Remnants of Emily Part II: 295 Miles SSE Of Cape Hatteras, NC

[Ed Lizard]

The first part of your analysis (which I agree with) doesn't support your last sentence. If all of this stuff is going to be detrimental for convection, why are you worried about dumping heavy rains in the disaster area?

Because the well displaced area of convection won't dissipate immediately. The low cloud swirl spinning by and missing doesn't mean the convection will be gone before it arrives.

Edit to add- Wiki'd Chris- look how far the swirl can get from convection.

[wxmx]

Okay I see what you are saying... although right now, this seems unlikely unless Emily completely dissipates along with most of her convection, then the remnants go into the Gulf and redevelop there.... also unlikely IMO.

I don't think it has to dissipate to get it to the GOM... in it's current state I can't see how it could turn north much... but I agree that to preserve it's current state without weakening would be very hard... that's why the NE GOM solution is preferred ATTM.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

That doesn't seem to be the case with the 12z GFS... if the models end up being too rightward with the track, it will be due to under-forecasting the mid-level ridge over Emily.

Today's 12Z GFS did a much better job with initialization, I agree.. but I'm referring to prior runs when Emily was ridiculously broad and models weren't picking that up well, as well as when she looked decent on satellite, but the radar presentation was quite questionable.

Today is really the first day we've actually had a good look at her center of circulation... so that helps a lot.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

I don't think it has to dissipate to get it to the GOM... in it's current state I can't see how it could turn north much... but I agree that to preserve it's current state without weakening would be very hard... that's why the NE GOM solution is preferred ATTM.

Oh the dissipation was in reference to it getting stuck under the GOM ridge... Emily definitely doesn't have to dissipate for the NE GOM/W coast of FL solution.

[Ed Lizard]

Anyone think its possible whatever mid level circulation might be left foes get pulled Northward toward more favorable territory and tries to develop a new LLC near the Bahamas somewhere?

I will say, still looks like a tongue of lower PW North of the G. Antilles. Shear may be forecast to be more favorable, but WV and TPW loops don't look all that great.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[Srain]

CARCAH tasking schedule is out. I'm liking the G-IV and NOAA research flights added. Perhaps some additional help for the NCEP Globals...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 03 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
        VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2011
        TCPOD NUMBER.....11-064

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. TROPICAL STORM EMILY
      FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72        FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
      A. 04/1800Z,05/0000Z         A. 05/0000Z
      B. AFXXX 1105A EMILY         B. NOAA9 1205A EMILY
      C. 04/1530Z                  C. 04/1730Z
      D. 20.0N 74.0W               D. NA
      E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2330Z      E. NA
      F. SFC TO 15,000 FT          F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

      FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70     FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
      A. 05/0600Z,1200Z            A. 05/1200Z
      B. AFXXX 1305A EMILYE        B. NOAA2 1405A EMILY
      C. 05/0315Z                  C. 05/0800Z
      D. 22.0N 75.7W               D. 19.0N 73.0W
      E. 05/0530Z TO 05/1130Z      E. 05/1000Z TO 05/1400Z
      F. SFC TO 15,000 FT          F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
      A. BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES.
      B. A G-IV MISSION FOR 06/0000Z.
      C. P-3 MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS.
   3. REMARK: A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH MISSION AT 04/20000Z.

[am19psu]

CARCAH tasking schedule is out. I'm liking the G-IV and NOAA research flights added. Perhaps some additional help for the NCEP Globals...

I know at least the European also assimilates these obs. Not sure if the UKM or CMC do, too.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

I will be worlds beyond ecstatic once some GIV data gets ingested into the globals.

[Ed Lizard]

Do the WP-3Ds usually fly higher altitudes because of airframe age/turbulence concerns, or is that strictly a function of the research mission.

The tasking is the same as for the Hercules, but I've noticed they seem to fly higher.

[Srain]

Interesting to see convection firing N and NE of the exposed center now...

[phil882]

Interesting to see convection firing N and NE of the exposed center now...

Really hoping my ideas pan out this afternoon with the developing convection helping to draw the circulation further north, or otherwise I'm going to look really stupid

[skierinvermont]

Really hoping my ideas pan out this afternoon with the developing convection helping to draw the circulation further north, or otherwise I'm going to look really stupid

so far so good in terms of the location of the convection

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Interesting to see convection firing N and NE of the exposed center now...

It's going to be exceptionally difficult for that to wrap around though until it passes the island, though. In fact, enough dry air may wrap around to cause that to fluctuate.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Really hoping my ideas pan out this afternoon with the developing convection helping to draw the circulation further north, or otherwise I'm going to look really stupid

The western part of the circulation is just now traveling south of the highest peaks on the island...it will be interesting to see if it is able to maintain that convection.

[hurricaneman]

Really hoping my ideas pan out this afternoon with the developing convection helping to draw the circulation further north, or otherwise I'm going to look really stupid

This storm is making everybody look stupid, even the NHC which is a real rarity

[phil882]

It's going to be exceptionally difficult for that to wrap around though until it passes the island, though. In fact, enough dry air may wrap around to cause that to fluctuate.

While its certainly possible we might see more dry air intrusions in the future, but I'd suggest that the atmosphere in the general vicinity of Emily has actually become significantly more moist according to the Total Precipitable Water product from CIMSS.

[phil882]

The western part of the circulation is just now traveling south of the highest peaks on the island...it will be interesting to see if it is able to maintain that convection.

