. The euro may just be the extreme version of the right idea. A low heading into OH and then transferring south and east of that.

yuck

Haven't really looked for an analog event yet. That run of the Euro did bring back some memories of '99.

[A-L-E-K]

Haven't really looked for an analog event yet. That run of the Euro did bring back some memories of '99.

please,

[The_Global_Warmer]

The Euro doesn't make much sense to me. There is strong jet streak, I guess the euro has the H5 vort going negative nearly immediately after cyclogenisis and this is without a SE ridge. how will the h5 vort go negative so fast with a powerful digging jet and no SE ridge.

my guess is it tilts negative at H5 extremely fast.

[Moneyman]

Based on the Euro, how much would most of SE Wisconsin see? I'm thinking right now a track slightly south of the Euro would be perfect for the heaviest snow here.

You would probably get 6-8 inches based off the euro. Not exactly sure. Euro gives most of SE WI like 1.5-1.75 qpf, but the temps are too warm, espically if you are south of like milwaukee or near the lake.

[Hoosier]

please,

lol...although as said, this storm looks warmer so even if there are some general similarities, it won't be the same. I'm gonna check out the maps for '99 again...always nice to get a good refresher.

[buckeye]

The Euro doesn't make much sense to me. There is strong jet streak, I guess the euro has the H5 vort going negative nearly immediately after cyclogenisis and this is without a SE ridge. how will the h5 vort go negative so fast with a powerful digging jet and no SE ridge.

my guess is it tilts negative at H5 extremely fast.

it's a good question, i was wondering the same thing, what causes this storm to move so quickly north out of the southern plains without a southeast ridge or a strong west coast ridge. Im guessing it just has to do with the models, (the euro), going for a quick and early phase. Maybe we can get a red-tagger to chime

this is the 500 map right before it makes the turn north....very flat in the southeast and an unimpressive ridge in the west.

[jbcmh81]

i hate to say it....but what do you think of the parallel to xmas eve '02? I think it might be a good fit. The euro may just be the extreme version of the right idea. A low heading into OH and then transferring south and east of that.

yuck

You shut your filthy mouth! I remember talking to my dad xmas eve and he was getting blasted with 14" only an hour or so northwest of Columbus. I enjoyed our flurries and a light freezing rain before being dryslotted.

[buckeye]

You shut your filthy mouth! I remember talking to my dad xmas eve and he was getting blasted with 14" only an hour or so northwest of Columbus. I enjoyed our flurries and a light freezing rain before being dryslotted.

i always thought that March '08 was our pay back for that debacle....or even Dec'04 lol

[csnavywx]

Euro is still having a bit of trouble with the dominant low, and I don't have the in between frames, based based on the 120 hour position, that's still a major snowstorm from almost STL to ORD and into GRR perhaps.

[Hoosier]

Wow, the GFS has some absolutely absurd low level winds on the back side...check out the 70-75 kt. max at 900 mb from about STL southward into Arkansas at 120 hours. Good thing it seems to have an inversion at that time.

[A-L-E-K]

Per 12z GFS this storm is going to bring the hammer down cold air wise, wow.

[Chicago WX]

Euro is still having a bit of trouble with the dominant low, and I don't have the in between frames, based based on the 120 hour position, that's still a major snowstorm from almost STL to ORD and into GRR perhaps.

Seems that way. Notice the broad low pressure (stretching from MN to OK) from 96 to 108. Euro emphasizing the northern piece one would think with the track to NE IL.

[jbcmh81]

i always thought that March '08 was our pay back for that debacle....or even Dec'04 lol

December 04 was another annoying close call. 6.6" doesn't seem like much when, again, 30 miles northwest of you saw 12-20".

[Hoosier]

Whether this gets tapped into or not, it's just impressive to see this on the map.

[buckeye]

December 04 was another annoying close call. 6.6" doesn't seem like much when, again, 30 miles northwest of you saw 12-20".

true...i forgot that was literally a razor's edge slicing franklin county in half.

Speaking of March '08....wasn't it this timeframe before the storm when we were out of the game because it was gonna go nw of us?

[The_Global_Warmer]

Whether this gets tapped into or not, it's just impressive to see this on the map.

Would not take much to see a blizzard warning with 3-5 inches here. since the snow will be :dry" by the end with a cold column lots of blowing there.

[The_Global_Warmer]

true...i forgot that was literally a razor's edge slicing franklin county in half.

Speaking of March '08....wasn't it this timeframe before the storm when we were out of the game because it was gonna go nw of us?

Are you referencing March 4-Th-7th time-frame?

We had 7-13 inches immediate metro from that on the backside.

[csnavywx]

it's a good question, i was wondering the same thing, what causes this storm to move so quickly north out of the southern plains without a southeast ridge or a strong west coast ridge. Im guessing it just has to do with the models, (the euro), going for a quick and early phase. Maybe we can get a red-tagger to chime

this is the 500 map right before it makes the turn north....very flat in the southeast and an unimpressive ridge in the west.

