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Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event?


Chicago Storm

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When the Euro shows a hard lake cut, there's probably something to it.

the euro definitely has a history of leading the way when it comes to lake cutters. However I think it loses some cred with the fact that it has a totally different look in the earlier panels, and thus a totally different way of getting it to the lakes..

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It's hard to tell if this Euro track would be far enough nw to get southeastern Iowa into the back edge of the deformation zone.

I'd sure think a track to Chicago would be too far NW if anything.

Probably need a red tagger to give us some guidance as to what the EURO's problem is.

Yep, this weenie fest is reaching oscar meyer factory status.

But really who says the Euro has the problem, obv some of the GFS ensembles support the further NW idea and it's not like it hasn't happened before. Personally i think the odds of the primary tracking east of central ohio (at best for those east) are slim.

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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS EXTREME NEOHIO INTO NW PA BUT IT LOOKS AS IF WINDS WILL BE FROM ASOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS TYPICALLY TAKES THE HEAVIEST SNOWINTO NY. THIS SNOW SHOULD END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL THENWATCH THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE FROM THEPLAINS TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTYON ITS TRACK BUT IT LOOKS TO HAVE IMPACTS ON THE AREA LATESATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A GENERAL SNOW TOALL LOCATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME WARM AIR THAT ATTEMPTS TO MOVENORTHWARD WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM SO THERE COULD BE ISSUES WITHPRECIPITATION TYPE FOR A FEW HOURS OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAYMORNING.This is the area forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in Cleveland.

CLE discussions are worthless.

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Money-

We going to need tractors to plow us out?

I'm stocking up on liquor, dirty magazines and cigarettes just in case.

Honestly, I don't know if I can buy the euro being that NW when the GFS/GEM/UKIE etc are all way farther south. But then I remember the past few years, how we would always get screwed by the models trending NW every run inside of 100 hours. Then I looked at the 6z and 12z GFS, and the 12z GFS is about 200-300 miles farther NW then the 6z.

It's just a wait and see imo. The thing the EURO has going for it is that it has been consistent. It's been showing the LOW going around Chicago for several runs now. While the GFS has been all over the place.

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I'd sure think a track to Chicago would be too far NW if anything.

Yep, this weenie fest is reaching oscar meyer factory status.

But really who says the Euro has the problem, obv some of the GFS ensembles support the further NW idea and it's not like it hasn't happened before. Personally i think the odds of the primary tracking east of central ohio (at best for those east) are slim.

I mean, I'll be the first to defer to the EURO, even when it's a massive outlier, just because of its great trackrecord. But when its even on the far northern side of its own ensembles, that kinda sorta sets off some alarm bells that maybe it's mishandling some features. Now, if the 12z EURO ensembles trend towards the OP run, I'll almost surely back away from my EURO bashing.

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Good so now we are at:

Gem, GFS, Umket, JMA, GFS ensembles, Gem ensembles vs Euro.

Well, Euro is like the borg vs the alpha quadrant we are all still screwed. Need a scale tipper :)

You can add the FIM to the GFS posse. Of course that's not really fair since it's like a cousin of the GFS.

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Honestly, I don't know if I can buy the euro being that NW when the GFS/GEM/UKIE etc are all way farther south. But then I remember the past few years, how we would always get screwed by the models trending NW every run inside of 100 hours. Then I looked at the 6z and 12z GFS, and the 12z GFS is about 200-300 miles farther NW then the 6z.

It's just a wait and see imo. The thing the EURO has going for it is that it has been consistent. It's been showing the LOW going around Chicago for several runs now. While the GFS has been all over the place.

wait til we get into the nam fun zone and it takes it over msp one run then over cleveland the next.

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I mean, I'll be the first to defer to the EURO, even when it's a massive outlier, just because of its great trackrecord. But when its even on the far northern side of its own ensembles, that kinda sorta sets off some alarm bells that maybe it's mishandling some features. Now, if the 12z EURO ensembles trend towards the OP run, I'll almost surely back away from my EURO bashing.

I think that's a good point. The Euro ensembles are actually pretty good so to see its OP run depart to this extent is a warning sign imo. But as you said, we shall see what the 12z Euro ENS have.

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So he's hyping a storm up? No way....

JB is a little sensationalist, but don't forget the '99 blizzard killed over 70 people. Granted about half were in car accidents but others were shoveling/cold related. So life threatening to some extent if you don't take proper precautions.

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JB is a little sensationalist, but don't forget the '99 blizzard killed over 70 people. Granted about half were in car accidents but others were shoveling/cold related. So life threatening to some extent if you don't take proper precautions.

i hate to say it....but what do you think of the parallel to xmas eve '02? I think it might be a good fit. The euro may just be the extreme version of the right idea. A low heading into OH and then transferring south and east of that.

yuck

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