Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event?

[The_Global_Warmer]

There is NO SE RIDGE YAY!!!!

Last time we had this in STL, the system went almost West to East after it Digged out west, and the deformation zone went the same and a wide area from KS ENEE from there got it good.

the lack of a ridge for this to bounce off of is key

[daddylonglegs]

Money-

Exactly. I've seen this movie before.

[snowstormcanuck]

12z GFS = a storm track I only see verify in my dreams. Amazingly tight baroclinic zone. 50 mile shift west is going to break a few hearts.

[A-L-E-K]

Run BUFKIT before you despair. GFS 2m temps are notorious crap in this range.

With the WAA out ahead, it's the mid level warm air that will be the potential killer, it happens so often with cutters that have a nice gulf connection.

[Chicago Storm]

I bet the mid level warm air makes a lot of that rain, WAA will be strong with this one.

Looking at the 925/850mb charts, WAA really isn't that strong at all.

[Chicago WX]

The main thing imo, is that the GFS has gone north. How far north will it go?

ORD? MKE? DLH? Pick your poison or pick a location that favors FDL.

[Chicago Storm]

ORD? MKE? DLH? Pick your poison or pick a location that favors FDL.

Sadly, if it hits DLH the snow won't sick to the grass.

[A-L-E-K]

Looking at the 925/850mb charts, WAA really isn't that strong at all.

It's not worth getting all anal over at that range, we're looking good, but i've heard this song enough to know how often WAA is underdone at this range that's all.

[snowstormcanuck]

Sort of wish we had a bit more upstream blocking, because then we could put the NW trend talk to rest. That little kink in the flow over the Maritime provinces (what was the clipper) at 114 is going to have to act as our 50/50 low substitute, but it'll do a half assed job.

[A-L-E-K]

ORD? MKE? DLH? Pick your poison or pick a location that favors FDL.

nice

[Chicago WX]

With the WAA out ahead, it's the mid level warm air that will be the potential killer, it happens so often with cutters that have a nice gulf connection.

Not to quibble, but can you really call it a true "cutter"? Seems more bowling ball-ish to me...favoring more east than north. It would suck though if the GFS verified and I had to battle p-type with a track so perfect.

[A-L-E-K]

I hope the Bear's running game comes to play.

[Chicago WX]

I hope the Bear's running game comes to play.

3:15 game, no?

Oh and gusts to 50MPH on that map.

[TheWeatherPimp]

Could be looking at some freezing rain for some areas

[The_Global_Warmer]

Without the SE ridge in place we won't need as much blocking north of this for a a more W-E track threw the Ohio Valley.

[Baum]

I hope the Bear's running game comes to play.

[jbcmh81]

It appears to be right around where its earlier ensembles had it. A track along the Ohio River is also where the Euro ensembles were for the most part. Perhaps this correction north is getting close to more of a consensus track. Will have to see what the Euro does later. Either way, I look to get a nice warm rain followed by flurries at best.

[Powerball]

1000-850mb thickness is very warm. The 1300m thickness line stretches from Detroit to Chicago to St. Louis at 114hr.

That's the critical line of thicknesss for our region BTW (to decide between rain & snow)

[snowstormcanuck]

Without the SE ridge in place we won't need as much blocking north of this for a a more W-E track threw the Ohio Valley.

Initially, the SE ridge is toppled. But remember, for every action, there is an equal, and opposite, reaction. As the GFS digs that s/w, the response is for the ridge to its east to amplify. For you in STL, I think you're safe, but for those of us further east, that reemerging ridge causes the storm to gain a lot of latitude between 126 and 144. I mean, I could see a track from PAH to central MI verifying under these circumstances. Some weak blocking in the W Atlantic would stop that from happening, and cause the storm to continue on its ENE/NE path.

[Powerball]

1300m thickness line drops off significantly at 120hr.

In this frame it stretches from Paducah to Indianapolis to the northern Lake Erie Shore.

[Powerball]

At 126hr, the 1300m thickless line is from just west of Nashville to just NW of a Cincinnati/Columbus/Cleveland line.

[A-L-E-K]

Not to quibble, but can you really call it a true "cutter"? Seems more bowling ball-ish to me...favoring more east than north. It would suck though if the GFS verified and I had to battle p-type with a track so perfect.

True, It's really more of an ohio valley low going from just south of STL to Western NY.

3:15 game, no?

Oh and gusts to 50MPH on that map.

My pocket schedule says noon** with the ** indicating it's subject to flex scheduling.

The bears playing in 40+ mph winds with snow falling would be so choice. Remeber the stadium is on the lakefront so those winds are coming in un-impeded.

[snowstormcanuck]

1000-850mb thickness is very warm. The 1300m thickness line stretches from Detroit to Chicago to St. Louis at 114hr.

That's the critical line of thicknesss for our region BTW (to decide between rain & snow)

I've had quite a few snowstorms where the 540 thickness line was progged to my NW. It's really a loose rule of thumb. I'd check out the soundings for p-type.

[A-L-E-K]

Initially, the SE ridge is toppled. But remember, for every action, there is an equal, and opposite, reaction. As the GFS digs that s/w, the response is for the ridge to its east to amplify. For you in STL, I think you're safe, but for those of us further east, that reemerging ridge causes the storm to gain a lot of latitude between 126 and 144. I mean, I could see a track from PAH to central MI verifying under these circumstances. Some weak blocking in the W Atlantic would stop that from happening, and cause the storm to continue on its ENE/NE path.

yes please.

[Chicago WX]

My pocket schedule says noon** with the ** indicating it's subject to flex scheduling.

It's been flexed to 3:15...so we need it to slow down a touch.

[Powerball]

I've had quite a few snowstorms where the 540 thickness line was progged to my NW. It's really a loose rule of thumb. I'd check out the soundings for p-type.

Yes, that's why I don't like using that one (1000-500mb thickness line).

At best most places this run only see .6-.8" of pure snow either because of mixing or the best lift doesn't match up with the coldest air.

[Organizing Low]

i dont have much to add thats already been said

certainly looks a potent storm

if its still on the table in another 24-36 hours, then

someone will be a big winner

[Chicago Storm]

Yes, that's why I don't like using that one (1000-500mb thickness line).

At best most places this run only see .6-.8" of pure snow either because of mixing or the best lift doesn't match up with the coldest air.

Only .6-.8", eh?

[A-L-E-K]

It's been flexed to 3:15...so we need it to slow down a touch.

Agree, I don't want to settle for 30-40 mph winds and flurries.

[snowstormcanuck]

PSU data hasn't updated, so I used the more sparse data located on the BUFKIT main page:

Toronto:

All snow: 12-15"

Detroit:

All snow: 7-12"

St. Louis:

1.33" of rain followed by 6-7" of snow.

Cleveland

2-4" of snow, followed by 0.10" QPF worth of sleet, followed by 7-10" of snow (I'm guessing some of this is LES)

Central IN (Grissom)

All snow: 12-18". I have no idea where Grissom is but it sounds like it's more northern IN.