Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event?

[Chicago Storm]

Started off further south, but ended up the same as the 12z.

[tombo82685]

hr 138 has a sub 996 low over northern indiana lgt to mod precip upper part of lower mich and western mich down to northeast corner of illinois

[tombo82685]

hr 144 has lgt precip over mich...phew

[wxdudemike]

hr 144 has lgt precip over mich...phew

Thanks for the quick updates!

[tombo82685]

no problem

[The_Global_Warmer]

SInce it's day 5, we need to keep verification records, even if you split the difference, the GFS and Euro would both be dead wrong.

[Omahawx]

[TheWeatherPimp]

I could be happy with the 00z UKMET

[Stevo6899]

Similar to the ggem but then geem moves due east from just south of chicago. A mix to snow for detroit?

[The_Global_Warmer]

Euro looks funny.

must occlude real fast.

[michsnowfreak]

Nice model agreement tonight

Actually I like where DTW sits at the moment. Its all you can ask for with the never agreeing, poor models. GFS gives us a little snow, but tracks the storm too far east. Euro is rain and dryslot, with maybe a little snow, tracking the storm too far west. GEM is in the middle, looks like rain/ice then snow.

[Chicago Storm]

ECMWF ensemble mean:

[JoMo]

GGEM mean:

So it looks like the operational run of the GGEM and Euro are farther north than nearly all the models now.

[Omahawx]

NWS in Kansas City just laid on an amazing forecast discussion about where they think the storm track will set up

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[B-Rent]

IND is pretty wish-washy-unconfident

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS

DIVERGE NOW FOR THE WEEKEND STORM...WITH 00Z ECMWF BEING MORE OF AN

OUTLIER OUT TO THE WEST...WITH 12Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN

FARTHER EAST. ALTHOUGH ECMWF IS USUALLY FASTER AT CATCHING SHIFTS IN

THE TRACK...PER HPC THE 00Z EURO IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF ITS

ENSEMBLES. THUS WILL GO CLOSE TO HPC/GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW.

FIRST WEAK SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY TO THE NORTH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL

BE LOW. WENT LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT REMOVED

POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS HAVE SPED THINGS UP A BIT.

OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING PRECIP BACK INTO

THE AREA ON SATURDAY SO ADDED LOW POPS THEN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD

WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER

AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN AND CHANGE THE TYPE TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT

INTO SUNDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE. UPPED POPS A BIT

BUT STILL KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY. IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND

THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR

SNOW...SO ADDED LOW POPS THEN.

[snowstormcanuck]

ECMWF ensemble mean:

Looks like the OP EURO is an outlier with its far northern solution. Normally you throw out the outliers, but when it's the EURO, it's a bit harder to do.

[snowstormcanuck]

GGEM mean:

So it looks like the operational run of the GGEM and Euro are farther north than nearly all the models now.

Here's the mean position at 12z Sunday, with the individual ensemble member positions as well.

A lot of the individual ensemble members are even further north/warmer than the OP EURO solution. Not sure of GGEM ensemble biases, but it's a little discouraging. Means the EURO may not be as extreme an outlier as I earlier thought.

[Stebo]

Here's the mean position at 12z Sunday, with the individual ensemble member positions as well.

A lot of the individual ensemble members are even further north/warmer than the OP EURO solution. Not sure of GGEM ensemble biases, but it's a little discouraging. Means the EURO may not be as extreme an outlier as I earlier thought.

Yeah this looks like its all over the road, overall though it looks like the models either held their grounds or trended south some, which is what I was expecting with a few of them being way to the left, and even those that are to the left occlude quickly and shunt the warm air to the east quicker. Honestly right now looking at the ensemble means should help give a bit of an idea as the means are fairly clustered with a track across the Ohio River. Taking their bias into effect and one would expect a track a little further north maybe through Southern IN and Central Ohio and into Western PA/NY. But this is still 5 days out and things can and will change.

[IWXwx]

True, but I'm not feeling much if any snowfall here with this system. Still, depending on how much rain we get, with the cold air rushing in on the backside, it's going to be quite icy.

I'm on the Chicago WX train on this one. Obviously anyone from Northern MN to Southern MO is on the game right now, but right now my gut says it s gonna be a little warm for S IL, most of IN, and SE MI.

