Stevo6899 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Unless the polar vortex drops south more, that will keep it from cutting north some. What causes the pv to come further south? A strong low? Any kind of low like the first clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 12z Euro ensemble mean images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 12z Euro ensemble mean images. That's one hell of a spread on the ENS members. It's also clearly having some trouble on where it wants to pop the primary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 That's one hell of a spread on the ENS members. It's also clearly having some trouble on where it wants to pop the primary low. Going to be a long week eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 That's one hell of a spread on the ENS members. It's also clearly having some trouble on where it wants to pop the primary low. Yes it is. Going to be a long week eh? And yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Going to be a long week eh? Even though anything close to a final track is far from settled, it sure looks like the shot of a potentially major event for someone in the region is pretty damn good for 100+hrs out. It would be nice if we had one of those super rare storms that finds a solution around 84hrs and sticks with it until go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 So the Euro ens. as a whole don't support the more extreme north idea the Euro has...But with all that spread some of the members could be showing a GFS type track and some of the members could have a track *closer* to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yeah, if it pops the primary in OK/N TX, I will be in the best mood ever. I don't think it will happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 ILX thinks mostly rain for central IL LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTER ANOTHER QUIET DAY ON FRIDAY...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD STILL EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER 12Z 6 DEC MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A MORE NORTHERN TRACK SIMILAR TO THE 00Z 6 DEC ECMWF/CANADIAN. GIVEN CONSISTENT SIGNAL...HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION...WHICH TRACKS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FROM IOWA SATURDAY MORNING...TO LAKE HURON BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS MORE NORTHERN TRACK...ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH...TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH...SO ANY SNOW THAT FALLS DURING THE DAY WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO ACCUMULATE. AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANGING ANY LINGERING RAIN TO SNOW. AT THIS POINT...THINK THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL END BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE RATHER MINOR. BIGGEST HAZARD MAY TURN OUT TO BE FALLING TEMPS CREATING POTENTIALLY ICY ROAD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BIG STORY WILL BE THE VERY WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS POTENTIALLY GUST OVER 30 MPH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 12z Euro ensemble mean images. Nice....now JUST SLOW DOWN A DAY....then I would have a ball at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 ILX may be right, but it seems awfully early for them to commit to a track this far out. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 COld air on the backside shows single digit highs for me Looks like WI could cash in on this one for snow and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 DTX "ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THECENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND UNLIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...SHOULDBE ABLE TO MERGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICODURING THE WEEKEND. THROW IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE PHASING WITH THE POLARJET SINKING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA....AND IT LOOKS LIKE A MAJORSTORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAINQUESTION BEING WHETHER IT WILL BE AN EASTERN SEABOARD BOMB...ORWESTERN APPALACHIANS LOW-PITTSBURGH PA PRIMARY LOW WHICH IS SLOW TOTRANSFER TO THE COAST...AND THUS A FAVORABLE SYSTEM UP FOR HEAVYSNOW FOR OUR CWA. A THIRD SCENARIO IS EVEN FARTHER WEST TRACKRESULTING FROM QUICKER PHASING/RAPID DEEPENING...RESULTING IN RAINFOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...BELOW NORMALTEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...FORTEMPS...WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY FORMAXES...BASED ON SLIGHTLY COLDER 925/850 MB TEMPS COMPARED TOTODAY. INCREASING CHANCE SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING THENEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD RESPONSE INSURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH MODEST SNOW COVER...AND MINS SHOULD HAVENO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE TEENS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 ILX may be right, but it seems awfully early for them to commit to a track this far out. Interesting. I agree....Bufkit GFS does show at KSBN it starts out as -FZRA for 6 hours total accum 0.15 then switches over to snow with about 3 inches, but it's way to early to pin down tracks or amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I agree....Bufkit GFS does show at KSBN it starts out as -FZRA for 6 hours total accum 0.15 then switches over to snow with about 3 inches, but it's way to early to pin down tracks or amounts. He was talking about ILX, not IWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Indiana offices, discuss, still hope..... Webster AFD (snip): NEXT..STRONGER..SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND PHASES WITH HUDSON BAY VORTEX PROVIDING A POTENT SYSTEM DIGGING A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH INTO THE EAST BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TRACKS OF SFC LOW VARY GREATLY WITH ECMWF INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. OBVIOUSLY GREAT IMPACT ON POTENTIAL PTYPE AND AMOUNTS AND WONT ATTEMPT MUCH DETAIL GIVEN 5 DAY LEAD TIME BUT ALSO WONT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT EITHER SOLN AND RETAIN A MIXED WORDING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MUCH COLDER AIR IS POISED TO INVADE THE REGION WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BECOMING EVEN COLDER THIS RUN...DOWN TO -20C AT H85 SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT SUNDAY HIGHS FAIRLY MODERATE NEAR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE JUST BLO FREEZING IND AFD (snip): OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY SO ADDED LOW POPS THEN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN AND CHANGE THE TYPE TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE. UPPED POPS A BIT BUT STILL KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY. IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW...SO ADDED LOW POPS THEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH MODELS AGAIN IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE 850MB TEMPS ARE -10C OR SO ACROSS THE LAKE THE HIGH SHOULD LIMIT ANY LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT TO FLURRIES. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE GRIDS AND NOTHING MENTIONED IN ZONES. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START WITH HOWEVER DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL BRING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S SO COULD SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO RAIN MID/LATE DAY BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH SNOW. SHOULD SEE A BREAK THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN LAKES ON FRIDAY AND WITH IT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD GET INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH. NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL COME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING DEEP LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. STORM TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL FOR PLACEMENT OF POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW BAND AND LIKELY LAKE EFFECT BEHIND. SHOULD BE AN INTERESTING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion -- This is part of the Area Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service in Cleveland OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 He was talking about ILX, not IWX. Bufkit for South Bend is just as scary with that zr info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 He was talking about ILX, not IWX. I know but figured would mention the KSBN just to give an idea on the freezing line....I havent loaded "out of area" files into the new Bufkit version yet....mentioned it basically in case the flat west to east track verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I know but figured would mention the KSBN just to give an idea on the freezing line....I havent loaded "out of area" files into the new Bufkit version yet....mentioned it basically in case the flat west to east track verifies. Gotcha. But yeah if the GFS would be close to the actual "solution", it looks like there may be a bit of mix across some areas in IL, IN, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 18z GFS going with a more southern low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 18z = Jackpot for Chicago/N. IN and into MI, so it obviously is wrong, plus its 18z. Still pretty pictures though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 18z = Jackpot for Chicago/N. IN and into MI, so it obviously is wrong, plus its 18z. Still pretty pictures though yep, a real boom goes the dynamite kind of run. Have had a few of those with this system already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 18z = Jackpot for Chicago/N. IN and into MI, so it obviously is wrong, plus its 18z. Still pretty pictures though Nah, this has a great potential to verify as I will be out of town (in Gaylord, MI). Everytime I leave home in the winter it snows a lot. So, I go up to Gaylord for the snow and snow mobiling and instead there will be a few flurries in Gaylord while back home sees a foot of beautfiul synoptic snow. Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 18z GFS is sexy. Doesn't mean much in the grand scheme, but still sexy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 yep, a real boom goes the dynamite kind of run. Have had a few of those with this system already. Yeah Alek, the potential most certainly is there, its all in the degree of phasing, this run like the 12z Euro yesterday was higher amounts of phasing, thus the explosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 yep, a real boom goes the dynamite kind of run. Have had a few of those with this system already. Would love this QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 18 z GFS through 144 snow depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 the other 18Z crappy models are no help either...18Z NOCRAPS further north than 12Z has it in se MN at 120 and 18Z DGEX is way south n TN to VA by 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Latest GFS sticking with the ensemble solutions on the southern low it looks like, which seems to be the most stable track so far (continuity wise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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