Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event?

[JoMo]

I'm hoping the northern and southern s/ws stay disjointed enough to prevent an early phase/way west track.

No sir!

It does seem as there has been a recent trend of moving it farther west each run. (as in developing farther west)

[csnavywx]

That's assuming the Euro is right with moving the block that fast...

It has the right idea, especially if this is anywhere close to being true:

Someone pointed this out over at Stormvista too. I had not checked it in a few days, since most had it staying dead for a while. However a few of the HIRES GFS members had it heading out into phase 4/5 and they turned out to be right. It now forecasts a medium amplitude 4/5 MJO wave, which teleconnects very well with a big hit across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley (favors lake cutters or systems generally going west of the app mtns.). For the first time in several weeks, the block has a REASON to move, unlike the last couple of times the models tried to do so.

[Powerball]

What the heck!!!

Congrats Minneapolis!!!

[AppsRunner]

Well, there's going to be a storm somewhere. It's just a matter whether or not it's enough to satisfy some of the posters.

Might as well take the jump...

Dusting at best.

33/Rain here. Maybe a dusting backside

[wxdudemike]

It has the right idea, especially if this is anywhere close to being true:

Someone pointed this out over at Stormvista too. I had not checked it in a few days, since most had it staying dead for a while. However a few of the HIRES GFS members had it heading out into phase 4/5 and they turned out to be right. It now forecasts a medium amplitude 4/5 MJO wave, which teleconnects very well with a big hit across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley (favors lake cutters or systems generally going west of the app mtns.). For the first time in several weeks, the block has a REASON to move, unlike the last couple of times the models tried to do so.

Ah, good point. Guess Ohio is screwed again Was hoping to get one big one here before everything starts cutting to the lakes the rest of winter...

[Powerball]

But seriously, thanks to the now frozen grounds and Ohio/Mississippi Valley snowpack (and an increasing Great Lakes snowpack) the potential is much greater this time for an overrunning event.

[JoMo]

It has the right idea, especially if this is anywhere close to being true:

Someone pointed this out over at Stormvista too. I had not checked it in a few days, since most had it staying dead for a while. However a few of the HIRES GFS members had it heading out into phase 4/5 and they turned out to be right. It now forecasts a medium amplitude 4/5 MJO wave, which teleconnects very well with a big hit across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley (favors lake cutters or systems generally going west of the app mtns.). For the first time in several weeks, the block has a REASON to move, unlike the last couple of times the models tried to do so.

[jbcmh81]

That's assuming the Euro is right with moving the block that fast...

It will be IF there is a storm. This is not going to be ours at all. I don't think there's all but a few examples of a major storm in December tracking far enough east to give us in Central Ohio a good snowstorm. December 2004 was as close as they normally get, and that is one of the few exceptions.

[wxdudemike]

It will be IF there is a storm. This is not going to be ours at all. I don't think there's all but a few examples of a major storm in December tracking far enough east to give us in Central Ohio a good snowstorm. December 2004 was as close as they normally get, and that is one of the few exceptions.

Darn climo

[MidwestChaser]

Euro is sexy.

[Chicago Storm]

If this storm gets flushed down the toilet, direct your rotten tomatoes at me. I'm the one who suggested severing the storm discussion from the main Dec thread.

Until then, YUM!

On the other hand, if it's a success i'll gladly take credit.

[michsnowfreak]

Euro is sexy.

Agree

[prinsburg_wx]

lol here.. top one on the left

http://fim.noaa.gov/

I don't have the Brazilian or JMA.

here's days 7 & 8 for you JMA people...lol

[michsnowfreak]

DTX

The active pattern continues next weekend as another strong low

pressure system develops and passes south of the Great Lakes. The

models are not in agreement in handling this low as the European model (ecmwf)

develops a strong low pressure system that closes off Saturday

night...becomes negatively tilted...and plows into the eastern Great

Lakes Sunday into Monday. The GFS keeps the trough open with a

weaker faster moving surface low. These differing solutions offer

vastly different snowfall scenarios as the European model (ecmwf) would bring US a

significant winter storm while the GFS suggests a quicker hitting

lighter snowfall accumulation. Despite these differences snow looks

like it will make a return to the central Great Lakes next weekend

so will place blanket Chancy probability of precipitation in the forecast until the models

converge on a solution.

[Thundersnow12]

LOT

PERHAPS POTENTIAL FOR

BIGGER PRECIP EVENT INDICATED BY ECMWF/GFS BY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BOTH

DEVELOP ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT WAVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS IA INTO THE

LOWER OHIO VALLEY. IF THIS VERIFIED PERFECTLY...COULD BE ANOTHER

SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE REGION. A BIT TOO EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED

JUST YET.

RATZER

MKX

ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY WITH ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING

THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. 12Z GFS IS SLOWER AND LESS

AMPLIFIED...WITH 06Z DGEX MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO.

THIS SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO

SUNDAY AS A 996 MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AREA. MORE OF

AN INVERTED TROUGH ON THE DGEX AND GFS...WITH THE GFS WEAKEST WITH

ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF. 06Z DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF HAS

AROUND 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH...BUT THE ECMWF HAS A MAJOR SYSTEM WITH

AROUND AN INCH OF QPF FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN

INDIANA. BY EXTENDED FORECAST STANDARDS...FAIRLY CLOSE. WILL HAVE

TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE DAYS TO COME.

