Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event?

[buckeye]

Well I gotta think somewhere across Iowa/Northern IL/Southern WI/Parts of Lower MI are going to get a serious snow if things work out just right. I gotta think we see a deepening low pressure with strong upper air support drop from Eastern SD across Northern/Central MO/then make a turn E and NE towards Northern OH before some potential of re development along the New England Coast. But a lot of wobbles are likely to occur and the track will certainly shift around. The snowcover will help enhance baroclinicity which will help to energize this system. I'm thinking someone makes out very well with this system. To early to throw amounts out there but impressive totals will likely occur to be sure.

meh,

I'm goin with a UK-GFS-DGEX blend with a dash of the latest 6z Nocraps. I think we'll see a weaker system tracking thru the northern TN Valley. I'm discounting the ggem due to it's usual bias to wind up storms and pull them too far north too early. I'll also be discounting the euro as an outlier...

by the way, speaking of the euro, anyone notice it lost that post storm eastern trough from hell it had in the 12z run. I was kinda bumm'n about that. It also seems to have shifted all the post instability moisture and lake effect that was over the central lakes and OV, further east

[goknights]

I am riding the euro until it shifts it gives my backyard a large storm. Only kidding it seems as though consensus as of now would be the more southern solution and people smarter than me (hpc) seem to agree at this point.

[Powerball]

GEM is in the middle, looks like rain/ice then snow.

Just took a better look at the GGEM.

Verbatim conditions are marginal for all snow with 2m temps in the mid 30s, granted 2m temps do tend to run a little warmer than the actual surface temps.

That said, I'm still sticking with what I said earler (light rain and the onset, quick flip over to snow). To be fair models tend not to handle dynamic cooling very well.

[Ajdos]

here we go with the East or West of APPL. BLAH!

[A-L-E-K]

Anyone catch DT last night, did he talk about the weather in America or was it an East Coast thing?

[Powerball]

Anyone catch DT last night, did he talk about the weather in America or was it an East Coast thing?

Cliff Notes...

He focused on this storm the whole time. He says a track west of the apps is a lock folllowed by a severe/long duration lake effect event.

He didn't really say much on precipitaiton types and where exactly the low will track (and says all current model solutions are on the table), but he was sure someone will get rocked. Supposedly they're going to have another show Thursday or Friday to discuss that in further detail.

This is all FWIW.

[BowMeHunter]

Anyone catch DT last night, did he talk about the weather in America or was it an East Coast thing?

Powerball summed it up well, but if you would like to listen to it you can get it here http://www.blogtalkradio.com/americanwx

[A-L-E-K]

Cliff Notes...

He focused on this storm the whole time. He says a track west of the apps is a lock folllowed by a severe/long duration lake effect event.

He didn't really say much on precipitaiton types and where exactly the low will track (and says all current model solutions are on the table), but he was sure someone will get rocked. Supposedly they're going to have another show Thursday or Friday to discuss that in further detail.

This is all FWIW.

Thanks, sounds pretty much like what we already know. Major ensemble agreement on a track west of the Apps is pretty solid and i've seen enough great defo bands / trowal features on OP runs to know the heavy snow potential is alive and well.

[A-L-E-K]

Powerball summed it up well, but if you would like to listen to it you can get it here http://www.blogtalkr....com/americanwx

Doesn't sound like there were any must listen nuggets in there. I might check out the late week show. You have an early gut feeling on this one? At all worried about rain up there?

[daddylonglegs]

GFS took everything away this morning...almost nothing now.

[Ajdos]

I this this one stays east of appl, we can't get both storms, the clipper and that massive storm. That's not fair for the eastern folks LOL :/.

[A-L-E-K]

I this this one stays east of appl, we can't get both storms, the clipper and that massive storm. That's not fair for the eastern folks LOL :/.

good call and sound reasoning

[JayPSU]

I'll take the 6Z GFS, thanks. No chance in hell it happens, but nice to look at!

[jcwxguy]

GFS took everything away this morning...almost nothing now.

for me to but then again, its only the 06z run lol

[Indystorm]

Well, since there is so much divergence in models we do have to wait for this system to be sampled as always. Yet I think areas to the east and south have potential for some serious icing over this newly laid snowpack since WAA will be slow to force recovery and heavy system snow could slam the Quad Cities eastward with the I-80 crew happy. For people like me on the lee side of the lakes the LES that follows looks monstrous.

[A-L-E-K]

i see the 6z nocraps just went 'stupid' south.....thru northern Alabama

Minor shift

who the hell looks at the 6z NOGAPS

[SEMIweather]

good call and sound reasoning

[Indystorm]

GFS took everything away this morning...almost nothing now.

