Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event?

[Moneyman]

Bears are gonna get beat anyways. Might as well make it interesting eh?

[snowstormcanuck]

yes please.

[A-L-E-K]

That could be quite a bit or very little depending on the ratios.

Looks like a windy 4-7" for Chicagoland.

It will be interesting to see where this OP run fall in relation to the GFS, Euro and Canadian ensemble means, because at first glance it looks pretty close to the 0z means.

[ArmyGreens]

PSU data hasn't updated, so I used the more sparse data located on the BUFKIT main page:

Toronto:

All snow: 12-15"

Detroit:

All snow: 7-12"

St. Louis:

1.33" of rain followed by 6-7" of snow.

Cleveland

2-4" of snow, followed by 0.10" QPF worth of sleet, followed by 7-10" of snow (I'm guessing some of this is LES)

Central IN (Grissom)

All snow: 12-18". I have no idea where Grissom is but it sounds like it's more northern IN.

Grissom Air Base is just north of Kokomo.

[goknights]

Ggem is slow today

[KokomoWX]

PSU data hasn't updated, so I used the more sparse data located on the BUFKIT main page:

Toronto:

All snow: 12-15"

Detroit:

All snow: 7-12"

St. Louis:

1.33" of rain followed by 6-7" of snow.

Cleveland

2-4" of snow, followed by 0.10" QPF worth of sleet, followed by 7-10" of snow (I'm guessing some of this is LES)

Central IN (Grissom)

All snow: 12-18". I have no idea where Grissom is but it sounds like it's more northern IN.

About 1/2 way between Indy and South Bend. it is the station I usually have to use.

[snowstormcanuck]

Grissom Air Base is just north of Kokomo.

Thank you sir. I think it's safe to call that Northern IN.

[MajorLeagueStorms]

Hey guys, new to the forum (though I've been here for a few days but have been reading and learning) - tons of great info on here...

Personally I like the 00Z run of the ECMWF, but thats just because I'd get hit by the storm here in southern Minnesota...most other models keep it well south and east of us though obviously as other have mentioned the track is still very much 'up in the air'...

[Chicago WX]

That could be quite a bit or very little depending on the ratios.

I'd probably delete that image if I were you. AccuwxPro maps are usually discouraged here.

But thanks for posting it anyway.

[snowstormcanuck]

About 1/2 way between Indy and South Bend. it is the station I usually have to use.

Congrats. I'll shave of an inch on account of you beling slightly further south. Enjoy your 11-17".

[weatherbo]

Thank you sir. I think it's safe to call that Northern IN.

Borderline Central IN tho and the weather during systems like this vary a lot between there and say here and South Bend.

[The_Global_Warmer]

[jcwxguy]

i live in the small spot of low qpf in nebraska

[Chicago Storm]

i live in the small spot of low qpf in nebraska

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p60_120l.gif

Awesome.

[KokomoWX]

StnID: gvs    Model: gfs3   Run: 20101207/1200    Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Sleet Ratio: 2:1   || CarSnowTool Beta 5.1

Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SRat|Snow||CumSR|TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR
==============================================================================================================
101207/1500Z   3  29013KT  17.8F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101207/1800Z   6  29014KT  21.2F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101207/2100Z   9  29013KT  20.1F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101208/0000Z  12  28011KT  13.6F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101208/0300Z  15  28009KT  11.3F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101208/0600Z  18  28010KT  12.0F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101208/0900Z  21  28009KT  11.7F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101208/1200Z  24  27008KT   9.7F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101208/1500Z  27  28009KT  11.8F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101208/1800Z  30  28009KT  18.5F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101208/2100Z  33  29008KT  19.0F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101209/0000Z  36  28007KT  13.1F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101209/0300Z  39  28006KT  11.5F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101209/0600Z  42  27004KT  10.2F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101209/0900Z  45  22003KT  10.6F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101209/1200Z  48  18005KT  12.0F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101209/1500Z  51  17008KT  17.2F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101209/1800Z  54  18010KT  23.4F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101209/2100Z  57  17010KT  25.0F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101210/0000Z  60  17012KT  24.1F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101210/0300Z  63  18011KT  25.0F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101210/0600Z  66  20013KT  25.3F  SNOW    13:1| 0.2|| 13:1| 0.2    0.016|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101210/0900Z  69  21013KT  26.8F  FZDZ     0:1| 0.0|| 13:1| 0.2    0.012|| 0.03     0.00|| 0.00    0.01|| 0.01
101210/1200Z  72  23011KT  28.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 13:1| 0.2    0.000|| 0.03     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.01
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101210/1500Z  75  24011KT  32.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 13:1| 0.2    0.000|| 0.03     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.01
101210/1800Z  78  25012KT  34.5F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101210/2100Z  81  24009KT  34.0F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101211/0000Z  84  24008KT  31.3F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101211/0300Z  87  24007KT  31.1F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101211/0600Z  90  20007KT  30.0F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101211/0900Z  93  20007KT  28.2F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101211/1200Z  96  17007KT  29.3F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101211/1500Z  99  18008KT  33.3F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101211/1800Z 102  15007KT  37.2F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101211/2100Z 105  11008KT  36.5F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101212/0000Z 108  11009KT  33.1F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101212/0300Z 111  09011KT  32.5F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.016|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101212/0600Z 114  08013KT  32.4F  RASN     0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.051|| 0.07     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101212/0900Z 117  05015KT  30.9F  SNOW    13:1| 4.1|| 13:1| 4.1    0.323|| 0.39     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101212/1200Z 120  04016KT  30.9F  SNOW    17:1| 4.7|| 15:1| 8.9    0.272|| 0.66     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101212/1500Z 123  02016KT  30.7F  SNOW    15:1| 3.4|| 15:1|12.2    0.224|| 0.89     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101212/1800Z 126  36021KT  28.4F  SNOW     9:1| 0.9|| 14:1|13.1    0.094|| 0.98     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101212/2100Z 129  34023KT  22.5F  SNOW    18:1| 0.7|| 15:1|13.9    0.039|| 1.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101213/0000Z 132  35022KT  19.0F  SNOW    24:1| 1.2|| 15:1|15.1    0.051|| 1.07     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101213/0300Z 135  34020KT  15.1F  SNOW    25:1| 0.4|| 15:1|15.5    0.016|| 1.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101213/0600Z 138  34017KT  12.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 15:1|15.5    0.000|| 1.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101213/0900Z 141  34014KT  12.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 15:1|15.5    0.000|| 1.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101213/1200Z 144  33012KT  13.1F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101213/1500Z 147  33013KT  15.1F  SNOW    28:1| 0.3|| 28:1| 0.3    0.012|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101213/1800Z 150  34014KT  17.2F  SNOW    28:1| 0.5|| 28:1| 0.9    0.020|| 0.03     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101213/2100Z 153  31012KT  17.4F  SNOW    28:1| 0.9|| 28:1| 1.8    0.031|| 0.06     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101214/0000Z 156  30011KT  13.3F  SNOW    27:1| 0.8|| 28:1| 2.6    0.031|| 0.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101214/0300Z 159  29009KT  10.6F  SNOW    27:1| 0.6|| 27:1| 3.2    0.024|| 0.12     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101214/0600Z 162  29007KT   9.3F  SNOW    25:1| 0.5|| 27:1| 3.7    0.020|| 0.14     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101214/0900Z 165  30005KT   8.1F  SNOW    10:1| 0.1|| 26:1| 3.9    0.012|| 0.15     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101214/1200Z 168  26006KT   3.9F           0:1| 0.0|| 26:1| 3.9    0.000|| 0.15     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++--------
101214/1500Z 171  26007KT   5.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 26:1| 3.9    0.000|| 0.15     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101214/1800Z 174  26008KT   9.5F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101214/2100Z 177  27008KT   7.5F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
101215/0000Z 180  27007KT  -0.8F           0:1| 0.0||  0:1| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00
========================================================================================================

Better than VD2007.

[snowstormcanuck]

Borderline Central IN tho and the weather during systems like this vary a lot between there and say here and South Bend.

Sure. The only reason I wanted to emphasize N IN over C IN is because I assume when people think of C IN they think of Indianapolis. And that 12-18" BUFKIT output for Grissom isn't indicative of what the GFS is depicting for Indy, which is going to be more of a mixed bag.

[Chicago WX]

So the GFS ensemble mean remains SE of the OP...no shock there I guess. It'll be interesting to see the individual runs when they become available.

[Tony]

This would be a pretty impressive LE for a prolonged period of time for this side of the lake it looks like.

[Powerball]

I'd probably delete that image if I were you. AccuwxPro maps are usually discouraged here.

But thanks for posting it anyway.

It was using a 10:1 ratio, so fair enough.

I expect half of this snow will feature sub-10:1 ratios, so those numbers were probably a tad inflated.

[jbcmh81]

Still pretty far south... are they further south than 06z? I thought the ensembles had it closer to the Ohio River?

[snowstormcanuck]

Great day for the GGEM to break.

[ArmyGreens]

Are the models still showing a transfer to an EC storm?

[Chicago WX]

It was using a 10:1 ratio, so fair enough.

I expect half of this snow will feature sub-10:1 ratios, so those numbers were probably a tad inflated.

I was talking more about copyright, "pay for" service maps being posted. Plus I'm sure Accuwx wouldn't be too excited about it either. No biggie.

[A-L-E-K]

So the GFS ensemble mean remains SE of the OP...no shock there I guess. It'll be interesting to see the individual runs when they become available.

Yep and that's a really broad area of .25+ which gives you a good idea about the strength and spread amongst the individual members. My confindence in accumulating snow is pretty high but i can't shake a rain concerns...probably the ghost of northwest trends past.

[AppsRunner]

.75" of QPF for KTOL on the GFS... max temp is .2* C, so Should be all snow.

[snowstormcanuck]

Are the models still showing a transfer to an EC storm?

12z GFS isn't.

[Powerball]

Wow, 12z GFS BUFKIT shows a 12:1 ratio and 10" here.

That seems a bit high though with dewpoints in the low 30s for a good part of the event.

[jcwxguy]

just need the system to go slightly farther south the shoot northeast to increase my amounts from a trace of snow to shovelable

[jcwxguy]

Wow, 12z GFS BUFKIT shows a 12:1 ratio and 10" here.

That seems a bit high though with dewpoints in the low 30s for a good part of the event.

i dont really use buffkit much, if any, but what does it show for lincoln, ne (klink)

[ArmyGreens]

just need the system to go slightly farther south the shoot northeast to increase my amounts from a trace of snow to shovelable

Exactly what everyone in Ohio is thinking! LOL