I'll let you guys hash it our and check back in Friday morning after the first wave is progressing through the area.

Yeah...... right, like I'm not gonna read every word written here.

[Stebo]

I'm on the Chicago WX train on this one. Obviously anyone from Northern MN to Southern MO is on the game right now, but right now my gut says it s gonna be a little warm for S IL, most of IN, and SE MI.

I'll let you guys hash it our and check back in Friday morning after the first wave is progressing through the area.

Yeah...... right, like I'm not gonna read every word written here.

It all depends on if it is south (GFS) or occludes (euro/GGem) Id say most of IN north of 70 is in the game and most of N Ohio from Dayton to Canton are in this too.

[snowstormcanuck]

I'm on the Chicago WX train on this one. Obviously anyone from Northern MN to Southern MO is on the game right now, but right now my gut says it s gonna be a little warm for S IL, most of IN, and SE MI.

I'll let you guys hash it our and check back in Friday morning after the first wave is progressing through the area.

Yeah...... right, like I'm not gonna read every word written here.

[A-L-E-K]

GFS has moved back south and the Euro and Canadian have remained more consistent with a northern track, so i guess the good new is, we haven't seen a low track towards Green Bay yet. Still a solid 5 days out, probably another 3 days of madness before we get close to consensus. The trowal features showing up on some of these runs have been really tantilizing. If the phase works out, whoever ends up at the pivot point and gets into that bad boy will see some serious snow.

[A-L-E-K]

ECMWF ensemble mean:

Considering we're still a long ways out, that's pretty nice.

[Stebo]

GFS has moved back south and the Euro and Canadian have remained more consistent with a northern track, so i guess the good new is, we haven't seen a low track towards Green Bay yet. Still a solid 5 days out, probably another 3 days of madness before we get close to consensus. The trowal features showing up on some of these runs have been really tantilizing. If the phase works out, whoever ends up at the pivot point and gets into that bad boy will see some serious snow.

Yes I agree with this 100%, and I think the GFS corrects itself in the next day. Its cold bias is showing right now, thus the vort digging to TN.

[Stebo]

Considering we're still a long ways out, that's pretty nice.

Yeah the Euros ensemble mean have been locked in on that track for a few days, as has the GFS ensemble mean.

[buckeye]

i see the 6z nocraps just went 'stupid' south.....thru northern Alabama

Minor shift

[Justin]

Well I gotta think somewhere across Iowa/Northern IL/Southern WI/Parts of Lower MI are going to get a serious snow if things work out just right. I gotta think we see a deepening low pressure with strong upper air support drop from Eastern SD across Northern/Central MO/then make a turn E and NE towards Northern OH before some potential of re development along the New England Coast. But a lot of wobbles are likely to occur and the track will certainly shift around. The snowcover will help enhance baroclinicity which will help to energize this system. I'm thinking someone makes out very well with this system. To early to throw amounts out there but impressive totals will likely occur to be sure.

[A-L-E-K]

Yeah the Euros ensemble mean have been locked in on that track for a few days, as has the GFS ensemble mean.

The ensembles are probably the way to go for now in terms of guessing slp track, in which case a track though the OH Valley is looking pretty good, with north of there more likely than south.

Well I gotta think somewhere across Iowa/Northern IL/Southern WI/Parts of Lower MI are going to get a serious snow if things work out just right. I gotta think we see a deepening low pressure with strong upper air support drop from Eastern SD across Northern/Central MO/then make a turn E and NE towards Northern OH before some potential of re development along the New England Coast. But a lot of wobbles are likely to occur and the track will certainly shift around. The snowcover will help enhance baroclinicity which will help to energize this system. I'm thinking someone makes out very well with this system. To early to throw amounts out there but impressive totals will likely occur to be sure.

It sure smells like a good one.

[OceanStWx]

Digging through the ECMWF ensembles, the op run is significantly farther north. The ensemble mean center is in the vicinity of the PAH CWA. This is suggesting to me that the op run is struggling with whether to run with the primary energy or the triple point. I'm hedging towards the southern track right now, but either solution would give me a heckuva storm for my weekend shifts.

[A-L-E-K]

HPC liking an OH Valley low for now, similar to the GFS/Euro means.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mhwbgfnl_conus.gif