Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event?

[ArmyGreens]

12z GFS isn't.

Nice

[Powerball]

i dont really use buffkit much, if any, but what does it show for lincoln, ne (klink)

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=klnk

[Chicago WX]

Yep and that's a really broad area of .25+ which gives you a good idea about the strength and spread amongst the individual members. My confindence in accumulating snow is pretty high but i can't shake a rain concerns...probably the ghost of northwest trends past.

Your confidence and concerns are valid. Really hard to get excited one way or the other right now, until one of the model camps break form. Or maybe not...lots of time still.

[A-L-E-K]

This would be a pretty impressive LE for a prolonged period of time for this side of the lake it looks like.

It won't shake out anything like that map is showing, i'm pretty sure the mean is still pretty polluted by opposite camps, it will be interesting to see the individual members, but i suspect it's a half well south / half well north kind of thing as opposed to a nice cluster.

[BowMeHunter]

Doesn't sound like there were any must listen nuggets in there. I might check out the late week show. You have an early gut feeling on this one? At all worried about rain up there?

Yeah nothing really about the show is a must listen (I still enjoyed it live) to at all, but DT and Randy do a good job of making sure its not just an east coast weenie show.

I haven't a clue with this storm.. Gut kinna is saying just a glancing blow here but until Dr No says No to its northern more track anything is on the table. If its still north after tonight's run its time to start taking it a bit more serious imo...

Definitely worried about rain up here with waa in a stronger storm and then there is a pretty warm lake and with a se to east wind forgetabout an all snow event.

[Chicago WX]

Mike, can you put in a call to EC to speed up today's 12z GGEM?

[jcwxguy]

lol shows 1.2" for me beats the trace

-thanks for the link

[Tony]

It won't shake out anything like that map is showing, i'm pretty sure the mean is still pretty polluted by opposite camps, it will be interesting to see the individual members, but i suspect it's a half well south / half well north kind of thing as opposed to a nice cluster.

Looking at the operational run it looks pretty darn good but still a ways away.

[Chicago WX]

12z GFS ensembles at 120.

[snowstormcanuck]

Mike, can you put in a call to EC to speed up today's 12z GGEM?

lol, with all the nasty e-mails I've written EC over the years, I think I'm on the outs with them.

[Chicago WX]

lol, with all the nasty e-mails I've written EC over the years, I think I'm on the outs with them.

Fair enough. Of course maybe I don't want to see it.

[A-L-E-K]

12z GFS ensembles at 120.

still pretty all over the map. P007 FTW look at that trowal.

[snowstormcanuck]

still pretty all over the map.

Yeah, looks like a couple are uber-cutters, a couple are uber suppressed, and the others sort of follow the OP idea.

[Moneyman]

Through hour 84, GEM looks pretty much the same as 0z. According to Tombo.

[snowstormcanuck]

Fair enough. Of course maybe I don't want to see it.

Through 84 it looks ok. Nothing to really scream its heading for Duluth.

[Chicago WX]

South?

[snowstormcanuck]

Out to 96...we got a 1003 over the OK panhandle.

[A-L-E-K]

I hate the black and whites, but it seems to have lost the idea of plowing the low straight east out of the northern plains and has latched onto a more southern low idea, but does bring it NE from there. Looks like a good hit for many.

[JoMo]

Yeah, low goes from OK Panhandle to SE Missouri and then NE from there but I can't see exactly where on B/W maps.

[A-L-E-K]

Yeah, low goes from OK Panhandle to SE Missouri and then NE from there but I can't see exactly where on B/W maps.

panhandle hooker?

[snowstormcanuck]

At 120 it's basically on the KY/OH/IN triple point.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The gem is my friend as well.

the UL's and the Surface low are nearly stacked, well a lot closer then most systems...

goes from abouyt 100 miles of KSTL to SE Indiana.

without the SE ridge moves mostly East.

[Chicago WX]

Looks like 993 just west of CVG at 120. Would be an "interesting" scenario for LAF.

[hawkeye_wx]

12z GFS and GEM actually look quite similar, with the GFS maybe a tad farther south. Maybe the Euro will join them.

[Chicago WX]

I can't wait for Dr. No to come in and stomp on any emerging positivity I've gained this morning/afternoon.

[buckeye]

At 120 it's basically on the KY/OH/IN triple point.

let the south trend commence

[The_Global_Warmer]

I can't wait for Dr. No to come in and stomp on any emerging positivity I've gained this morning/afternoon.

Maybe, the GEM doing this is a great sign. Since it tends to be more wrapped up and north. The 00z EURO ensemble mean was slightly further south then this run of the GEM. That could indicate the Euro making a more south turn as well.

[Moneyman]

GEM even manages to spit out .5 qpf here. Would be a solid storm. I'm down with it.

[buckeye]

I can't wait for Dr. No to come in and stomp on any emerging positivity I've gained this morning/afternoon.

i'm going with the idea it goes way south....12z nogap-esque

[Powerball]

Hmm, it still has quite the warm tongue for it to be so far south.