Frictional convergence due to the slowing of the winds near the terrain might actually help to enhance the convection this afternoon to the north of Emily.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

While its certainly possible we might see more dry air intrusions in the future, but I'd suggest that the atmosphere in the general vicinity of Emily has actually become significantly more moist according to the Total Precipitable Water product from CIMSS.

My argument is more based off of the idea of dry flows coming off the lee of the mountains in Hispaniola which has plagued cyclones moving too close to the island, but not making landfall.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Frictional convergence due to the slowing of the winds near the terrain might actually help to enhance the convection this afternoon to the north of Emily.

On the windward side, yes I agree.

[flweathernerd]

Do the WP-3Ds usually fly higher altitudes because of airframe age/turbulence concerns, or is that strictly a function of the research mission.

The tasking is the same as for the Hercules, but I've noticed they seem to fly higher.

Function of the research mission. The WP-3Ds service ceiling is 27,000 feet and they are tasked with the low level research of the storm.

[HurricaneJosh]

Interesting to see convection firing N and NE of the exposed center now...

Interesting for you, maybe. Enjoy!

[Srain]

Interesting for you, maybe. Enjoy!

Troll...

[Inudaw]

So what will it take to get one of these name systems to reach hurricane status.. :X

[phil882]

My argument is more based off of the idea of dry flows coming off the lee of the mountains in Hispaniola which has plagued cyclones moving too close to the island, but not making landfall.

On the windward side, yes I agree.

The thing is if convergence starts increasing over the windward side (right side) of the circulation, with divergence and dry down-sloping flow on the leeward side (left side), won't that mean the more favorable conditions for vortex maintenance be on the right side of the circulation which could cause the center to move more rightward? If any other pro-mets want to chime in that would also be great, as I'm not sure if I'm entirely correct in theory.

[Cory]

So what will it take to get one of these name systems to reach hurricane status.. :X

Bring rainstorm back.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Okay, slightly off topic, but Dominican Spanish is apparently quite weird. I've been attempting to find a radar from ONAMET, of which there is a link... but when you click on it, I think it accuses you of trying to molest them.... besides that, some words are quite different from Mexican or Cuban Spanish, it seems (this coming from someone whose major foreign language background is French, of course, so take it with a grain of salt).

[Ed Lizard]

Function of the research mission. The WP-3Ds service ceiling is 27,000 feet and they are tasked with the low level research of the storm.

That told me nothing as to why the Hercules fly low level missions lower than the Orions. Thanks.

[Mallow]

I'm watching the visible satellite imagery, and it seems to me that part of the problem is that, while overall shear from the surface to the tropopause isn't that great (it's there, but relatively weak), there are multiple layers of shear in there. It seems to me as if there is moderate northerly flow at the mid-levels, and then southerly flow at the upper-levels. That would make relative shear between the mid- and upper-levels quite high.

I say this because it looks like new convection starts off with the tops being blown southward, but the tops of the tallest convection (highest cirrus) are being blown northward. Am I seeing this correctly?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

EDIT: Just remembered Phil's post earlier which featured a sounding. Looked at it, and verified.

Of course, the dry air is a major factor, too... but I can't imagine ~50kts of shear between 300mb and 200mb helps.

Okay, slightly off topic, but Dominican Spanish is apparently quite weird. I've been attempting to find a radar from ONAMET, of which there is a link... but when you click on it, I think it accuses you of trying to molest them.... besides that, some words are quite different from Mexican or Cuban Spanish, it seems (this coming from someone whose major foreign language background is French, of course, so take it with a grain of salt).

"No molesta" means "do not bother it".

[Ed Lizard]

I'm watching the visible satellite imagery, and it seems to me that part of the problem is that, while overall shear from the surface to the tropopause isn't that great (it's there, but relatively weak), there are multiple layers of shear in there. It seems to me as if there is moderate northerly flow at the mid-levels, and then southerly flow at the upper-levels. That would make relative shear between the mid- and upper-levels quite high.

I say this because it looks like new convection starts off with the tops being blown southward, but the tops of the tallest convection (highest cirrus) are being blown northward. Am I seeing this correctly?

http://wwwghcc.msfc....i-bin/post-goes

Phil posted this about 3 pages back...

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

The thing is if convergence starts increasing over the windward side (right side) of the circulation, with divergence and dry down-sloping flow on the leeward side (left side), won't that mean the more favorable conditions for vortex maintenance be on the right side of the circulation which could cause the center to move more rightward? If any other pro-mets want to chime in that would also be great, as I'm not sure if I'm entirely correct in theory.

It depends on the dry air entirely, I think, in this instance... since dry air is so disrupting to tropical convection, if a cyclone is able to wrap that around the center without it moistening, then it could kill off the convection on the east side as well... and the convection certainly wouldn't be able to wrap into the dry air flow on the west side.

You are right in the sense that convection on that NE side would allow the system overall to turn more rightward... provided that the convection is in sufficient amounts with respect to the strength of the vortex and the system itself is able to maintain that convection.

There is one caveat... I believe that there is some evidence that with a vortex like we have with Emily... somewhat weak... it is more difficult for it to cross such high peaks, and in fact, it could "bounce" off the mountains/islands. I know it is the case with much stronger hurricanes (such as Ivan which managed to "bounce" off of Jamaica... but I believe this had more to do with the angle of approach as well to Jamaica vs. Emily's more parallelishness to Hispaniola.)