That 500mb map is ideal for cyclogenesis. Very broad and strong diffluence zone ahead, and the left front quad of the jet streak plowing into the trough axis, which is already starting to go neutral tilt. This progged storm looks like an idea candidate for Sutcliffe-Pettersen self-development process, which will cause a storm like this to bomb, mature quickly, and cause it to cut left pretty hard. (Self-development refers to a large-scale positive feedback process, which in favorable conditions, can help a cyclone deepen rapidly. To put it simply... DPVA induces a wave -> tightens the thermal gradient -> deepens the upper trough due to increased CAA ---> increases DPVA ---> strengthens the low -> tightens gradient ---> etc... eventually this is limited by the upper low outrunning the surface low and friction.)

[jbcmh81]

true...i forgot that was literally a razor's edge slicing franklin county in half.

Speaking of March '08....wasn't it this timeframe before the storm when we were out of the game because it was gonna go nw of us?

I honestly don't remember. I know in the few days before the snowfall maps for us were ridiculous, where it showed 12-24" through I-71. Seemed unreal but it ended up being pretty accurate. But that storm was a rare true Apps spine rider.

[A-L-E-K]

That 500mb map is ideal for cyclogenesis. Very broad and strong diffluence zone ahead, and the left front quad of the jet streak plowing into the trough axis, which is already starting to go neutral tilt. This progged storm looks like an idea candidate for Sutcliffe-Pettersen self-development process, which will cause a storm like this to bomb, mature quickly, and cause it to cut left pretty hard. (Self-development refers to a large-scale positive feedback process, which in favorable conditions, can help a cyclone deepen rapidly. To put it simply... DPVA induces a wave -> tightens the thermal gradient -> deepens the upper trough due to increased CAA ---> increases DPVA ---> strengthens the low -> tightens gradient ---> etc... eventually this is limited by the upper low outrunning the surface low and friction.)

Why this board is awesome^

[Hoosier]

That 500mb map is ideal for cyclogenesis. Very broad and strong diffluence zone ahead, and the left front quad of the jet streak plowing into the trough axis, which is already starting to go neutral tilt. This progged storm looks like an idea candidate for Sutcliffe-Pettersen self-development process, which will cause a storm like this to bomb, mature quickly, and cause it to cut left pretty hard. (Self-development refers to a large-scale positive feedback process, which in favorable conditions, can help a cyclone deepen rapidly. To put it simply... DPVA induces a wave -> tightens the thermal gradient -> deepens the upper trough due to increased CAA ---> increases DPVA ---> strengthens the low -> tightens gradient ---> etc... eventually this is limited by the upper low outrunning the surface low and friction.)

Maybe you or baroclinic instability can answer this...would the NAM be more likely to handle a setup like this better than other models?

[BowMeHunter]

That 500mb map is ideal for cyclogenesis. Very broad and strong diffluence zone ahead, and the left front quad of the jet streak plowing into the trough axis, which is already starting to go neutral tilt. This progged storm looks like an idea candidate for Sutcliffe-Pettersen self-development process, which will cause a storm like this to bomb, mature quickly, and cause it to cut left pretty hard. (Self-development refers to a large-scale positive feedback process, which in favorable conditions, can help a cyclone deepen rapidly. To put it simply... DPVA induces a wave -> tightens the thermal gradient -> deepens the upper trough due to increased CAA ---> increases DPVA ---> strengthens the low -> tightens gradient ---> etc... eventually this is limited by the upper low outrunning the surface low and friction.)

That's the dirtiest talk I have heard in some time.. I need a smoke.

[buckeye]

That 500mb map is ideal for cyclogenesis. Very broad and strong diffluence zone ahead, and the left front quad of the jet streak plowing into the trough axis, which is already starting to go neutral tilt. This progged storm looks like an idea candidate for Sutcliffe-Pettersen self-development process, which will cause a storm like this to bomb, mature quickly, and cause it to cut left pretty hard. (Self-development refers to a large-scale positive feedback process, which in favorable conditions, can help a cyclone deepen rapidly. To put it simply... DPVA induces a wave -> tightens the thermal gradient -> deepens the upper trough due to increased CAA ---> increases DPVA ---> strengthens the low -> tightens gradient ---> etc... eventually this is limited by the upper low outrunning the surface low and friction.)

thanks...that makes sense as to why, assuming all the players are positioned as the euro depicts, it would cut hard. I guess ultimately the question is whether the euro has the players on the field in the right position. (trough placement etc).

[buckeye]

That's the dirtiest talk I have heard in some time.. I need a smoke.

yea i gotta confess i had a bit of 'stirring' in the pants when i read Sutcliffe-Pettersen self-development process

[snowlord81]

I dont know if this was brought up already, but I just read in the 12z thread that the euro ensembles are all south of the op run again. Take it fwiw.

[Moneyman]

The ensembles are ALWAYS SE of the op runs. It's just a matter of how much. If it is WAY south, then that gives you a red flag. Otherwise, if it's just a little bit SE, then it isn't a big deal.

[Hoosier]

The ensembles are ALWAYS SE of the op runs. It's just a matter of how much. If it is WAY south, then that gives you a red flag. Otherwise, if it's just a little bit SE, then it isn't a big deal.

Generally agree...but I give the Euro ensembles more weight than the GFS ensembles and it's interesting how they continue to be farther south than the OP Euro.

[JoMo]

The ensembles are ALWAYS SE of the op runs. It's just a matter of how much. If it is WAY south, then that gives you a red flag. Otherwise, if it's just a little bit SE, then it isn't a big deal.

yeah, he didn't say how far SE. He said something along the lines of them being like last nights 00z Euro Ensembles, right?