jbcmh81 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Isn't this the time frame where the GFS loses a storm only to bring it back later? It didn't lose the storm, it's just too far south for some. Not going to happen that way, but it's nice to look at for those up us closer to 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I don't really find what he said all that inaccurate. Mets do seem to favor consistency in model solutions and the Euro followed by Canadian have been more consistent than the GFS re: this event. Either way, when taking into account their ensembles, it's apparent we're looking at a pretty good spread but with a rough consensus track though the OH Valley. Yeah, I know that, it's just been that point has been repeated frequently. I agree with what his statement was. The first time I read his post it seemed like he was saying something else, but I don't know anymore. Either way consistency is the way to go right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It didn't lose the storm, it's just too far south for some. Not going to happen that way, but it's nice to look at for those up us closer to 40N. Taken at face value, it seems the GFS has a pretty decent snowstorm for St. Louis. Not sure why previous posters are saying it lost the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The one thing going for a more southern track is that the first s/w (the clipper) does a pretty good job of knocking down the SE ridge. If you look at the 84 hour NAM H5 height contours, they're pretty much zonal, or slightly NW to SE oriented. That to me suggests that the main s/w over Montana would get a change to dig, before having to eject out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Here's the mean position at 12z Sunday, with the individual ensemble member positions as well. A lot of the individual ensemble members are even further north/warmer than the OP EURO solution. Not sure of GGEM ensemble biases, but it's a little discouraging. Means the EURO may not be as extreme an outlier as I earlier thought. Are the little red numbers the positions of the lows of the different members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Are the little red numbers the positions of the lows of the different members? Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Just pointing out that a a jet streak amplifying that much , that strong, with good support at h5 would end up a pretty powerful system. What is your take on the set up around that time on the different models I don't have any hard thoughts or calls, it's too early for someone with no met background to say much that isn't a glorified guess. I think it's apparent we'll be dealing with a potent system, moisture won't be an issue with a strong gulf connection and it looks like some serious cold air being funneled in on the north side, it's a recipe for heavy snow and the nice trowal features showing up on different OP runs confirm as much. Everyone from the ohio valley north is in the game for heavy snow. If I had to for the fun of it make a call, i'd go with NE Missourri to RFD to MKE as my early heavy snow target. I'll also say that if any kind of solid phase transpires, with this kind of gulf connection, we'll be looking at a deadly mid level warm layer pulled into the NE quadrant, something we're all familiar with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 This storm is still out of range, but don't forget about the CIPS winter analog website from 72 hours and in: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 This storm is still out of range, but don't forget about the CIPS winter analog website from 72 hours and in: http://www.eas.slu.e...ALOG/analog.php That's what I've been anxiously waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Tough to tell if it'll be as far south as the 6z run, but it sure as hell ain't going to be as far north as the EURO. Not even close to a phase at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I don't have any hard thoughts or calls, it's too early for someone with no met background to say much that isn't a glorified guess. I think it's apparent we'll be dealing with a potent system, moisture won't be an issue with a strong gulf connection and it looks like some serious cold air being funneled in on the north side, it's a recipe for heavy snow and the nice trowal features showing up on different OP runs confirm as much. Everyone from the ohio valley north is in the game for heavy snow. If I had to for the fun of it make a call, i'd go with NE Missourri to RFD to MKE as my early heavy snow target. I'll also say that if any kind of solid phase transpires, with this kind of gulf connection, we'll be looking at a deadly mid level warm layer pulled into the NE quadrant, something we're all familiar with. I should point out that when I say south I think a band will be a bit south of what you outlined. running threw LAF but with a more East to West Orientation. I think you will be on a moderate zone, and I will be in the left over zone. the compromise right now would put LAF in the cross hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z GFS going north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 GFS looks to be heading north. 1000 MB LOW in Mizzouri. 6z had a low much farther south and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Central MO/Central IL getting clocked at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z GFS going north... It's in Kentucky at 120hr. It's probably headed to Cleveland or Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z GFS has sfc low further northwest than 0z at 18z saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z GFS = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Sooooo...I guess I will be hoping for some back end snows...crap! I wish I still lived in Michigan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Bullseye at 120. It can't be wrong, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Bullseye at 120. It can't be wrong, right? More goodness for you at 126 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z GFS = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Central MO/Central IL getting clocked at 114. I bet the mid level warm air makes a lot of that rain, WAA will be strong with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Bullseye at 120. It can't be wrong, right? 120-126 are sweetness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 More goodness for you at 126 too. Well according to the GFS, verbatim, it's a consolation couple of inches of snow after a cold cold rain for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z GFS = 12z GFS= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Lock in the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I bet the mid level warm air makes a lot of that rain, WAA will be strong with this one. If I had a dime for everytime the GFS 2m temp plots were wrong at 114 hours +, well, you see were I'm going with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The main thing imo, is that the GFS has gone north. How far north will it go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Well according to the GFS, verbatim, it's a consolation couple of inches of snow after a cold cold rain for here. Run BUFKIT before you despair. GFS 2m temps are notorious crap in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Run BUFKIT before you despair. GFS 2m temps are notorious crap in this range. No despair, just lol'ing a little at the GFS 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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