Isn't this the time frame where the GFS loses a storm only to bring it back later?

[Stevo6899]

I think right now an average blend of the models is the way to go. The FIM last night showed that. I will say though the euro has been pretty consistent the last few days and I think AFD's and professionals usually side with the most consistent model. The GFS has been all over the place. The GGEM has been somewhat consistent with a west to east track from des moines to north of pittsburgh. With the way the teleconnections are, you can't ignore the NW shift as time goes on.

[AppsRunner]

I think right now an average blend of the models is the way to go. The FIM last night showed that. I will say though the euro has been pretty consistent the last few days and I think AFD's and professionals usually side with the most consistent model. The GFS has been all over the place. The GGEM has been somewhat consistent with a west to east track from des moines to north of pittsburgh. With the way the teleconnections are, you can't ignore the NW shift as time goes on.

No offense, but do you really know what your saying?

[Indystorm]

Good comments as usual for your region, Beau, and thanks for highlighting the LES up here in ne IN and Buffalo. These LaNina winters usually have a mix of warm and cold spells so it will be interesting to see the intensity and placement of storm tracks this season. I think the pattern will be far more active than last season.

[A-L-E-K]

No offense, but do you really know what your saying?

I don't really find what he said all that inaccurate. Mets do seem to favor consistency in model solutions and the Euro followed by Canadian have been more consistent than the GFS re: this event. Either way, when taking into account their ensembles, it's apparent we're looking at a pretty good spread but with a rough consensus track though the OH Valley.

[The_Global_Warmer]

This would likely end up south.

[Powerball]

This would likely end up south.

But it would definitely be a steamer.

Look how far north the 850mb 0*C line is, and that's been slowly edging northward each run.

[Chicago WX]

good call and sound reasoning

+1

[Indystorm]

Good snippet from IWX morning discussion...

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD DEVELOPING STORM FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS

IN AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE

IN THE TRACK WHICH HAS VERY CRITICAL IMPLICATIONS ON PCPN TYPE FOR

OUR AREA. 00Z RUN OF OPERATIONAL GFS DIGS SHORT WAVE QUITE FAR SOUTH

WITH AN EJECTION THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING

IS FURTHER NORTH WITH MEAN SURFACE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. 00Z

ECMWF AND 00Z GEM GLOBAL FURTHER NORTH WITH TRACK...WITH BOTH MODELS

TAKING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW

GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO SHOW A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE GEM AND ECMWF.

GIVEN OUR OBSERVATIONS OF EASTWARD MODEL BIAS OVER THE YEARS AND

ALREADY THIS SEASON...PREFER TO SIDE TOWARD THE GEM AND ECMWF BUT

FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE AT THIS TIME RANGE NOT BUY INTO FAR NORTH

SOLUTIONS ENTIRELY. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS TO BE A GOOD

COMPROMISE FOR NOW SO HAVE LEANED THAT WAY. THIS REQUIRED SLIGHT

ADJUSTMENT TO WEATHER GRIDS FOR SATURDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION

LIKELY LEADING TO A MIXED PCPN TYPE OR EVEN ALL RAIN IF SURFACE

TEMPS WARM AS WARMER MODELS INDICATE. HAVE ADDED RAIN OR SNOW

MENTION FOR NOW. FURTHER REFINEMENT MAY BE NEEDED TO PCPN TYPE

SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON TRENDS IN NEXT SEVERAL MODEL ITERATIONS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNFICANT SNOWFALL AND

EVEN FREEZING RAIN AND ICING TO PARTS OF THE AREA DEPENDING ON THE

FINAL TRACK AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS.

[A-L-E-K]

But it would definitely be a steamer.

Look how far north the 850mb 0*C line is, and that's been slowly edging northward each run.

that's what it looks like to me as well, but really post 84 hr NAM extrapolations FTL, for all on that one.

[Stevo6899]

No offense, but do you really know what your saying?

None taken. Apparently to you I dont, so enlighten me.

[The_Global_Warmer]

that's what it looks like to me as well, but really post 84 hr NAM extrapolations FTL, for all on that one.

Just pointing out that a a jet streak amplifying that much , that strong, with good support at h5 would end up a pretty powerful system. What is your take on the set up around that time on the different models

[ArmyGreens]

Trying to catch up on where the models are now...last time I looked it had the storm coming through the Ohio area saturday into sunday...now looks like more of a sunday event here. How much is this going to slow down?