buckeye Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 When the Euro shows a hard lake cut, there's probably something to it. the euro definitely has a history of leading the way when it comes to lake cutters. However I think it loses some cred with the fact that it has a totally different look in the earlier panels, and thus a totally different way of getting it to the lakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 at hour120, the 500 MB energy is almost in the exact same spot on the Euro vs the GFS at the same time except the Euro is a bit farther north and not closed off and the GFS is. It could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 lol at the euro. 1.5-1.75 qpf. Jesus. Honestly, I think the euro might be a bit to far north, but the GFS/GEM/UKIE are a tad far south. I still like the track from S. ILL to S/C. IND. Compromise is the way to go right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Looks like it still drags the deformation zone threw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It's hard to tell if this Euro track would be far enough nw to get southeastern Iowa into the back edge of the deformation zone. I'd sure think a track to Chicago would be too far NW if anything. Probably need a red tagger to give us some guidance as to what the EURO's problem is. Yep, this weenie fest is reaching oscar meyer factory status. But really who says the Euro has the problem, obv some of the GFS ensembles support the further NW idea and it's not like it hasn't happened before. Personally i think the odds of the primary tracking east of central ohio (at best for those east) are slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 well here's JMA ..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Money- We going to need tractors to plow us out? I'm stocking up on liquor, dirty magazines and cigarettes just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Heh, 540 thickness/0c 850 lines are pretty far SE. Jan 1999? classic bring up Jan '99 100+ hrs out jinx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS EXTREME NEOHIO INTO NW PA BUT IT LOOKS AS IF WINDS WILL BE FROM ASOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS TYPICALLY TAKES THE HEAVIEST SNOWINTO NY. THIS SNOW SHOULD END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL THENWATCH THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE FROM THEPLAINS TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTYON ITS TRACK BUT IT LOOKS TO HAVE IMPACTS ON THE AREA LATESATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A GENERAL SNOW TOALL LOCATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME WARM AIR THAT ATTEMPTS TO MOVENORTHWARD WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM SO THERE COULD BE ISSUES WITHPRECIPITATION TYPE FOR A FEW HOURS OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAYMORNING.This is the area forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in Cleveland. CLE discussions are worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Good so now we are at: Gem, GFS, Umket, JMA, GFS ensembles, Gem ensembles vs Euro. Well, Euro is like the borg vs the alpha quadrant we are all still screwed. Need a scale tipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 well here's JMA ..lol Awesoma powa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It's hard to tell if this Euro track would be far enough nw to get southeastern Iowa into the back edge of the deformation zone. It's a rain to snow scenario even for E IA. Really it looks like the only areas that cash are in WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Good so now we are at: Gem, GFS, Umket, JMA, GFS ensembles, Gem ensembles vs Euro. Well, Euro is like the borg vs the alpha quadrant we are all still screwed. Need a scale tipper I'll take the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 CLE discussions are worthless. CLE and PIT are both pathetic....it always seems like they can't wait to put out the afd and go home...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Money-We going to need tractors to plow us out? I'm stocking up on liquor, dirty magazines and cigarettes just in case. Honestly, I don't know if I can buy the euro being that NW when the GFS/GEM/UKIE etc are all way farther south. But then I remember the past few years, how we would always get screwed by the models trending NW every run inside of 100 hours. Then I looked at the 6z and 12z GFS, and the 12z GFS is about 200-300 miles farther NW then the 6z. It's just a wait and see imo. The thing the EURO has going for it is that it has been consistent. It's been showing the LOW going around Chicago for several runs now. While the GFS has been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I'd sure think a track to Chicago would be too far NW if anything. Yep, this weenie fest is reaching oscar meyer factory status. But really who says the Euro has the problem, obv some of the GFS ensembles support the further NW idea and it's not like it hasn't happened before. Personally i think the odds of the primary tracking east of central ohio (at best for those east) are slim. I mean, I'll be the first to defer to the EURO, even when it's a massive outlier, just because of its great trackrecord. But when its even on the far northern side of its own ensembles, that kinda sorta sets off some alarm bells that maybe it's mishandling some features. Now, if the 12z EURO ensembles trend towards the OP run, I'll almost surely back away from my EURO bashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Good so now we are at: Gem, GFS, Umket, JMA, GFS ensembles, Gem ensembles vs Euro. Well, Euro is like the borg vs the alpha quadrant we are all still screwed. Need a scale tipper You can add the FIM to the GFS posse. Of course that's not really fair since it's like a cousin of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Honestly, I don't know if I can buy the euro being that NW when the GFS/GEM/UKIE etc are all way farther south. But then I remember the past few years, how we would always get screwed by the models trending NW every run inside of 100 hours. Then I looked at the 6z and 12z GFS, and the 12z GFS is about 200-300 miles farther NW then the 6z. It's just a wait and see imo. The thing the EURO has going for it is that it has been consistent. It's been showing the LOW going around Chicago for several runs now. While the GFS has been all over the place. wait til we get into the nam fun zone and it takes it over msp one run then over cleveland the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Good so now we are at: Gem, GFS, Umket, JMA, GFS ensembles, Gem ensembles vs Euro. Well, Euro is like the borg vs the alpha quadrant we are all still screwed. Need a scale tipper Friv, where are you getting the GGEM ensembles?. They haven't updated on the main page yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 i just read jb's update. he actually uses the word "life threatener" his focus area is chicago to cle to buffalo to pit..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The 12z GFS still has this particular storm across the Ohio Valley Region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Heh, 540 thickness/0c 850 lines are pretty far SE. Jan 1999? You can see it is occluding by that point which is what '99 did (of course that had some really cold air out ahead...but both of those were reasons why areas east of the track stayed all snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 i just read jb's update. he actually uses the word "life threatener" his focus area is chicago to cle to buffalo to pit..... So he's hyping a storm up? No way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I mean, I'll be the first to defer to the EURO, even when it's a massive outlier, just because of its great trackrecord. But when its even on the far northern side of its own ensembles, that kinda sorta sets off some alarm bells that maybe it's mishandling some features. Now, if the 12z EURO ensembles trend towards the OP run, I'll almost surely back away from my EURO bashing. I think that's a good point. The Euro ensembles are actually pretty good so to see its OP run depart to this extent is a warning sign imo. But as you said, we shall see what the 12z Euro ENS have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 i just read jb's update. he actually uses the word "life threatener" his focus area is chicago to cle to buffalo to pit..... In the sense going to the beach or sun tanning would be a bad idea, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Anyone catch skillful Tom Skilling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 You can see it is occluding by that point which is what '99 did (of course that had some really cold air out ahead...but both of those were reasons why areas east of the track stayed all snow). And that's the big difference. I'm guessing bl temps on the EURO are pretty fugly on the east side of this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 So he's hyping a storm up? No way.... JB is a little sensationalist, but don't forget the '99 blizzard killed over 70 people. Granted about half were in car accidents but others were shoveling/cold related. So life threatening to some extent if you don't take proper precautions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 JB is a little sensationalist, but don't forget the '99 blizzard killed over 70 people. Granted about half were in car accidents but others were shoveling/cold related. So life threatening to some extent if you don't take proper precautions. i hate to say it....but what do you think of the parallel to xmas eve '02? I think it might be a good fit. The euro may just be the extreme version of the right idea. A low heading into OH and then transferring south and east of that. yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Based on the Euro, how much would most of SE Wisconsin see? I'm thinking right now a track slightly south of the Euro would be perfect for the heaviest snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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