[Chicago WX]

12z Euro ensemble mean, which can found on this site courtesy of RaleighWx, has a low basically over Louisville at 168. Not too far off from the OP it seems, but still a little southeast.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

[AppsRunner]

12z Euro ensemble mean, which can found on this site courtesy of RaleighWx, has a low basically over Louisville at 168. Not too far off from the OP it seems, but still a little southeast.

http://raleighwx.ame...com/models.html

I'll take care of the image:

[The_Global_Warmer]

It is nice to actually have a chance on this one. would be nice to see this "bomb" out as it passes us. I have no access to the EURO precip maps, but a low going from Central Arkansas to southern MO with the 850 line well SE of here would suggest sleet or snow pending on where 700mb-800mb temps would be. I don't mind if we only got a little bit here as long as this doesn't end up well north of us. If this is hedging on the NAO weakening and moving East that is good, our best storms a lot times end up in pattern changes.

[Chicago WX]

It is nice to actually have a chance on this one. would be nice to see this "bomb" out as it passes us. I have no access to the EURO precip maps, but a low going from Central Arkansas to southern MO with the 850 line well SE of here would suggest sleet or snow pending on where 700mb-800mb temps would be. I don't mind if we only got a little bit here as long as this doesn't end up well north of us. If this is hedging on the NAO weakening and moving East that is good, our best storms a lot times end up in pattern changes.

Word on the street is the 12z Euro has 3"+ for STL.

[jhamps10]

Word on the street is the 12z Euro has 3"+ for STL.

yeah that'll happen....... NOT! if so then I'm headin to the store now

[Chicago WX]

yeah that'll happen....... NOT! if so then I'm headin to the store now

Make sure to wear your winter coat...it's cold out there.

[patrick7032]

DTX

The active pattern continues next weekend as another strong low

pressure system develops and passes south of the Great Lakes. The

models are not in agreement in handling this low as the European model (ecmwf)

develops a strong low pressure system that closes off Saturday

night...becomes negatively tilted...and plows into the eastern Great

Lakes Sunday into Monday. The GFS keeps the trough open with a

weaker faster moving surface low. These differing solutions offer

vastly different snowfall scenarios as the European model (ecmwf) would bring US a

significant winter storm while the GFS suggests a quicker hitting

lighter snowfall accumulation. Despite these differences snow looks

like it will make a return to the central Great Lakes next weekend

so will place blanket Chancy probability of precipitation in the forecast until the models

converge on a solution.

Yeah unfortunately the CMC screws us....right now GFS would be okay, Euro sweet, and CMC rain ONCE AGAIN.

[snowstormcanuck]

Phasing is going to occur too far east on the 18z GFS, but it'll only take the timing to be slowed down a bit to turn things around. Of course, you can get too much of a good thing (12z GGEM).

[patrick7032]

Phasing is going to occur too far east on the 18z GFS, but it'll only take the timing to be slowed down a bit to turn things around. Of course, you can get too much of a good thing (12z GGEM).

Well if I can't have the snow I guess give it to Bo.

[snowstormcanuck]

Well if I can't have the snow I guess give it to Bo.

No.

[snowstormcanuck]

18z DGEX FWIW. Nice inverted sfc trough.

[patrick7032]

DTX

The active pattern continues next weekend as another strong low

pressure system develops and passes south of the Great Lakes. The

models are not in agreement in handling this low as the European model (ecmwf)

develops a strong low pressure system that closes off Saturday

night...becomes negatively tilted...and plows into the eastern Great

Lakes Sunday into Monday. The GFS keeps the trough open with a

weaker faster moving surface low. These differing solutions offer

vastly different snowfall scenarios as the European model (ecmwf) would bring US a

significant winter storm while the GFS suggests a quicker hitting

lighter snowfall accumulation. Despite these differences snow looks

like it will make a return to the central Great Lakes next weekend

so will place blanket Chancy probability of precipitation in the forecast until the models

converge on a solution.

Assuming a 12:1 ratio 12z GFS Bufkit would give KDTX 2.2 inches and KDTW around 3.1....not a big hitter but it would be a start.

[BowMeHunter]

It is nice to actually have a chance on this one. would be nice to see this "bomb" out as it passes us. I have no access to the EURO precip maps, but a low going from Central Arkansas to southern MO with the 850 line well SE of here would suggest sleet or snow pending on where 700mb-800mb temps would be. I don't mind if we only got a little bit here as long as this doesn't end up well north of us. If this is hedging on the NAO weakening and moving East that is good, our best storms a lot times end up in pattern changes.

Looks like 1-1.25" on the Euro but starts out warm.. Still would seem to get around half or more than that precip as frozen and snow in the defor.

[Powerball]

Assuming a 12:1 ratio 12z GFS Bufkit would give KDTX 2.2 inches and KDTW around 3.1....not a big hitter but it would be a start.

Even the GGEM you posted earlier gives us a good front end thumping (2-5"). EURO would probably give someone north of I-94 and west of I-69 in Michigan a foot. The FIM gives everyone over a foot across NW Missouri/Northern Indiana/Northern Illinois/Southern Michigan/NW Ohio.

I was looking at the FIM QPF and temperature profiles, and its scenario would be best for everyone (even Ohio folks). That is the low occludes south of I-70 in Illinois or Indiana and move due east or ENE from there.

[patrick7032]

I didn't look at the FIM but the max QPF on Bufkit for KDTW in a 24 hour period was 0.22....so went slightly over that period length and got the 3.1. Euro would be a nice storm and if it slowed up some it would be during my shift on Sunday....which is possible since models this far out on average have a bias of being 16-24 hours too fast.

As for the CMC know from experience that unless you have a "solid" artic airmass in place....something like 22/16 ahead of the system then sure you can get a quick advisory criteria WAA "burst"....otherwise models typically underestimate the strength of such and the "normal" routine would allow for a quick 1-2 inch event.