Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event?

[JoMo]

I don't know if it will Chicago WX. I mean the GGEM caved.

The whole issue is going to be how far south this thing digs and the strength of the energy which probably won't be fully known until the system is sampled in a few days :-\

[snowlord81]

I can't wait for Dr. No to come in and stomp on any emerging positivity I've gained this morning/afternoon.

Tell me about it!

[ArmyGreens]

Im going to buy ice melt this afternoon...usually when I do this prior to a storm, there is something to shovel.

[snowstormcanuck]

Hmm, it still has quite the warm tongue for it to be so far south.

No blocking = no cold air damming = even just a hair northeast of the storm track is going to be close.

[Chicago WX]

i'm going with the idea it goes way south....12z nogap-esque

Nocraps went south, huh? Any news on the 12z Ukie?

[A-L-E-K]

GGEM really cranks up the 850s out ahead, looks like i'd have some serious mixing issues.

I'll echo others, the agreement between the 12z OP GFS and GGEM is nice. I still think the eventual track is pretty up in the air, but I'm starting to feel better about the low tracking out of the southern plains as opposed to bowling right through the central plains like the Euro was showing.

[buckeye]

Nocraps went south, huh? Any news on the 12z Ukie?

nocraps maybe north a tad of the 6z....but it went WAAAAAY south....like southern TN valley. The ukie hasn't updated that I can see

[A-L-E-K]

Hmm, it still has quite the warm tongue for it to be so far south.

That's pretty consistent with the GFS as well. If a low emerges around the OK Panhandle with an open gulf flow ahead of it as it strengthens, it's going to crank up the warm air.

[Powerball]

In fact, come to think about it the GGEM looks exactly like 12/5 12z EURO (just SLIGHTLY southward and warmer).

[buckeye]

GGEM really cranks up the 850s out ahead, looks like i'd have some serious mixing issues.

I'll echo others, the agreement between the 12z OP GFS and GGEM is nice. I still think the eventual track is pretty up in the air, but I'm starting to feel better about the low tracking out of the southern plains as opposed to bowling right through the central plains like the Euro was showing.

agree with this....the question is how quickly it makes the turn

[snowlord81]

It looks like alot of us out ahead of the storm may have to start out as rain or a mix. But I think once your on the backside it will make up for the crappy start.

[snowstormcanuck]

No blocking = no cold air damming = even just a hair northeast of the storm track is going to be close.

Good news is that at 144 on the GGEM the low is near ALB. Have to wait until I can see the 132 image to be sure, but it at least implies that the low has "bowled" across the OV rather than cut through the Lakes.

[Chicago WX]

It's still updating, through about 96 hours, but here's a link to the RGEM/GGEM p-type maps.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[buckeye]

It looks like alot of us out ahead of the storm may have to start out as rain or a mix. But I think once your on the backside it will make up for the crappy start.

yea, surprising warmth north. Even the gfs shows rain mixing in at ORD at the onset....shows IND about 50/50 rain-snow and CMH about 70/30 rain-snow

[Hoosier]

Barring something really unexpected, I'm pretty much convinced we're going to start off as rain here. I definitely like the potential for accumulating snow...that's about all I'd say right now. Local risk should start to get clarified better in the next couple days.

[A-L-E-K]

agree with this....the question is how quickly it makes the turn

The phase issues aren't going to be worked out any time soon but if i had to guess, i don't think it's going to stay suppressed enough to give you a good snow.

[Chicago WX]

It looks like alot of us out ahead of the storm may have to start out as rain or a mix. But I think once your on the backside it will make up for the crappy start.

Yeah even with a good track, I can't see any way we don't start as rain in central Indiana. IF the southern track wins out, what transpires once the cold air arrives will be key no doubt. I'm always leery of those scenarios, but we'll see.

[A-L-E-K]

It's still updating, through about 96 hours, but here's a link to the RGEM/GGEM p-type maps.

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

Tracks from the OK panhandle to the central IN/OH border at 991 and gives me nothing but rain

[buckeye]

The phase issues aren't going to be worked out any time soon but if i had to guess, i don't think it's going to stay suppressed enough to give you a good snow.

I think we see accum snow here. Rain? absolutely. But at least some accum on the backside

[A-L-E-K]

I think we see accum snow here. Rain? absolutely. But at least some accum on the backside

trace to 1/3"

[AppsRunner]

Nocraps went south, huh? Any news on the 12z Ukie?

I'm still waiting on the UKMET... once it updates on FSU's site it updates everything at once, and that should be soon.

[Chicago WX]

Tracks from the OK panhandle to the central IN/OH border at 991 and gives me nothing but rain

Ha, those maps sure paint a farther north surface track than the ole black 'n whites.

[buckeye]

Yeah even with a good track, I can't see any way we don't start as rain in central Indiana. IF the southern track wins out, what transpires once the cold air arrives will be key no doubt. I'm always leery of those scenarios, but we'll see.

kinda unavoidable with that ridge popping ahead of it....oh well. Can you imagine this ending up as primarily a warm-sector precip event after all the cold we've been enduring..lol

[Organizing Low]

Are the models still showing a transfer to an EC storm?

there is so much energy in the MW, if it happens it will probably be weak or late. in some way, i need it to be safe....but i think this stays a strong primary. i just wish we had more block or cold air out ahead here in the eastern lakes.

[prinsburg_wx]

I'm still waiting on the UKMET... once it updates on FSU's site it updates everything at once, and that should be soon.

12Z ukie

[Chicago WX]

12Z ukie

Thanks! Looks like it remains consistent with its track through KY.

[Moneyman]

EURO looks like it's heading south as well.

[buckeye]

Thanks! Looks like it remains consistent with its track through KY.

that's a rain changing to a helluvasnowstorm for here

[snowstormcanuck]

12Z ukie

Thanks for the link. Well, I'd rather have things a little too far SE at this point.

[Baum]

Just got the JB noon update. I'm off to stockpile canned goods. As for the Bears game I hope the Pats come in on Friday...will never make it by Saturday.